Text watermarking plays a crucial role in ensuring the traceability and accountability of large language model (LLM) outputs and mitigating misuse. While promising, most existing methods assume perfect pseudorandomness. In practice, repetition in generated text induces collisions that create structured dependence, compromising Type I error control and invalidating standard analyses. We introduce a statistical framework that captures this structure through a hierarchical two-layer partition. At its core is the concept of minimal units -- the smallest groups treatable as independent across units while permitting dependence within. Using minimal units, we define a non-asymptotic efficiency measure and cast watermark detection as a minimax hypothesis testing problem. Applied to Gumbel-max and inverse-transform watermarks, our framework produces closed-form optimal rules. It explains why discarding repeated statistics often improves performance and shows that within-unit dependence must be addressed unless degenerate. Both theory and experiments confirm improved detection power with rigorous Type I error control. These results provide the first principled foundation for watermark detection under imperfect pseudorandomness, offering both theoretical insight and practical guidance for reliable tracing of model outputs.

Understanding the predictions made by deep learning models remains a central challenge, especially in high-stakes applications. A promising approach is to equip models with the ability to answer counterfactual questions -- hypothetical ``what if?'' scenarios that go beyond the observed data and provide insight into a model reasoning. In this work, we introduce the notion of causal interpretability, which formalizes when counterfactual queries can be evaluated from a specific class of models and observational data. We analyze two common model classes -- blackbox and concept-based predictors -- and show that neither is causally interpretable in general. To address this gap, we develop a framework for building models that are causally interpretable by design. Specifically, we derive a complete graphical criterion that determines whether a given model architecture supports a given counterfactual query. This leads to a fundamental tradeoff between causal interpretability and predictive accuracy, which we characterize by identifying the unique maximal set of features that yields an interpretable model with maximal predictive expressiveness. Experiments corroborate the theoretical findings.

Reinforcement learning (RL) promises to solve long-horizon tasks even when training data contains only short fragments of the behaviors. This experience stitching capability is often viewed as the purview of temporal difference (TD) methods. However, outside of small tabular settings, trajectories never intersect, calling into question this conventional wisdom. Moreover, the common belief is that Monte Carlo (MC) methods should not be able to recombine experience, yet it remains unclear whether function approximation could result in a form of implicit stitching. The goal of this paper is to empirically study whether the conventional wisdom about stitching actually holds in settings where function approximation is used. We empirically demonstrate that Monte Carlo (MC) methods can also achieve experience stitching. While TD methods do achieve slightly stronger capabilities than MC methods (in line with conventional wisdom), that gap is significantly smaller than the gap between small and large neural networks (even on quite simple tasks). We find that increasing critic capacity effectively reduces the generalization gap for both the MC and TD methods. These results suggest that the traditional TD inductive bias for stitching may be less necessary in the era of large models for RL and, in some cases, may offer diminishing returns. Additionally, our results suggest that stitching, a form of generalization unique to the RL setting, might be achieved not through specialized algorithms (temporal difference learning) but rather through the same recipe that has provided generalization in other machine learning settings (via scale). Project website: https://michalbortkiewicz.github.io/golden-standard/

Novelty detection in large scientific datasets faces two key challenges: the noisy and high-dimensional nature of experimental data, and the necessity of making statistically robust statements about any observed outliers. While there is a wealth of literature on anomaly detection via dimensionality reduction, most methods do not produce outputs compatible with quantifiable claims of scientific discovery. In this work we directly address these challenges, presenting the first step towards a unified pipeline for novelty detection adapted for the rigorous statistical demands of science. We introduce AutoSciDACT (Automated Scientific Discovery with Anomalous Contrastive Testing), a general-purpose pipeline for detecting novelty in scientific data. AutoSciDACT begins by creating expressive low-dimensional data representations using a contrastive pre-training, leveraging the abundance of high-quality simulated data in many scientific domains alongside expertise that can guide principled data augmentation strategies. These compact embeddings then enable an extremely sensitive machine learning-based two-sample test using the New Physics Learning Machine (NPLM) framework, which identifies and statistically quantifies deviations in observed data relative to a reference distribution (null hypothesis). We perform experiments across a range of astronomical, physical, biological, image, and synthetic datasets, demonstrating strong sensitivity to small injections of anomalous data across all domains.

