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Transparent Early ICU Mortality Prediction with Clinical Transformer and Per-Case Modality Attribution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Early identification of intensive care patients at risk of in-hospital mortality enables timely intervention and efficient resource allocation. Despite high predictive performance, existing machine learning approaches lack transparency and robustness, limiting clinical adoption. We present a lightweight, transparent multimodal ensemble that fuses physiological time-series measurements with unstructured clinical notes from the first 48 hours of an ICU stay. A logistic regression model combines predictions from two modality-specific models: a bidirectional LSTM for vitals and a finetuned ClinicalModernBERT transformer for notes. This traceable architecture allows for multilevel interpretability: feature attributions within each modality and direct per-case modality attributions quantifying how vitals and notes influence each decision. On the MIMIC-III benchmark, our late-fusion ensemble improves discrimination over the best single model (AUPRC 0.565 vs. 0.526; AUROC 0.891 vs. 0.876) while maintaining well-calibrated predictions. The system remains robust through a calibrated fallback when a modality is missing. These results demonstrate competitive performance with reliable, auditable risk estimates and transparent, predictable operation, which together are crucial for clinical use.


Attention-Based Feature Online Conformal Prediction for Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online conformal prediction (OCP) wraps around any pre-trained predictor to produce prediction sets with coverage guarantees that hold irrespective of temporal dependencies or distribution shifts. However, standard OCP faces two key limitations: it operates in the output space using simple nonconformity (NC) scores, and it treats all historical observations uniformly when estimating quantiles. This paper introduces attention-based feature OCP (AFOCP), which addresses both limitations through two key innovations. First, AFOCP operates in the feature space of pre-trained neural networks, leveraging learned representations to construct more compact prediction sets by concentrating on task-relevant information while suppressing nuisance variation. Second, AFOCP incorporates an attention mechanism that adaptively weights historical observations based on their relevance to the current test point, effectively handling non-stationarity and distribution shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees showing that AFOCP maintains long-term coverage while provably achieving smaller prediction intervals than standard OCP under mild regularity conditions. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world time series datasets demonstrate that AFOCP consistently reduces the size of prediction intervals by as much as $88\%$ as compared to OCP, while maintaining target coverage levels, validating the benefits of both feature-space calibration and attention-based adaptive weighting.


Mini Amusement Parks (MAPs): A Testbed for Modelling Business Decisions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite rapid progress in artificial intelligence, current systems struggle with the interconnected challenges that define real-world decision making. Practical domains, such as business management, require optimizing an open-ended and multi-faceted objective, actively learning environment dynamics from sparse experience, planning over long horizons in stochastic settings, and reasoning over spatial information. Yet existing human--AI benchmarks isolate subsets of these capabilities, limiting our ability to assess holistic decision-making competence. We introduce Mini Amusement Parks (MAPs), an amusement-park simulator designed to evaluate an agent's ability to model its environment, anticipate long-term consequences under uncertainty, and strategically operate a complex business. We provide human baselines and a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art LLM agents, finding that humans outperform these systems by 6.5x on easy mode and 9.8x on medium mode. Our analysis reveals persistent weaknesses in long-horizon optimization, sample-efficient learning, spatial reasoning, and world modelling. By unifying these challenges within a single environment, MAPs offers a new foundation for benchmarking agents capable of adaptable decision making. Code: https://github.com/Skyfall-Research/MAPs


IMACT-CXR - An Interactive Multi-Agent Conversational Tutoring System for Chest X-Ray Interpretation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

IMACT-CXR is an interactive multi-agent conversational tutor that helps trainees interpret chest X-rays by unifying spatial annotation, gaze analysis, knowledge retrieval, and image-grounded reasoning in a single AutoGen-based workflow. The tutor simultaneously ingests learner bounding boxes, gaze samples, and free-text observations. Specialized agents evaluate localization quality, generate Socratic coaching, retrieve PubMed evidence, suggest similar cases from REFLACX, and trigger NV-Reason-CXR-3B for vision-language reasoning when mastery remains low or the learner explicitly asks. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) maintains skill-specific mastery estimates that drive both knowledge reinforcement and case similarity retrieval. A lung-lobe segmentation module derived from a TensorFlow U-Net enables anatomically aware gaze feedback, and safety prompts prevent premature disclosure of ground-truth labels. We describe the system architecture, implementation highlights, and integration with the REFLACX dataset for real DICOM cases. IMACT-CXR demonstrates responsive tutoring flows with bounded latency, precise control over answer leakage, and extensibility toward live residency deployment. Preliminary evaluation shows improved localization and diagnostic reasoning compared to baselines.


TopoReformer: Mitigating Adversarial Attacks Using Topological Purification in OCR Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarially perturbed images of text can cause sophisticated OCR systems to produce misleading or incorrect transcriptions from seemingly invisible changes to humans. Some of these perturbations even survive physical capture, posing security risks to high-stakes applications such as document processing, license plate recognition, and automated compliance systems. Existing defenses, such as adversarial training, input preprocessing, or post-recognition correction, are often model-specific, computationally expensive, and affect performance on unperturbed inputs while remaining vulnerable to unseen or adaptive attacks. To address these challenges, T opoReformer is introduced, a model-agnostic reformation pipeline that mitigates adversarial perturbations while preserving the structural integrity of text images. Topology studies properties of shapes and spaces that remain unchanged under continuous deformations, focusing on global structures such as connectivity, holes, and loops rather than exact distance. Leveraging these topological features, T opoReformer employs a topological autoencoder to enforce manifold-level consistency in latent space and improve robustness without explicit gradient regularization. The proposed method is benchmarked on EMNIST, MNIST, against standard adversarial attacks (FGSM, PGD, Carlini-Wagner), adaptive attacks (EOT, BDP A), and an OCR-specific watermark attack (FA W A).


