The extensive and sophisticated subject of proof planning is not especially related to induction, but addresses automated theorem proving in general. We cannot cover it here and have to refer the reader to the standard publications on the subject.

It is well known that good initializations can improve the speed and accuracy of the solutions of many nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms. Many NMF algorithms are sensitive with respect to the initialization of W or H or both. This is especially true of algorithms of the alternating least squares (ALS) type, including the two new ALS algorithms that we present in this paper. We compare the results of six initialization procedures (two standard and four new) on our ALS algorithms. Lastly, we discuss the practical issue of choosing an appropriate convergence criterion.

Over the last decade, there has been growing interest in the use or measures or change in belief for reasoning with uncertainty in artificial intelligence research. An important characteristic of several methodologies that reason with changes in belief or belief updates, is a property that we term modularity. We call updates that satisfy this property modular updates. Whereas probabilistic measures of belief update - which satisfy the modularity property were first discovered in the nineteenth century, knowledge and discussion of these quantities remains obscure in artificial intelligence research. We define modular updates and discuss their inappropriate use in two influential expert systems.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used for modeling decision-making problems in robotics, automated control, and economics. Traditional MDPs assume that the decision maker (DM) knows all states and actions. However, this may not be true in many situations of interest. We define a new framework, MDPs with unawareness (MDPUs) to deal with the possibilities that a DM may not be aware of all possible actions. We provide a complete characterization of when a DM can learn to play near-optimally in an MDPU, and give an algorithm that learns to play near-optimally when it is possible to do so, as efficiently as possible. In particular, we characterize when a near-optimal solution can be found in polynomial time.

We consider how an agent should update her uncertainty when it is represented by a set P of probability distributions and the agent observes that a random variable X takes on value x, given that the agent makes decisions using the minimax criterion, perhaps the best-studied and most commonly-used criterion in the literature. We adopt a game-theoretic framework, where the agent plays against a bookie, who chooses some distribution from P. We consider two reasonable games that differ in what the bookie knows when he makes his choice. Anomalies that have been observed before, like time inconsistency, can be understood as arising because different games are being played, against bookies with different information. We characterize the important special cases in which the optimal decision rules according to the minimax criterion amount to either conditioning or simply ignoring the information. Finally, we consider the relationship between conditioning and calibration when uncertainty is described by sets of probabilities.

It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information if your uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures. These include situations in which the information is relevant for the prediction task at hand. In the non-Bayesian analysis, we show how ignoring information avoids dilation, the phenomenon that additional pieces of information sometimes lead to an increase in uncertainty. In the Bayesian analysis, we show that for small sample sizes and certain prediction tasks, the Bayesian posterior based on a noninformative prior yields worse predictions than simply ignoring the given information.

As examples such as the Monty Hall puzzle show, applying conditioning to update a probability distribution on a ``naive space', which does not take into account the protocol used, can often lead to counterintuitive results. Here we examine why. A criterion known as CAR (coarsening at random) in the statistical literature characterizes when ``naive' conditioning in a naive space works. We show that the CAR condition holds rather infrequently. We then consider more generalized notions of update such as Jeffrey conditioning and minimizing relative entropy (MRE). We give a generalization of the CAR condition that characterizes when Jeffrey conditioning leads to appropriate answers, but show that there are no such conditions for MRE. This generalizes and interconnects previous results obtained in the literature on CAR and MRE.

In mixture model-based clustering applications, it is common to fit several models from a family and report clustering results from only the `best' one. In such circumstances, selection of this best model is achieved using a model selection criterion, most often the Bayesian information criterion. Rather than throw away all but the best model, we average multiple models that are in some sense close to the best one, thereby producing a weighted average of clustering results. Two (weighted) averaging approaches are considered: averaging the component membership probabilities and averaging models. In both cases, Occam's window is used to determine closeness to the best model and weights are computed within a Bayesian model averaging paradigm. In some cases, we need to merge components before averaging; we introduce a method for merging mixture components based on the adjusted Rand index. The effectiveness of our model-based clustering averaging approaches is illustrated using a family of Gaussian mixture models on real and simulated data.

In several applications of automatic diagnosis and active learning a central problem is the evaluation of a discrete function by adaptively querying the values of its variables until the values read uniquely determine the value of the function. In general, the process of reading the value of a variable might involve some cost, computational or even a fee to be paid for the experiment required for obtaining the value. This cost should be taken into account when deciding the next variable to read. The goal is to design a strategy for evaluating the function incurring little cost (in the worst case or in expectation according to a prior distribution on the possible variables' assignments). Our algorithm builds a strategy (decision tree) which attains a logarithmic approxima- tion simultaneously for the expected and worst cost spent. This is best possible under the assumption that $P \neq NP.$

Learning Structured Outputs from Partial Labels using Forest Ensemble Truyen Tran, Dinh Phung, Svetha V enkatesh Centre for Pattern Recognition and Data Analytics Deakin University, Australia Abstract Learning structured outputs with general structures is computationally challenging, except for tree-structured models. Thus we propose an efficient boosting-based algorithm AdaBoost.MRF for this task. The idea is based on the realization that a graph is a superimposition of trees. Different from most existing work, our algorithm can handle partial labelling, and thus is particularly attractive in practice where reliable labels are often sparsely observed. In addition, our method works exclusively on trees and thus is guaranteed to converge. We apply the AdaBoost.MRF algorithm to an indoor video surveillance scenario, where activities are modelled at multiple levels. 1 Introduction There has been a growing research interest in developing probabilistic temporal graphical models for recognising human activities from sensory data. In this paper we address an important aspect of the problem in that there are multiple levels of abstraction, that is, an activity is often composed of several sub-activities. A popular approach to deal with such a hierarchical nature is to build a cascaded model: each level is modelled separately, and the output of the lower levels is subsequently used as the input for the upper levels [20]. This approach is sub-optimal because the information at the higher level is often very discriminative to infer about the lower levels, but it is not modelled. Moreover, the layered approach often suffers from the so-called cascading error problem, as the error introduced from the lower level will propagate to higher tasks. A better and more holistic approach is to build a joint representation at all layers. Emerging methods include generative/directed models such as abstract hidden Markov models (AH-MMs) [4], hierarchical HMMs [19], dynamic Bayesian networks [10], and their discriminative/undirected counterparts such as hierarchical conditional random field (HCRF) [17], and dynamic CRF (DCRF) [28].