We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical quickest change detection methods provide strong guarantees on detection delay and false-alarm rates, existing approaches for point-process data predominantly focus on temporal changes and do not explicitly infer affected spatial regions. We propose a likelihood-free, score-based detection framework that jointly estimates the change time and the change region in continuous space-time without assuming parametric knowledge of the pre- or post-change dynamics. The method leverages a localized and conditionally weighted Hyvärinen score to quantify event-level deviations from nominal behavior and aggregates these scores using a spatio-temporal CUSUM-type statistic over a prescribed class of spatial regions. Operating sequentially, the procedure outputs both a stopping time and an estimated change region, enabling real-time detection with spatial interpretability. We establish theoretical guarantees on false-alarm control, detection delay, and spatial localization accuracy, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach through simulations and real-world spatio-temporal event data.

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success across a wide range of domains, significantly expanding the frontiers of what is achievable in artificial intelligence. Yet, despite these advances, critical challenges remain -- most notably, ensuring robustness to small input perturbations and generalization to out-of-distribution data. These critical challenges underscore the need to understand the underlying fundamental principles that govern robustness and generalization. Among the theoretical tools available, Lipschitz continuity plays a pivotal role in governing the fundamental properties of neural networks related to robustness and generalization. It quantifies the worst-case sensitivity of network's outputs to small input perturbations. While its importance is widely acknowledged, prior research has predominantly focused on empirical regularization approaches based on Lipschitz constraints, leaving the underlying principles less explored. This thesis seeks to advance a principled understanding of the principles of Lipschitz continuity in neural networks within the paradigm of machine learning, examined from two complementary perspectives: an internal perspective -- focusing on the temporal evolution of Lipschitz continuity in neural networks during training (i.e., training dynamics); and an external perspective -- investigating how Lipschitz continuity modulates the behavior of neural networks with respect to features in the input data, particularly its role in governing frequency signal propagation (i.e., modulation of frequency signal propagation).

Identifying and making statistical inferences on differential treatment effects (commonly known as subgroup analysis in clinical research) is central to precision health. Subgroup analysis allows practitioners to pinpoint populations for whom a treatment is especially beneficial or protective, thereby advancing targeted interventions. Tree based recursive partitioning methods are widely used for subgroup analysis due to their interpretability. Nevertheless, these approaches encounter significant limitations, including suboptimal partitions induced by greedy heuristics and overfitting from locally estimated splits, especially under limited sample sizes. To address these limitations, we propose a fused optimal causal tree method that leverages mixed integer optimization (MIO) to facilitate precise subgroup identification. Our approach ensures globally optimal partitions and introduces a parameter fusion constraint to facilitate information sharing across related subgroups. This design substantially improves subgroup discovery accuracy and enhances statistical efficiency. We provide theoretical guarantees by rigorously establishing out of sample risk bounds and comparing them with those of classical tree based methods. Empirically, our method consistently outperforms popular baselines in simulations. Finally, we demonstrate its practical utility through a case study on the Health and Aging Brain Study Health Disparities (HABS-HD) dataset, where our approach yields clinically meaningful insights.

Many fields collect large-scale temporal data through repeated measurements (trials), where each trial is labeled with a set of metadata variables spanning several categories. For example, a trial in a neuroscience study may be linked to a value from category (a): task difficulty, and category (b): animal choice. A critical challenge in time-series analysis is to understand how these labels are encoded within the multi-trial observations, and disentangle the distinct effect of each label entry across categories. Here, we present MILCCI, a novel data-driven method that i) identifies the interpretable components underlying the data, ii) captures cross-trial variability, and iii) integrates label information to understand each category's representation within the data. MILCCI extends a sparse per-trial decomposition that leverages label similarities within each category to enable subtle, label-driven cross-trial adjustments in component compositions and to distinguish the contribution of each category. MILCCI also learns each component's corresponding temporal trace, which evolves over time within each trial and varies flexibly across trials. We demonstrate MILCCI's performance through both synthetic and real-world examples, including voting patterns, online page view trends, and neuronal recordings.

In sensitive applications involving relational datasets, protecting information about individual links from adversarial queries is of paramount importance. In many such settings, the available data are summarized solely through the degrees of the nodes in the network. We adopt the $β$ model, which is the prototypical statistical model adopted for this form of aggregated relational information, and study the problem of minimax-optimal parameter estimation under both local and central differential privacy constraints. We establish finite sample minimax lower bounds that characterize the precise dependence of the estimation risk on the network size and the privacy parameters, and we propose simple estimators that achieve these bounds up to constants and logarithmic factors under both local and central differential privacy frameworks. Our results provide the first comprehensive finite sample characterization of privacy utility trade offs for parameter estimation in $β$ models, addressing the classical graph case and extending the analysis to higher order hypergraph models. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through experiments on synthetic data and a real world communication network.

