Anthropic's critics argue it's rapidly accumulating power. The company says that's what responsible AI development looks like. Anthropic has spent the last five years warning the world about how advanced artificial intelligence could enable mass destruction, destabilize society, and cause a litany of other grave harms. But simultaneously, it has become one of the most powerful forces pushing AI capabilities forward. The company is now among the top developers and distributors of cutting-edge AI models and courts customers like the US military.

Apple has dramatically jacked up the price of MacBooks, making the current Prime Day pricing that much more enticing. The company called price increases on its products "inevitable" just a couple of weeks ago. On Thursday afternoon, they became official on Apple's website. Its flashy new MacBook Neo is up $100, now at $699. Meanwhile, the MacBook Air gets a $200 price hike, now starting at $1,299.

Training-free source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies arises in scientific string domains such as SMILES, protein, and genomic sequences, where candidate corpora share a tokenizer but differ in prediction targets. This creates an activation-dark regime: representation-similarity metrics can be uninformative without assumptions about label-conditioned error geometry, while classical update-geometry metrics are computationally prohibitive at vocabulary scale. We show that, in a shared-output head setting, representation metrics (e.g., CKA) are non-identifiable for transfer; models can share identical representations yet have orthogonal head updates. The key identity is that head Fisher alignment is exactly a cosine between kernel mean embeddings in the joint activation-error space, exposing activation, error, and coupling factors rather than requiring a materialized Fisher matrix. FisherSketch estimates this cosine directly in a single streaming pass, making K=128,256 head Fisher alignment practical with a 16 KB task signature (m=4096) and a 192 KB per-task streaming state, small enough to store next to a model hash, but encoding transfer-relevant update structure. Beyond source selection, the same signatures and marginals provide a diagnostic instrument for studying whether LLM task similarity is driven by activations, errors, or their coupling; shared-parameter and internal-layer validations, together with Llama-3.1-8B verbalizer-shift experiments, show that FisherSketch remains informative when activation similarity cannot distinguish tasks.

This paper compares different methods for forecasting the term structure of U.S. and European zero-coupon government bonds using both traditional econometric and Machine Learning (ML) approaches. We compare classical models (e.g., Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) with different Neural Network (NN) architectures, including those inspired by the classical models, on the U.S. Treasury market and bonds issued by the European Central Bank (ECB). To enhance predictive performance, macroeconomic variables are incorporated. The findings for both markets are separately analyzed and compared. To this end, we propose a robust model evaluation framework combining statistical accuracy metrics - such as RMSE, MAE, and directional accuracy - with the economic relevance of a quantitative bond trading strategy. Results show that NNs consistently outperform traditional models in both forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance. For the U.S., the most effective approach is a direct-forecasting NN that incorporates DNS factors to reduce the dimensionality of zero-rate data and an Autoencoder (AE) to extract macroeconomic features, while for Europe, the optimal model is a factor-based NN using PCA-derived zero-rate factors without the integration of macroeconomic variables. Overall, the paper demonstrates how combining traditional modeling approaches with modern ML techniques and evaluation can improve yield curve forecasts and support applications in fixed-income portfolio construction.

Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion. This Bayesian filtering distribution is the natural object for uncertainty quantification, but it is rarely available as a supervised learning target. However, one can often use the forecast model to generate synthetic system trajectories, along with synthetic observations. We introduce the proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF), an ensemble data assimilation method based on training an analysis map to approximate the filtering distribution using only synthetic state--observation trajectories. The analysis step is represented as a permutation-invariant, transformer-based map that takes as input a forecast ensemble and observations, producing an analysis ensemble. Training is based on strictly proper scoring rules -- with the energy score used in our implementation -- so that probabilistic accuracy is rewarded over the whole probability distribution. We prove that, under a realizability assumption, the population objective is minimized by the true Bayesian filtering distribution. We also derive the finite-ensemble empirical objective used in training and relate its single state--observation trajectory form to the population objective, using a mean-field consistency argument. Numerical experiments show that the learned filter accurately approximates challenging filtering distributions, including nonlinear, non-Gaussian, and multi-modal posteriors, and achieves stronger performance in data assimilation tasks than classical methods or learning-based methods with mean-squared-error objectives. For close-to-Gaussian problems, learning a correction to the EnKF is the best approach, while for highly non-Gaussian problems an end-to-end approach that discards this inductive bias is superior.

