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The Price equation reveals a universal force-metric-bias law of algorithmic learning and natural selection
Diverse learning algorithms, optimization methods, and natural selection share a common mathematical structure, despite their apparent differences. Here I show that a simple notational partitioning of change by the Price equation reveals a universal force-metric-bias (FMB) law: $ฮ\mathbfฮธ = \mathbf{M}\,\mathbf{f} + \mathbf{b} + \mathbfฮพ$. The force $\mathbf{f}$ drives improvement in parameters, $ฮ\mathbfฮธ$, in proportion to the slope of performance with respect to the parameters. The metric $\mathbf{M}$ rescales movement by inverse curvature. The bias $\mathbf{b}$ adds momentum or changes in the frame of reference. The noise $\mathbfฮพ$ enables exploration. This framework unifies natural selection, Bayesian updating, Newton's method, stochastic gradient descent, stochastic Langevin dynamics, Adam optimization, and most other algorithms as special cases of the same underlying process. The Price equation also reveals why Fisher information, Kullback-Leibler divergence, and d'Alembert's principle arise naturally in learning dynamics. By exposing this common structure, the FMB law provides a principled foundation for understanding, comparing, and designing learning algorithms across disciplines.
ARPaCCino: An Agentic-RAG for Policy as Code Compliance
Romeo, Francesco, Arena, Luigi, Blefari, Francesco, Pironti, Francesco Aurelio, Lupinacci, Matteo, Furfaro, Angelo
Policy as Code (PaC) is a paradigm that encodes security and compliance policies into machine-readable formats, enabling automated enforcement in Infrastructure as Code (IaC) environments. However, its adoption is hindered by the complexity of policy languages and the risk of misconfigurations. In this work, we present ARPaCCino, an agentic system that combines Large Language Models (LLMs), Retrieval-Augmented-Generation (RAG), and tool-based validation to automate the generation and verification of PaC rules. Given natural language descriptions of the desired policies, ARPaCCino generates formal Rego rules, assesses IaC compliance, and iteratively refines the IaC configurations to ensure conformance. Thanks to its modular agentic architecture and integration with external tools and knowledge bases, ARPaCCino supports policy validation across a wide range of technologies, including niche or emerging IaC frameworks. Experimental evaluation involving a Terraform-based case study demonstrates ARPaCCino's effectiveness in generating syntactically and semantically correct policies, identifying non-compliant infrastructures, and applying corrective modifications, even when using smaller, open-weight LLMs. Our results highlight the potential of agentic RAG architectures to enhance the automation, reliability, and accessibility of PaC workflows.
Context-Aware Regularization with Markovian Integration for Attention-Based Nucleotide Analysis
Refahi, Mohammadsaleh, Abavisani, Mahdi, Sokhansanj, Bahrad A., Brown, James R., Rosen, Gail
Transformers have revolutionized nucleotide sequence analysis, yet capturing long-range dependencies remains challenging. Recent studies show that autoregressive transformers often exhibit Markovian behavior by relying on fixed-length context windows for next-token prediction. However, standard self-attention mechanisms are computationally inefficient for long sequences due to their quadratic complexity and do not explicitly enforce global transition consistency. We introduce CARMANIA (Context-Aware Regularization with Markovian Integration for Attention-Based Nucleotide Analysis), a self-supervised pretraining framework that augments next-token (NT) prediction with a transition-matrix (TM) loss. The TM loss aligns predicted token transitions with empirically derived n-gram statistics from each input sequence, encouraging the model to capture higher-order dependencies beyond local context. This integration enables CARMANIA to learn organism-specific sequence structures that reflect both evolutionary constraints and functional organization. We evaluate CARMANIA across diverse genomic tasks, including regulatory element prediction, functional gene classification, taxonomic inference, antimicrobial resistance detection, and biosynthetic gene cluster classification. CARMANIA outperforms the previous best long-context model by at least 7 percent, matches state-of-the-art on shorter sequences (exceeding prior results on 20 out of 40 tasks while running approximately 2.5 times faster), and shows particularly strong improvements on enhancer and housekeeping gene classification tasks, including up to a 34 percent absolute gain in Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for enhancer prediction. The TM loss boosts accuracy in 33 of 40 tasks, especially where local motifs or regulatory patterns drive prediction.
