Pre-symptomatic drought stress prediction is of great relevance in precision plant protection, ultimately helping to meet the challenge of "How to feed a hungry world?". Unfortunately, it also presents unique computational problems in scale and interpretability: it is a temporal, large-scale prediction task, e.g., when monitoring plants over time using hyperspectral imaging, and features are `things' with a `biological' meaning and interpretation and not just mathematical abstractions computable for any data. In this paper we propose Dirichlet-aggregation regression (DAR) to meet the challenge. DAR represents all data by means of convex combinations of only few extreme ones computable in linear time and easy to interpret.Then, it puts a Gaussian process prior on the Dirichlet distributions induced on the simplex spanned by the extremes. The prior can be a function of any observed meta feature such as time, location, type of fertilization, and plant species. We evaluated DAR on two hyperspectral image series of plants over time with about 2 (resp. 5.8) Billion matrix entries. The results demonstrate that DAR can be learned efficiently and predicts stress well before it becomes visible to the human eye.

Illegal extraction of forest resources is fought, in many developing countries, by patrols that try to make this activity less profitable, using the threat of confiscation. With a limited budget, officials will try to distribute the patrols throughout the forest intelligently, in order to most effectively limit extraction. Prior work in forest economics has formalized this as a Stackelberg game, one very different in character from the discrete Stackelberg problem settings previously studied in the multiagent literature. Specifically, the leader wishes to minimize the distance by which a profit-maximizing extractor will trespass into the forest---or to maximize the radius of the remaining ``pristine'' forest area. The follower's cost-benefit analysis of potential trespass distances is affected by the likelihood of being caught and suffering confiscation. In this paper, we give a near-optimal patrol allocation algorithm and a 1/2-approximation algorithm, the latter of which is more efficient and yields simpler, more practical patrol allocations. Our simulations indicate that these algorithms substantially outperform existing heuristic allocations.

Local and distributed power generation is increasingly relianton renewable power sources, e.g., solar (photovoltaic or PV) andwind energy. The integration of such sources into the power grid ischallenging, however, due to their variable and intermittent energyoutput. To effectively use them on alarge scale, it is essential to be able to predict power generation at afine-grained level. We describe a novel Bayesian ensemble methodologyinvolving three diverse predictors. Each predictor estimates mixingcoefficients for integrating PV generation output profiles but capturesfundamentally different characteristics. Two of them employ classicalparameterized (naive Bayes) and non-parametric (nearest neighbor) methods tomodel the relationship between weather forecasts and PV output. The thirdpredictor captures the sequentiality implicit in PV generation and uses motifsmined from historical data to estimate the most likely mixture weights usinga stream prediction methodology. We demonstrate the success and superiority of ourmethods on real PV data from two locations that exhibit diverse weatherconditions. Predictions from our model can be harnessed to optimize schedulingof delay tolerant workloads, e.g., in a data center.

One of the most challenging problems on modern urban planning and one of the goals to be solved for smart city design is that of urban waste disposal. Given urban population growth, and that the amount of waste generated by each of us citizens is also growing, the total amount of waste to be collected and treated is growing dramatically (EPA 2011), becoming one sensitive issue for local governments. A modern technique for waste collection that is steadily being adopted is automated vacuum waste collection. This technology uses air suction on a closed network of underground pipes to move waste from the collection points to the processing station, reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as inconveniences to citizens (odors, noise, . . . ) and allowing better waste reuse and recycling. This technique is open to optimize energy consumption because moving huge amounts of waste by air impulsion requires a lot of electric power. The described problem challenge here is, precisely, that of organizing and scheduling waste collection to minimize the amount of energy per ton of collected waste in such a system via the use of Artificial Intelligence techniques. This kind of problems are an inviting opportunity to showcase the possibilities that AI for Computational Sustainability offers.

One issue facing agents that accumulate large bodies of knowledge is determining whether they have knowl- edge that is relevant to its current goals. Performing comprehensive searches of long-term memory in every situation can be computationally expensive and disrup- tive to task reasoning. In this paper, we demonstrate that the recognition judgment — a heuristic for whether memory structures have been previously perceived — can serve as a low-cost indicator of the existence of potentially relevant knowledge. We present an approach for computing both context-dependent and context- independent recognition judgments using processes and data shared with declarative memories. We then de- scribe an initial, efficient implementation in the Soar cognitive architecture and evaluate our system in a word sense disambiguation task, showing that it reduces the number of memory searches without degrading agent performance.

