We introduce Conformal Interquantile Regression (CIR), a conformal regression method that efficiently constructs near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. CIR leverages black-box machine learning models to estimate outcome distributions through interquantile ranges, transforming these estimates into compact prediction intervals while achieving approximate conditional coverage. We further propose CIR+ (Conditional Interquantile Regression with More Comparison), which enhances CIR by incorporating a width-based selection rule for interquantile intervals. This refinement yields narrower prediction intervals while maintaining comparable coverage, though at the cost of slightly increased computational time. Both methods address key limitations of existing distributional conformal prediction approaches: they handle skewed distributions more effectively than Con-formalized Quantile Regression, and they achieve substantially higher computational efficiency than Conformal Histogram Regression by eliminating the need for histogram construction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our methods optimally balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing approaches.

We propose the first approach for multiple multivariate density-density regression (MDDR), making it possible to consider the regression of a multivariate density-valued response on multiple multivariate density-valued predictors. The core idea is to define a fitted distribution using a sliced Wasserstein barycenter (SWB) of push-forwards of the predictors and to quantify deviations from the observed response using the sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance. Regression functions, which map predictors' supports to the response support, and barycenter weights are inferred within a generalized Bayes framework, enabling principled uncertainty quantification without requiring a fully specified likelihood. The inference process can be seen as an instance of an inverse SWB problem. We establish theoretical guarantees, including the stability of the SWB under perturbations of marginals and barycenter weights, sample complexity of the generalized likelihood, and posterior consistency. For practical inference, we introduce a differentiable approximation of the SWB and a smooth reparameterization to handle the simplex constraint on barycenter weights, allowing efficient gradient-based MCMC sampling. We demonstrate MDDR in an application to inference for population-scale single-cell data. Posterior analysis under the MDDR model in this example includes inference on communication between multiple source/sender cell types and a target/receiver cell type. The proposed approach provides accurate fits, reliable predictions, and interpretable posterior estimates of barycenter weights, which can be used to construct sparse cell-cell communication networks.

Large language model fine-tuning is bottlenecked by memory: a 7B parameter model requires 84GB--14GB for weights, 14GB for gradients, and 56GB for FP32 optimizer states--exceeding even A100-40GB capacity. We present Chronicals, an open-source training framework achieving 3.51x speedup over Unsloth through four synergistic optimizations: (1) fused Triton kernels eliminating 75% of memory traffic via RMSNorm (7x), SwiGLU (5x), and QK-RoPE (2.3x) fusion; (2) Cut Cross-Entropy reducing logit memory from 5GB to 135MB through online softmax computation; (3) LoRA+ with theoretically-derived 16x differential learning rates between adapter matrices; and (4) Best-Fit Decreasing sequence packing recovering 60-75% of compute wasted on padding. On Qwen2.5-0.5B with A100-40GB, Chronicals achieves 41,184 tokens/second for full fine-tuning versus Unsloth's 11,736 tokens/second (3.51x). For LoRA at rank 32, we reach 11,699 tokens/second versus Unsloth MAX's 2,857 tokens/second (4.10x). Critically, we discovered that Unsloth's reported 46,000 tokens/second benchmark exhibited zero gradient norms--the model was not training. We provide complete mathematical foundations: online softmax correctness proofs, FlashAttention IO complexity bounds O(N^2 d^2 M^{-1}), LoRA+ learning rate derivations from gradient magnitude analysis, and bin-packing approximation guarantees. All implementations, benchmarks, and proofs are available at https://github.com/Ajwebdevs/Chronicals with pip installation via https://pypi.org/project/chronicals/.

Artificial intelligence has advanced rapidly through large neural networks trained on massive datasets using thousands of GPUs or TPUs. Such training can occupy entire data centers for weeks and requires enormous computational and energy resources. Yet the optimization algorithms behind these runs have not kept pace. Most large scale training still relies on synchronous methods, where workers must wait for the slowest device, wasting compute and amplifying the effects of hardware and network variability. Removing synchronization seems like a simple fix, but asynchrony introduces staleness, meaning updates computed on outdated models. This makes analysis difficult, especially when delays arise from system level randomness rather than algorithmic choices. As a result, the time complexity of asynchronous methods remains poorly understood. This dissertation develops a rigorous framework for asynchronous first order stochastic optimization, focusing on the core challenge of heterogeneous worker speeds. Within this framework, we show that with proper design, asynchronous SGD can achieve optimal time complexity, matching guarantees previously known only for synchronous methods. Our first contribution, Ringmaster ASGD, attains optimal time complexity in the homogeneous data setting by selectively discarding stale updates. The second, Ringleader ASGD, extends optimality to heterogeneous data, common in federated learning, using a structured gradient table mechanism. Finally, ATA improves resource efficiency by learning worker compute time distributions and allocating tasks adaptively, achieving near optimal wall clock time with less computation. Together, these results establish asynchronous optimization as a theoretically sound and practically efficient foundation for distributed learning, showing that coordination without synchronization can be both feasible and optimal.

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

AI company's chatbot faces criticism over its generation of sexualized, nonconsensual images of women and girls Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company has raised $20bn in its latest funding round, the startup announced Tuesday, even as its marquee chatbot Grok faces backlash over generating sexualized, nonconsensual images of women and underage girls. The funding round exceeded its initial $15bn target, according to xAI's press release. The company touted Grok's image-generation abilities in the announcement of its latest funding round. Nonetheless, the company has been able to win government contracts and billions of dollars in investment amid the AI boom. Over the past week, Grok has responded to tens of thousands of prompts from users on X requesting the chatbot remove women's clothing in images or pose them in sexualized ways.

During a two-hour period on December 31, the analyst gathered more than 15,000 URLs of images created by Grok and screen-recorded the chatbots' "media" tab on X, where generated images--both sexualized and non-sexualized--are posted. WIRED reviewed more than a third of the URLs that the researcher gathered and found that over 2,500 were no longer available, and nearly 500 were marked as "age-restricted adult content," requiring a login to view. Many of the remaining posts still featured scantily clad women.

A California mother says her teenage son used a chatbot for drug guidance over months before dying of an overdose, raising concerns about AI safety and safeguards.

Improved carbon-cement supercapacitors could turn the concrete around us into massive energy storage systems. Concrete already builds our world, and an MIT-invented variant known as electron-conducting carbon concrete (ec, pronounced "e c cubed") holds out the possibility of helping power it, too. Now that vision is one step closer. Made by combining cement, water, ultra-fine carbon black, and electrolytes, ec creates a conductive "nanonetwork" that could enable walls, sidewalks, and bridges to store and release electrical energy like giant batteries. To date, the technology has been limited by low voltage and scalability challenges. But the latest work by the MIT team that invented ec has increased the energy storage capacity by an order of magnitude.