Trump-Xi meeting: Who has the upper hand? Could Trump go for a third term? Is the US eyeing its next Latin American target? Why is Trump tearing down parts of the White House? Russia's Ministry of Defence said its forces took control of the villages of Krasnohirske in Ukraine's Zaporizhia region and Sadove in the Kharkiv region, Russian state news agencies reported.

We derive a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler based on following ray paths in a medium where the refractive index $n(x)$ is a function of the desired likelihood $\mathcal{L}(x)$. The sampling method propagates rays at constant speed through parameter space, leading to orders of magnitude higher resilience to heating for stochastic gradients as compared to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), as well as the ability to cross any likelihood barrier, including holes in parameter space. Using the ray tracing method, we sample the posterior distributions of neural network outputs for a variety of different architectures, up to the 1.5 billion-parameter GPT-2 (Generative Pre-trained Transformer 2) architecture, all on a single consumer-level GPU. We also show that prior samplers including traditional HMC, microcanonical HMC, Metropolis, Gibbs, and even Monte Carlo integration are special cases within a generalized ray tracing framework, which can sample according to an arbitrary weighting function. Public code and documentation for C, JAX, and PyTorch are available at https://bitbucket.org/pbehroozi/ray-tracing-sampler/src

Observational studies developing causal machine learning (ML) models for the prediction of individualized treatment effects (ITEs) seldom conduct empirical evaluations to assess the conditional exchangeability assumption. We aimed to evaluate the performance of these models under conditional exchangeability violations and the utility of negative control outcomes (NCOs) as a diagnostic. We conducted a simulation study to examine confounding bias in ITE estimates generated by causal forest and X-learner models under varying conditions, including the presence or absence of true heterogeneity. We simulated data to reflect real-world scenarios with differing levels of confounding, sample size, and NCO confounding structures. We then estimated and compared subgroup-level treatment effects on the primary outcome and NCOs across settings with and without unmeasured confounding. When conditional exchangeability was violated, causal forest and X-learner models failed to recover true treatment effect heterogeneity and, in some cases, falsely indicated heterogeneity when there was none. NCOs successfully identified subgroups affected by unmeasured confounding. Even when NCOs did not perfectly satisfy its ideal assumptions, it remained informative, flagging potential bias in subgroup level estimates, though not always pinpointing the subgroup with the largest confounding. Violations of conditional exchangeability substantially limit the validity of ITE estimates from causal ML models in routinely collected observational data. NCOs serve a useful empirical diagnostic tool for detecting subgroup-specific unmeasured confounding and should be incorporated into causal ML workflows to support the credibility of individualized inference.

Learning to defer uncertain predictions to costly experts offers a powerful strategy for improving the accuracy and efficiency of machine learning systems. However, standard training procedures for deferral algorithms typically require querying all experts for every training instance, an approach that becomes prohibitively expensive when expert queries incur significant computational or resource costs. This undermines the core goal of deferral: to limit unnecessary expert usage. To overcome this challenge, we introduce the budgeted deferral framework, which aims to train effective deferral algorithms while minimizing expert query costs during training. We propose new algorithms for both two-stage and single-stage multiple-expert deferral settings that selectively query only a subset of experts per training example. While inspired by active learning, our setting is fundamentally different: labels are already known, and the core challenge is to decide which experts to query in order to balance cost and predictive performance. We establish theoretical guarantees for both of our algorithms, including generalization bounds and label complexity analyses. Empirical results across several domains show that our algorithms substantially reduce training costs without sacrificing prediction accuracy, demonstrating the practical value of our budget-aware deferral algorithms.

Kernel methods represent a fundamental class of machine learning techniques and have gained widespread adoption across diverse domains [32], including computer vision [22, 13], natural language processing (NLP) [36, 4], and bioinformatics [29], among others. The core idea underlying kernel methods is to employ a kernel function that implicitly maps the input data into a high-dimensional feature space, thereby enabling the use of linear models to solve nonlinear learning tasks in the original space. Consequently, the selection of an appropriate kernel function is critical to the performance of the method. Traditional kernel methods predominantly rely on positive definite (PD) kernels, such as the polynomial kernel and the Gaussian kernel. According to Mercer's Theorem, a PD kernel ensures that the resulting kernel matrix is positive semidefinite (PSD), thereby facilitating the analysis of the learning problem within the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) [9]. The PSD property guarantees that the corresponding optimization problem is convex and thus tractable. These authors contributed equally to this work.

Single-cell technologies generate high-dimensional point clouds of cells, enabling detailed characterization of complex patient states and treatment responses. Yet each patient is represented by an irregular point cloud rather than a simple vector, making it difficult to directly quantify and compare biological differences between individuals. Nonlinear methods such as kernels and neural networks achieve predictive accuracy but act as black boxes, offering little biological interpretability. To address these limitations, we adapt the Linear Optimal Transport (LOT) framework to this setting, embedding irregular point clouds into a fixed-dimensional Euclidean space while preserving distributional structure. This embedding provides a principled linear representation that preserves optimal transport geometry while enabling downstream analysis. It also forms a registration between any two patients, enabling direct comparison of their cellular distributions. Within this space, LOT enables: (i) \textbf{accurate and interpretable classification} of COVID-19 patient states, where classifier weights map back to specific markers and spatial regions driving predictions; and (ii) \textbf{synthetic data generation} for patient-derived organoids, exploiting the linearity of the LOT embedding. LOT barycenters yield averaged cellular profiles representing combined conditions or samples, supporting drug interaction testing. Together, these results establish LOT as a unified framework that bridges predictive performance, interpretability, and generative modeling. By transforming heterogeneous point clouds into structured embeddings directly traceable to the original data, LOT opens new opportunities for understanding immune variation and treatment effects in high-dimensional biological systems.