Causal inference identifies cause-and-effect relationships between variables. While traditional approaches rely on data to reveal causal links, a recently developed method, assimilative causal inference (ACI), integrates observations with dynamical models. It utilizes Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes back from observed effects by quantifying the reduction in uncertainty. ACI advances the detection of instantaneous causal relationships and the intermittent reversal of causal roles over time. Beyond identifying causal connections, an equally important challenge is determining the associated causal influence range (CIR), indicating when causal influences emerged and for how long they persist. In this paper, ACI is employed to develop mathematically rigorous formulations of both forward and backward CIRs at each time. The forward CIR quantifies the temporal impact of a cause, while the backward CIR traces the onset of triggers for an observed effect, thus characterizing causal predictability and attribution of outcomes at each transient phase, respectively. Objective and robust metrics for both CIRs are introduced, eliminating the need for empirical thresholds. Computationally efficient approximation algorithms to compute CIRs are developed, which facilitate the use of closed-form expressions for a broad class of nonlinear dynamical systems. Numerical simulations demonstrate how this forward and backward CIR framework provides new possibilities for probing complex dynamical systems. It advances the study of bifurcation-driven and noise-induced tipping points in Earth systems, investigates the impact from resolving the interfering variables when determining the influence ranges, and elucidates atmospheric blocking mechanisms in the equatorial region. These results have direct implications for science, policy, and decision-making.

We study online learning in finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the challenging aggregate bandit feedback model, where the learner observes only the cumulative loss incurred in each episode, rather than individual losses at each state-action pair. While prior work in this setting has focused exclusively on worst-case analysis, we initiate the study of best-of-both-worlds (BOBW) algorithms that achieve low regret in both stochastic and adversarial environments. We propose the first BOBW algorithms for episodic tabular MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback. In the case of known transitions, our algorithms achieve $O(\log T)$ regret in stochastic settings and ${O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret in adversarial ones. Importantly, we also establish matching lower bounds, showing the optimality of our algorithms in this setting. We further extend our approach to unknown-transition settings by incorporating confidence-based techniques. Our results rely on a combination of FTRL over occupancy measures, self-bounding techniques, and new loss estimators inspired by recent advances in online shortest path problems. Along the way, we also provide the first individual-gap-dependent lower bounds and demonstrate near-optimal BOBW algorithms for shortest path problems with bandit feedback.

Incomplete multi-view data, where certain views are entirely missing for some samples, poses significant challenges for traditional multi-view clustering methods. Existing deep incomplete multi-view clustering approaches often rely on static fusion strategies or two-stage pipelines, leading to suboptimal fusion results and error propagation issues. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel incomplete multi-view clustering framework based on Hierarchical Semantic Alignment and Cooperative Completion (HSACC). HSACC achieves robust cross-view fusion through a dual-level semantic space design. In the low-level semantic space, consistency alignment is ensured by maximizing mutual information across views. In the high-level semantic space, adaptive view weights are dynamically assigned based on the distributional affinity between individual views and an initial fused representation, followed by weighted fusion to generate a unified global representation. Additionally, HSACC implicitly recovers missing views by projecting aligned latent representations into high-dimensional semantic spaces and jointly optimizes reconstruction and clustering objectives, enabling cooperative learning of completion and clustering. Experimental results demonstrate that HSACC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on five benchmark datasets. Ablation studies validate the effectiveness of the hierarchical alignment and dynamic weighting mechanisms, while parameter analysis confirms the model's robustness to hyperparameter variations.

OpenAI has released new estimates of the number of ChatGPT users who exhibit possible signs of mental health emergencies, including mania, psychosis or suicidal thoughts. The company said that around 0.07% of ChatGPT users active in a given week exhibited such signs, adding that its artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot recognizes and responds to these sensitive conversations. While OpenAI maintains these cases are extremely rare, critics said even a small percentage may amount to hundreds of thousands of people, as ChatGPT recently reached 800 million weekly active users, per boss Sam Altman. As scrutiny mounts, the company said it built a network of experts around the world to advise it. Those experts include more than 170 psychiatrists, psychologists, and primary care physicians who have practiced in 60 countries, the company said. They have devised a series of responses in ChatGPT to encourage users to seek help in the real world, according to OpenAI.

Can Israel annex the West Bank if the US says no? Will the US plan for Gaza fail? 'We survived the war, we may not survive the ceasefire' Who are the 95 healthcare workers held by Israel? Hamas has handed over the remains of another dead captive to Israel, hours after an Israeli drone attack in southern Gaza killed two Palestinians amid a fragile ceasefire. The Israeli military said on Monday that the Red Cross had taken custody of the coffin and was in the process of transporting it to the army's troops in Gaza. The remains of 16 had been handed over as of Monday.

Can Israel annex the West Bank if the US says no? Will the US plan for Gaza fail? 'We survived the war, we may not survive the ceasefire' Who are the 95 healthcare workers held by Israel? The United Nations and France have condemned an Israeli attack that hit UN peacekeeping troops in southern Lebanon. UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday that the previous day's attack on UNIFIL troops, which he said involved an Israeli drone dropping a grenade in the vicinity of a patrol, as well as a tank opening fire on peacekeepers near the border town of Kfar Kila, was "very, very dangerous". Israel has violated the truce on a near-daily basis.