AI Research Agents for Machine Learning: Search, Exploration, and Generalization in MLE-bench
Toledo, Edan, Hambardzumyan, Karen, Josifoski, Martin, Hazra, Rishi, Baldwin, Nicolas, Audran-Reiss, Alexis, Kuchnik, Michael, Magka, Despoina, Jiang, Minqi, Lupidi, Alisia Maria, Lupu, Andrei, Raileanu, Roberta, Niu, Kelvin, Shavrina, Tatiana, Gagnon-Audet, Jean-Christophe, Shvartsman, Michael, Sodhani, Shagun, Miller, Alexander H., Charnalia, Abhishek, Dunfield, Derek, Wu, Carole-Jean, Stenetorp, Pontus, Cancedda, Nicola, Foerster, Jakob Nicolaus, Bachrach, Yoram
AI research agents are demonstrating great potential to accelerate scientific progress by automating the design, implementation, and training of machine learning models. We focus on methods for improving agents' performance on MLE-bench, a challenging benchmark where agents compete in Kaggle competitions to solve real-world machine learning problems. We formalize AI research agents as search policies that navigate a space of candidate solutions, iteratively modifying them using operators. By designing and systematically varying different operator sets and search policies (Greedy, MCTS, Evolutionary), we show that their interplay is critical for achieving high performance. Our best pairing of search strategy and operator set achieves a state-of-the-art result on MLE-bench lite, increasing the success rate of achieving a Kaggle medal from 39.6% to 47.7%. Our investigation underscores the importance of jointly considering the search strategy, operator design, and evaluation methodology in advancing automated machine learning.
Aggregation of Published Non-Uniform Axial Power Data for Phase II of the OECD/NEA AI/ML Critical Heat Flux Benchmark
Bourisaw, Reece, McCants, Reid, Corre, Jean-Marie Le, Iskhakova, Anna, Iskhakov, Arsen S.
Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the onset of boiling crisis in light-water reactors, defining safe thermal-hydraulic operating limits. To support Phase II of the OECD/NEA AI/ML CHF benchmark, which introduces spatially varying power profiles, this work compiles and digitizes a broad CHF dataset covering both uniform and non-uniform axial heating conditions. Heating profiles were extracted from technical reports, interpolated onto a consistent axial mesh, validated via energy-balance checks, and encoded in machine-readable formats for benchmark compatibility. Classical CHF correlations exhibit substantial errors under uniform heating and degrade markedly when applied to non-uniform profiles, while modern tabular methods offer improved but still imperfect predictions. A neural network trained solely on uniform data performs well in that regime but fails to generalize to spatially varying scenarios, underscoring the need for models that explicitly incorporate axial power distributions. By providing these curated datasets and baseline modeling results, this study lays the groundwork for advanced transfer-learning strategies, rigorous uncertainty quantification, and design-optimization efforts in the next phase of the CHF benchmark.
Weakly Supervised Object Segmentation by Background Conditional Divergence
Baker, Hassan, Emigh, Matthew S., Brockmeier, Austin J.
As a computer vision task, automatic object segmentation remains challenging in specialized image domains without massive labeled data, such as synthetic aperture sonar images, remote sensing, biomedical imaging, etc. In any domain, obtaining pixel-wise segmentation masks is expensive. In this work, we propose a method for training a masking network to perform binary object segmentation using weak supervision in the form of image-wise presence or absence of an object of interest, which provides less information but may be obtained more quickly from manual or automatic labeling. A key step in our method is that the segmented objects can be placed into background-only images to create realistic images of the objects with counterfactual backgrounds. To create a contrast between the original and counterfactual background images, we propose to first cluster the background-only images and then, during learning, create counterfactual images that blend objects segmented from their original source backgrounds to backgrounds chosen from a targeted cluster. One term in the training loss is the divergence between these counterfactual images and the real object images with backgrounds of the target cluster. The other term is a supervised loss for background-only images. While an adversarial critic could provide the divergence, we use sample-based divergences. We conduct experiments on side-scan and synthetic aperture sonar in which our approach succeeds compared to previous unsupervised segmentation baselines that were only tested on natural images. Furthermore, to show generality we extend our experiments to natural images, obtaining reasonable performance with our method that avoids pretrained networks, generative networks, and adversarial critics. The code for this work can be found at \href{GitHub}{https://github.com/bakerhassan/WSOS}.