In contrast to the independent sampling assumed in classical matrix completion literature, the observed entries, which arise from past matching data, are constrained by matching capacity. This matching-induced dependence poses new challenges for both estimation and inference in the matrix completion framework. We propose a non-convex algorithm based on Grassmannian gradient descent and establish near-optimal entrywise convergence rates for three canonical mechanisms, i.e., one-to-one matching, one-to-many matching with one-sided random arrival, and two-sided random arrival. To facilitate valid uncertainty quantification and hypothesis testing on matching decisions, we further develop a general debiasing and projection framework for arbitrary linear forms of the reward matrix, deriving asymptotic normality with finite-sample guarantees under matching-induced dependent sampling. Our empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach provides accurate estimation, valid confidence intervals, and efficient evaluation of matching policies.

Heavy-tailed distributions, prevalent in a lot of real-world applications such as finance, telecommunications, queuing theory, and natural language processing, are challenging to model accurately owing to their slow tail decay. Bernstein phase-type (BPH) distributions, through their analytical tractability and good approximations in the non-tail region, can present a good solution, but they suffer from an inability to reproduce these heavy-tailed behaviors exactly, thus leading to inadequate performance in important tail areas. On the contrary, while highly adaptable to heavy-tailed distributions, hyperexponential (HE) models struggle in the body part of the distribution. Additionally, they are highly sensitive to initial parameter selection, significantly affecting their precision. To solve these issues, we propose a novel hybrid model of BPH and HE distributions, borrowing the most desirable features from each for enhanced approximation quality. Specifically, we leverage an optimization to set initial parameters for the HE component, significantly enhancing its robustness and reducing the possibility that the associated procedure results in an invalid HE model. Experimental validation demonstrates that the novel hybrid approach is more performant than individual application of BPH or HE models. More precisely, it can capture both the body and the tail of heavy-tailed distributions, with a considerable enhancement in matching parameters such as mean and coefficient of variation. Additional validation through experiments utilizing queuing theory proves the practical usefulness, accuracy, and precision of our hybrid approach.

State estimation for nonlinear dynamical systems is a critical challenge in control and engineering applications, particularly when only partial and noisy measurements are available. This paper introduces a novel Adaptive Physics-Informed Neural Network-based Observer (PINN-Obs) for accurate state estimation in nonlinear systems. Unlike traditional model-based observers, which require explicit system transformations or linearization, the proposed framework directly integrates system dynamics and sensor data into a physics-informed learning process. The observer adaptively learns an optimal gain matrix, ensuring convergence of the estimated states to the true system states. A rigorous theoretical analysis establishes formal convergence guarantees, demonstrating that the proposed approach achieves uniform error minimization under mild observability conditions. The effectiveness of PINN-Obs is validated through extensive numerical simulations on diverse nonlinear systems, including an induction motor model, a satellite motion system, and benchmark academic examples. Comparative experimental studies against existing observer designs highlight its superior accuracy, robustness, and adaptability.

Towards a Method for Synthetic Generation of Persons with Aphasia Transcripts Jason M. Pittman1, Anton Phillips Jr.2, Yesenia Medina-Santos2, Brielle C. Stark2 1University of Maryland Global Campus 2Indiana University Bloomington, Department of Speech, Language and Hearing Sciences ABSTRACT In aphasia research, Speech-Language Pathologists (SLPs) devote extensive time to manually coding speech samples using Correct Information Units (CIUs), a measure of how informative an individual sample of speech is. Developing automated systems to recognize aphasic language is limited by data scarcity. For example, only about 600 transcripts are available in AphasiaBank yet billions of tokens are used to train large language models (LLMs). In the broader field of machine learning (ML), researchers increasingly turn to synthetic data when such are sparse. Therefore, this study constructs and validates two methods to generate synthetic transcripts of the AphasiaBank Cat Rescue picture description task. One method leverages a procedural programming approach while the second uses Mistral 7b Instruct and Llama 3.1 8b Instruct LLMs. The methods generate transcripts across four severity levels (Mild, Moderate, Severe, Very Severe) through word dropping, filler insertion, and paraphasia substitution. Overall, we found, compared to human-elicited transcripts, Mistral 7b Instruct best captures key aspects of linguistic degradation observed in aphasia, showing realistic directional changes in NDW, word count, and word length amongst the synthetic generation methods. Based on the results, future work should plan to create a larger dataset, fine-tune models for better aphasic representation, and have SLPs assess the realism and usefulness of the synthetic transcripts. Keywords: aphasia, synthetic data, natural language processing, machine learning Introduction Per Nicholas and Brookshire (1993), coding Correct Information Units (CIUs) involves transcribing a connected speech sample verbatim, counting all intelligible words, and then identifying each word that is intelligible, accurate, relevant, and informative about the topic as a CIU--excluding fillers, repetitions, and tangential remarks. From these counts, clinicians calculate the percentage of CIUs and CIUs per minute to quantify communicative informativeness and efficiency.