SURFing to the Fundamental Limit of Jet Tagging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Jet tagging is a central task in collider physics. Over the past decade, machine learning has driven major advances in jet tagging, with increasingly sophisticated architectures achieving very high classification performance on simulated datasets [1-11]. This success naturally raises a key question: have current jet taggers already reached the fundamental limit of jet tagging, or does a gap remain between practical performance and the true statistical optimum? The Neyman-Pearson (NP) limit, defined by the likelihood ratio, is the best possible discriminant between two different underlying physics processes - such as top and QCD jets - that any classifier could achieve if it had access to the exact data likelihoods [12]. In practice, however, this limit cannot be evaluated directly because the true likelihood of the data-generating process is unknown. It therefore remains unclear how close existing classifiers are to this ultimate bound. Recently, Ref. [13] proposed using autoregressive GPT-style generative models to probe this limit for top vs. QCD jets from the JetClass dataset [14]. These models operate on discretized, tokenized representations of jet constituents and yield explicit log-likelihoods, enabling the computation of likelihood ratios between jet classes.


Balancing Natural Language Processing Accuracy and Normalisation in Extracting Medical Insights

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extracting structured medical insights from unstructured clinical text using Natural Language Processing (NLP) remains an open challenge in healthcare, particularly in non-English contexts where resources are scarce. This study presents a comparative analysis of NLP low-compute rule-based methods and Large Language Models (LLMs) for information extraction from electronic health records (EHR) obtained from the Voivodeship Rehabilitation Hospital for Children in Ameryka, Poland. We evaluate both approaches by extracting patient demographics, clinical findings, and prescribed medications while examining the effects of lack of text normalisation and translation-induced information loss. Results demonstrate that rule-based methods provide higher accuracy in information retrieval tasks, particularly for age and sex extraction. However, LLMs offer greater adaptability and scalability, excelling in drug name recognition. The effectiveness of the LLMs was compared with texts originally in Polish and those translated into English, assessing the impact of translation. These findings highlight the trade-offs between accuracy, normalisation, and computational cost when deploying NLP in healthcare settings. We argue for hybrid approaches that combine the precision of rule-based systems with the adaptability of LLMs, offering a practical path toward more reliable and resource-efficient clinical NLP in real-world hospitals.


TB or Not TB: Coverage-Driven Direct Preference Optimization for Verilog Stimulus Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is growing interest in applying them to hardware design and verification. Among these stages, design verification remains the most time-consuming and resource-intensive phase, where generating effective stimuli for the design under test (DUT) is both critical and labor-intensive. We present {\it TB or not TB}, a framework for automated stimulus generation using LLMs fine-tuned through Coverage-Driven Direct Preference Optimization (CD-DPO). To enable preference-based training, we introduce PairaNet, a dataset derived from PyraNet that pairs high- and low-quality testbenches labeled using simulation-derived coverage metrics. The proposed CD-DPO method integrates quantitative coverage feedback directly into the optimization objective, guiding the model toward generating stimuli that maximize verification coverage. Experiments on the CVDP CID12 benchmark show that {\it TB or not TB} outperforms both open-source and commercial baselines, achieving up to 77.27\% improvement in code coverage, demonstrating the effectiveness of Coverage-driven preference optimization for LLM-based hardware verification.


Identifying the Supply Chain of AI for Trustworthiness and Risk Management in Critical Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Risks associated with the use of AI, ranging from algorithmic bias to model hallucinations, have received much attention and extensive research across the AI community, from researchers to end -users. However, a gap exists in the systematic assessment of su pply chain risks associated with the complex web of data sources, pre-trained models, agents, services, and other systems that contribute to the output of modern AI systems. This gap is particularly problematic when AI systems are used in critical applications, such as the food supply, healthcare, utilities, law, insurance, and transport. We survey the current state of AI risk assessment and management, with a focus on the supply chain of AI and risks relating to the behavior and outputs of the AI system. We then present a proposed taxonomy specifically for categorizing AI supply chain enti ties. This taxonomy helps stakeholders, especially those without extensive AI expertise, to "consider the right questions" and systematically inventory dependencies across their organization's AI systems.


A time for monsters: Organizational knowing after LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are reshaping organizational knowing by unsettling the epistemological foundations of representational and practice-based perspectives. We conceptualize LLMs as Haraway-ian monsters, that is, hybrid, boundary-crossing entities that destabilize established categories while opening new possibilities for inquiry. Focusing on analogizing as a fundamental driver of knowledge, we examine how LLMs generate connections through large-scale statistical inference. Analyzing their operation across the dimensions of surface/deep analogies and near/far domains, we highlight both their capacity to expand organizational knowing and the epistemic risks they introduce. Building on this, we identify three challenges of living with such epistemic monsters: the transformation of inquiry, the growing need for dialogical vetting, and the redistribution of agency. By foregrounding the entangled dynamics of knowing-with-LLMs, the paper extends organizational theory beyond human-centered epistemologies and invites renewed attention to how knowledge is created, validated, and acted upon in the age of intelligent technologies.