Differentially private (DP) training of neural networks is often hindered by the large amount of noise required by gradient-based methods such as DP-SGD, which repeatedly inject high-dimensional noise in parameter space throughout training. In this paper, we propose a new framework for DP learning that avoids iterative optimization in parameter space. Instead of updating the target model using privatized gradients, we employ a hypernetwork trained on public datasets to map a private dataset to the parameters of the target model. Specifically, each example is embedded into a low-dimensional representation, the embeddings are aggregated and perturbed to obtain a DP dataset embedding, and the hypernetwork generates the target model parameters from this noisy embedding. Because privacy noise is injected only once into a low-dimensional dataset representation, our approach can significantly reduce the adverse effect of noise. We theoretically show in a synthetic setting that, under a fixed privacy budget, models produced by our approach achieve higher utility than those trained with DP-SGD. Moreover, we apply our approach to LoRA fine-tuning of diffusion models and show that it achieves lower FID than LoRA models trained with DP-SGD and other public-data-guided methods.

Modern machine learning systems have outgrown their origins as isolated predictive constructs, evolving into complex socio-technical architectures that actively mediate human opportunity. As algorithms increasingly determine access to economic and social opportunities, it has become widely recognized that these systems are deeply embedded with the structural inequalities and prejudices of their environments. The field of algorithmic fairness emerged in response to the growing recognition that models optimized for predictive accuracy can systematically disadvantage marginalized groups. Early mitigation strategies, however, rested on fragile simplifications that limited their effectiveness in complex sociotechnical environments. This thesis identifies and addresses two fundamental limitations of contemporary fairness paradigms: the reliance on deterministic point estimates for auditing and the treatment of individuals as isolated entities devoid of structural context. First, the diagnosis of algorithmic unfairness has traditionally depended on scalar metrics that fail to capture the nuances of real-world deployment. This deterministic approach ignores the high statistical variance inherent in small, intersectional groups, often leading to false alarms or missed detections of bias. Furthermore, standard auditing struggles with the opacity of black-box models, frequently conflating unjustifiable bias with the influence of legitimate features.

Uncertainty estimates in machine learning are typically evaluated using generic metrics such as the negative log-likelihood and expected calibration error, yet good performance on such metrics does not necessarily imply high utility in downstream decisions. We introduce decision-alignment, a criterion that reveals which evaluation metrics meaningfully align with downstream utilities. Applying this framework, we show that many widely used uncertainty metrics are either misaligned with common decision problems or encode pathological prior beliefs about the downstream task. We then propose prior-weighted utility metrics, a special class of proper scoring rules that provides decision-aligned uncertainty evaluation. Across benchmark experiments and real-world case studies, our metrics consistently align with realized decision utility, while conventional metrics do not. Our results surface flaws in the current UQ evaluation protocol and offer a principled extension of existing metrics toward decision-relevant UQ evaluation.

Smoke rises from Crimea Bridge on Monday. The Ukrainian army is pounding supply routes and striking energy facilities across Crimea. Warsaw - For Yulia, a 23-year-old resident of Crimea, nights have become sleepless due to increased Ukrainian drone attacks on the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. Kyiv's army is pounding supply routes and striking energy facilities across the Black Sea territory -- a campaign it sees as fair retribution for Moscow's daily barrages of Ukrainian cities, and one that it hopes will turn the tide of the four-year war in its favor. On Thursday, the Moscow-installed governor of Crimea announced power cuts across the peninsula, which despite the war had been a popular holiday destination for Russians. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.

Amazon-owned MGM Studios' decision to drop the OpenAI movie is just part of AI and film industries becoming increasingly intertwined. On, we take a look at where this is all headed. This week on Uncanny Valley, our hosts discuss Amazon's controversial decision to drop Luca Guadagnino's film about OpenAI's Sam Altman--which reportedly did not paint him in a favorable light. Alongside Google DeepMind's $75 million brand new partnership with indie film studio A24, how much of a dent is AI actually having in the films we see? They also dive into the recent upheaval of workers--from electricians to software engineers--against data centers. Plus: Meta's program to track employees' data gets paused after a massive leak, and Anthropic is now getting along with the government thanks to CEO Dario Amodei no longer being in the room. Write to us at [email protected] . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . Before we start, two quick things. If you've been enjoying listening to the show, we would appreciate it if you took a second to rate it in your podcast app of choice. It really helps us reach more people. And second, if you have any questions related to tech, privacy, or politics that you would like me, Zoë, and Leah to take on, now is the time to submit them to [email protected] . It doesn't matter how big or how small, we want to hear from you and get you answers. We're discussing Amazon's MGM Studios' sudden decision to drop the OpenAI biographical movie just as they were wrapping up production.