Recent progress has rapidly advanced our understanding of the mechanisms underlying in-context learning in modern attention-based neural networks. However, existing results focus exclusively on unimodal data; in contrast, the theoretical underpinnings of in-context learning for multi-modal data remain poorly understood. We introduce a mathematically tractable framework for studying multi-modal learning and explore when transformer-like architectures can recover Bayes-optimal performance in-context. To model multi-modal problems, we assume the observed data arises from a latent factor model. Our first result comprises a negative take on expressibility: we prove that single-layer, linear self-attention fails to recover the Bayes-optimal predictor uniformly over the task distribution. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel, linearized cross-attention mechanism, which we study in the regime where both the number of cross-attention layers and the context length are large. We show that this cross-attention mechanism is provably Bayes optimal when optimized using gradient flow. Our results underscore the benefits of depth for in-context learning and establish the provable utility of cross-attention for multi-modal distributions.

Modern systems, such as digital platforms and service systems, increasingly rely on contextual bandits for online decision-making; however, their deployment can inadvertently create unfair exposure among arms, undermining long-term platform sustainability and supplier trust. This paper studies the contextual bandit problem under a uniform $(1-δ)$-fairness constraint, and addresses its unique vulnerabilities to strategic manipulation. The fairness constraint ensures that preferential treatment is strictly justified by an arm's actual reward across all contexts and time horizons, using uniformity to prevent statistical loopholes. We develop novel algorithms that achieve (nearly) minimax-optimal regret for both linear and smooth reward functions, while maintaining strong $(1-\tilde{O}(1/T))$-fairness guarantees, and further characterize the theoretically inherent yet asymptotically marginal "price of fairness". However, we reveal that such merit-based fairness becomes uniquely susceptible to signal manipulation. We show that an adversary with a minimal $\tilde{O}(1)$ budget can not only degrade overall performance as in traditional attacks, but also selectively induce insidious fairness-specific failures while leaving conspicuous regret measures largely unaffected. To counter this, we design robust variants incorporating corruption-adaptive exploration and error-compensated thresholding. Our approach yields the first minimax-optimal regret bounds under $C$-budgeted attack while preserving $(1-\tilde{O}(1/T))$-fairness. Numerical experiments and a real-world case demonstrate that our algorithms sustain both fairness and efficiency.

Setting the learning rate for a deep learning model is a critical part of successful training, yet choosing this hyperparameter is often done empirically with trial and error. In this work, we explore a solvable model of optimal learning rate schedules for a powerlaw random feature model trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We consider the optimal schedule $η_T^\star(t)$ where $t$ is the current iterate and $T$ is the total training horizon. This schedule is computed both numerically and analytically (when possible) using optimal control methods. Our analysis reveals two regimes which we term the easy phase and hard phase. In the easy phase the optimal schedule is a polynomial decay $η_T^\star(t) \simeq T^{-ξ} (1-t/T)^δ$ where $ξ$ and $δ$ depend on the properties of the features and task. In the hard phase, the optimal schedule resembles warmup-stable-decay with constant (in $T$) initial learning rate and annealing performed over a vanishing (in $T$) fraction of training steps. We investigate joint optimization of learning rate and batch size, identifying a degenerate optimality condition. Our model also predicts the compute-optimal scaling laws (where model size and training steps are chosen optimally) in both easy and hard regimes. Going beyond SGD, we consider optimal schedules for the momentum $β(t)$, where speedups in the hard phase are possible. We compare our optimal schedule to various benchmarks in our task including (1) optimal constant learning rates $η_T(t) \sim T^{-ξ}$ (2) optimal power laws $η_T(t) \sim T^{-ξ} t^{-χ}$, finding that our schedule achieves better rates than either of these. Our theory suggests that learning rate transfer across training horizon depends on the structure of the model and task. We explore these ideas in simple experimental pretraining setups.

Privacy preservation is a fundamental requirement in many high-stakes domains such as medicine and finance, where sensitive personal data must be analyzed without compromising individual confidentiality. At the same time, these applications often involve datasets with missing values due to non-response, data corruption, or deliberate anonymization. Missing data is traditionally viewed as a limitation because it reduces the information available to analysts and can degrade model performance. In this work, we take an alternative perspective and study missing data from a privacy preservation standpoint. Intuitively, when features are missing, less information is revealed about individuals, suggesting that missingness could inherently enhance privacy. We formalize this intuition by analyzing missing data as a privacy amplification mechanism within the framework of differential privacy. We show, for the first time, that incomplete data can yield privacy amplification for differentially private algorithms.

Root-cause analysis in controlled time dependent systems poses a major challenge in applications. Especially energy systems are difficult to handle as they exhibit instantaneous as well as delayed effects and if equipped with storage, do have a memory. In this paper we adapt the causal root-cause analysis method of Budhathoki et al. [2022] to general time-dependent systems, as it can be regarded as a strictly causal definition of the term "root-cause". Particularly, we discuss two truncation approaches to handle the infinite dependency graphs present in time-dependent systems. While one leaves the causal mechanisms intact, the other approximates the mechanisms at the start nodes. The effectiveness of the different approaches is benchmarked using a challenging data generation process inspired by a problem in factory energy management: the avoidance of peaks in the power consumption. We show that given enough lags our extension is able to localize the root-causes in the feature and time domain. Further the effect of mechanism approximation is discussed.