Creating software agents that learn interactively requires the ability to learn from a small number of trials, extracting general, flexible knowledge that can drive behavior from observation and interaction. We claim that qualitative models provide a useful intermediate level of causal representation for dynamic domains, including the formulation of strategies and tactics. We argue that qualitative models are quickly learnable, and enable model-based reasoning techniques to be used to recognize, operationalize, and construct more strategic knowledge. This paper describes an approach to incrementally learning qualitative influences by demonstration in the context of a strategy game. We show how the learned model can help a system play by enabling it to explain which actions could contribute to maximizing a quantitative goal. We also show how reasoning about the model allows it to reformulate a learning problem to address delayed effects and credit assignment, such that it can improve its performance on more strategic tasks such as city placement.

In order to collaborate with people in the real world, cognitive systems must be able to represent and reason about spatial regions in human environments. Consider the command "go to the front of the classroom". The spatial region mentioned (the front of the classroom) is not perceivable using geometry alone. Instead it is defined by its functional use, implied by nearby objects and their configuration. In this paper, we define such areas as context-dependent spatial regions and present a cognitive system able to learn them by combining qualitative spatial representations, semantic labels, and analogy. The system is capable of generating a collection of qualitative spatial representations describing the configuration of the entities it perceives in the world. It can then be taught context-dependent spatial regions using anchor pointsdefined on these representations. From this we then demonstrate how an existing computational model of analogy can be used to detect context-dependent spatial regions in previously unseen rooms. To evaluate this process we compare detected regions to annotations made on maps of real rooms by human volunteers.

Episodic memory endows agents with numerous general cognitive capabilities, such as action modeling and virtual sensing. However, for long-lived agents, there are numerous unexplored computational challenges in supporting useful episodic-memory functions while maintaining real-time reactivity. In this paper, we review the implementation of episodic memory in Soar and present an expansive evaluation of that system. We demonstrate useful applications of episodic memory across a variety of domains, including games, mobile robotics, planning, and linguistics. In these domains, we characterize properties of environments, tasks, and episodic cues that affect performance, and evaluate the ability of Soar’s episodic memory to support hours to days of real-time operation.

As the popularity of the social media increases, as evidenced in Twitter, Facebook and China's Renren, spamming activities also picked up in numbers and variety. On social network sites, spammers often disguise themselves by creating fake accounts and hijacking normal users' accounts for personal gains. Different from the spammers in traditional systems such as SMS and email, spammers in social media behave like normal users and they continue to change their spamming strategies to fool anti spamming systems. However, due to the privacy and resource concerns, many social media websites cannot fully monitor all the contents of users, making many of the previous approaches, such as topology-based and content-classification-based methods, infeasible to use. In this paper, we propose a novel method for spammer detection in social networks that exploits both social activities as well as users' social relations in an innovative and highly scalable manner. The proposed method detects spammers following collective activities based on users' social actions and relations. We have empirically tested our method on data from Renren.com, which is the largest social network in China, and demonstrated that our new method can improve the detection performance significantly.

Relation extraction, the process of converting natural language text into structured knowledge, is increasingly important. Most successful techniques use supervised machine learning to generate extractors from sentences that have been manually labeled with the relations' arguments. Unfortunately, these methods require numerous training examples, which are expensive and time-consuming to produce. This paper presents ontological smoothing, a semi-supervisedtechnique that learns extractors for a set of minimally-labeledrelations. Ontological smoothing has three phases. First, itgenerates a mapping between the target relations and a backgroundknowledge-base. Second, it uses distant supervision toheuristically generate new training examples for the targetrelations. Finally, it learns an extractor from a combination of theoriginal and newly-generated examples. Experiments on 65 relationsacross three target domains show that ontological smoothing candramatically improve precision and recall, even rivaling fully supervisedperformance in many cases.