Mirror Eyes: Explainable Human-Robot Interaction at a Glance
Krรผger, Matti, Tanneberg, Daniel, Wang, Chao, Hasler, Stephan, Gienger, Michael
The gaze of a person tends to reflect their interest. This work explores what happens when this statement is taken literally and applied to robots. Here we present a robot system that employs a moving robot head with a screen-based eye model that can direct the robot's gaze to points in physical space and present a reflection-like mirror image of the attended region on top of each eye. We conducted a user study with 33 participants, who were asked to instruct the robot to perform pick-and-place tasks, monitor the robot's task execution, and interrupt it in case of erroneous actions. Despite a deliberate lack of instructions about the role of the eyes and a very brief system exposure, participants felt more aware about the robot's information processing, detected erroneous actions earlier, and rated the user experience higher when eye-based mirroring was enabled compared to non-reflective eyes. These results suggest a beneficial and intuitive utilization of the introduced method in cooperative human-robot interaction.
Beyond the Link: Assessing LLMs' ability to Classify Political Content across Global Media
De La Fuente-Cuesta, Alejandro, Martinez-Serra, Alberto, Visscher, Nienke, Castro, Laia, Cardenal, Ana S.
The use of large language models (LLMs) is becoming common in political science and digital media research. While LLMs have demonstrated ability in labelling tasks, their effectiveness to classify Political Content (PC) from URLs remains underexplored. This article evaluates whether LLMs can accurately distinguish PC from non-PC using both the text and the URLs of news articles across five countries (France, Germany, Spain, the UK, and the US) and their different languages. Using cutting-edge models, we benchmark their performance against human-coded data to assess whether URL-level analysis can approximate full-text analysis. Our findings show that URLs embed relevant information and can serve as a scalable, cost-effective alternative to discern PC. However, we also uncover systematic biases: LLMs seem to overclassify centrist news as political, leading to false positives that may distort further analyses. We conclude by outlining methodological recommendations on the use of LLMs in political science research.
Generalisation Bounds of Zero-Shot Economic Forecasting using Time Series Foundation Models
Jetwiriyanon, Jittarin, Susnjak, Teo, Ranathunga, Surangika
This study investigates zero-shot forecasting capabilities of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for macroeconomic indicators. We apply TSFMs to forecasting economic indicators under univariate conditions, bypassing the need for train bespoke econometric models using and extensive training datasets. Our experiments were conducted on a case study dataset, without additional customisation. We rigorously back-tested three state-of-the-art TSFMs (Chronos, TimeGPT and Moirai) under data-scarce conditions and structural breaks. Our results demonstrate that appropriately engineered TSFMs can internalise rich economic dynamics, accommodate regime shifts, and deliver well-behaved uncertainty estimates out of the box, while matching state-of-the-art multivariate models on this domain. Our findings suggest that, without any fine-tuning, TSFMs can match or exceed classical models during stable economic conditions. However, they are vulnerable to degradation in performances during periods of rapid shocks. The findings offer guidance to practitioners on when zero-shot deployments are viable for macroeconomic monitoring and strategic planning.
TUM Teleoperation: Open Source Software for Remote Driving and Assistance of Automated Vehicles
Kerbl, Tobias, Brecht, David, Gehrke, Nils, Karunainayagam, Nijinshan, Krauss, Niklas, Pfab, Florian, Taupitz, Richard, Trautmannsheimer, Ines, Su, Xiyan, Wolf, Maria-Magdalena, Diermeyer, Frank
Abstract-- T eleoperation is a key enabler for future mobility, supporting Automated V ehicles in rare and complex scenarios beyond the capabilities of their automation. Despite ongoing research, no open source software currently combines Remote Driving, e.g., via steering wheel and pedals, Remote Assistance through high-level interaction with automated driving software modules, and integration with a real-world vehicle for practical testing. T o address this gap, we present a modular, open source teleoperation software stack that can interact with an automated driving software, e.g., Autoware, enabling Remote Assistance and Remote Driving. The software features standardized interfaces for seamless integration with various real-world and simulation platforms, while allowing for flexible design of the human-machine interface. The system is designed for modularity and ease of extension, serving as a foundation for collaborative development on individual software components as well as realistic testing and user studies. T o demonstrate the applicability of our software, we evaluated the latency and performance of different vehicle platforms in simulation and real-world. Teleoperation enables remote support of robots over mobile networks, allowing humans to handle tasks that cannot be fully automated. In the field of intelligent vehicles, tele-operation has gained traction, with companies like Fernride and V ay deploying remote driving solutions for logistics and car sharing, gathering significant funding [1, 2]. Tele-operation also supports Automated V ehicles (A Vs) during disengagements, as seen with Waymo and Zoox, which rely on Remote Operators (ROs) when A Vs cannot resolve a scenario [3, 4].