Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference. We show that fully generative tabular synthesizers, including GAN- and LLM-based models, can preserve predictive utility while distorting average treatment effect (ATE) estimates. The failure is structural: ATE preservation requires both a realistic covariate law and an accurate treatment-effect contrast, whereas prediction loss penalizes treatment-effect error only through an overlap-weighted term. We formalize this mismatch through sensitivity and loss-decomposition results, and identify an analogous decomposition in block-level next-token prediction under log loss. Motivated by the tabular causal analysis, we propose a hybrid synthetic-data framework that generates covariates while modeling treatment and outcome mechanisms separately, allowing causal-purpose treatment assignment such as randomized synthetic assignment. We evaluate this framework in three settings: ATE preservation under fully generative versus hybrid synthesis, targeted augmentation for practical positivity problems, and synthetic simulation engines for comparing OR, IPW, AIPW, and TMLE before real-data analysis. Across synthetic and ACTG experiments, hybrid synthesis improves causal fidelity relative to fully generative baselines; LLM-based hybrid synthesis is often more faithful than CTGAN for ATE preservation and finite-sample estimator benchmarking.

In quantum machine learning (QML), classical data are often encoded as quantum pure states and processed directly as quantum representations, motivating representation-level generative modeling that samples new quantum states from an underlying pure-state ensemble rather than re-preparing them from perturbed classical inputs. However, extending \emph{score-based} diffusion models with well-defined reverse-time samplers to quantum pure-state ensembles remains challenging, due to the non-Euclidean geometry of the complex projective space $\mathbb{CP}^{d-1}$ and the intractability of transition densities. We propose \emph{Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models} (SSDMs), an intrinsic score-based generative framework on $\mathbb{CP}^{d-1}$ endowed with the Fubini--Study (FS) metric. SSDMs formulate a forward Riemannian diffusion with a stochastic Schrödinger equation (SSE) realization, and derive reverse-time dynamics driven by the Riemannian score $\nabla_{\mathrm{FS}} \log p_t$. To enable training without analytic transition densities, we introduce a local-time objective based on a local Euclidean Ornstein--Uhlenbeck approximation in FS normal coordinates, yielding an analytic teacher score mapped back to the manifold. Experiments show that SSDMs faithfully capture target pure-state ensemble statistics, including observable moments, overlap-kernel MMD, and entanglement measures, and that SSDM-generated quantum representations improve downstream QML generalization via representation-level data augmentation.

Accurate boundary detection in high-dimensional data remains a central challenge in unsupervised learning, particularly in the presence of non-linear structures and heterogeneous densities. In this work, we introduce Mean Curvature Boundary Points (MCBP), a novel geometric framework grounded in Geometric Machine Learning that departs from traditional density-based approaches by explicitly modeling the intrinsic curvature of the data manifold. The method relies on a discrete approximation of the shape operator, estimated from local k-nearest neighbor patches, to compute pointwise mean curvature without requiring explicit manifold parametrization. The key insight of MCBP is to use mean curvature as a principled descriptor of boundary structure: high-curvature regions naturally correspond to transitions between clusters, geometric irregularities, and low-density interfaces. This yields a unified geometric interpretation of boundary, outlier, and transition points. We further introduce an adaptive percentile-based thresholding scheme that enables multiscale boundary extraction without relying on ad hoc density parameters. Beyond detection, we propose a curvature-driven data decomposition that separates samples into smooth (low-curvature) and boundary (high-curvature) subsets, effectively acting as a non-linear geometric filtering mechanism. This representation enhances cluster separability and improves the robustness of downstream unsupervised algorithms. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MCBP consistently improves clustering performance, particularly in complex and high-dimensional scenarios. These results position MCBP as a concrete contribution to Geometric Machine Learning, highlighting the potential of curvature-aware analysis as a unifying paradigm bridging differential geometry and data-driven modeling.

A central challenge in dynamic network analysis is to represent temporal evolution in a way that is both geometrically meaningful and statistically identifiable. One approach embeds a sequence of network snapshots as trajectories in a Euclidean space and relates these trajectories to node embeddings. In multilayer and unfolded spectral constructions, however, node embeddings and their underlying latent positions are identifiable only up to general linear transformations. Although this ambiguity preserves edge probabilities, it can distort geometry and invalidate distance based temporal comparisons at both the trajectory and node-levels. We develop Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories (MENT), a framework for multiscale temporal trajectories based on second-moment geometry. By imposing an isotropic normalization on the anchor latent positions, we reduce the relevant ambiguity to orthogonal transformations and prevent distortion of the second-moment geometry. In this canonical representation, we define a trace variation distance and mode-wise variation distances along orthogonal directions, and use multidimensional scaling to obtain low-dimensional trajectories of time points at both global and mode-wise levels. The resulting trajectories support interpretation and inference. They admit mode-wise decompositions, support attribution of global and mode-wise temporal changes to nodes, and enable change point detection through 1D trajectories. We prove consistency of the proposed unfolded spectral embedding and of the induced temporal trajectories. Experiments on two synthetic and two real dynamic networks illustrate stable and interpretable recovery of temporal structure and show strong performance against existing change point detection baselines.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere $\mathbb S^{d-1}$. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on $\mathbb S^{d-1}$ to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on $(\mathbb S^{d-1})^L$ both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Gaussian process (GP) marginal likelihood scores and kernel conditional independence tests are theoretically appealing for nonlinear causal discovery but computationally prohibitive at scale. We present three complementary RFF-based methods forming a practical toolkit for score-based, constraint-based, and hybrid causal discovery. The Fourier Feature Marginal Likelihood (FFML) score approximates the exact GP marginal likelihood by replacing the $n x n$ kernel Gram matrix with a finite-dimensional feature representation, reducing cost to $O(nm^2 + m^3)$ while retaining the probabilistic interpretation and automatic complexity penalty of the exact score. FFML extends to mixed (continuous and discrete) parent sets via a product-kernel construction, with a Kronecker path for small discrete parent sets and a Hadamard-product path otherwise. The Tetrad Random Fourier Feature (TRFF) score is a complementary BIC-style alternative using penalized Student-t regression with random Fourier features. TRFF offers robustness to heavy-tailed noise and faster runtime than FFML. Empirically, TRFF and FFML exhibit a complementary precision-recall profile: TRFF achieves higher precision while FFML achieves better recall and lower SHD overall. The Fourier Feature Conditional Independence (FFCI) test is a fast nonparametric CI test for mixed data, using ridge residualization in feature space and a Frobenius-norm cross-covariance statistic approximated as a weighted sum of chi-squared variables. Empirically, BOSS+FFML achieves the lowest SHD on nonlinear data, while BOSS+TRFF offers the highest precision. When run through PC-Max, FFCI and RCIT exhibit complementary precision-recall profiles: RCIT is more precise while FFCI achieves better recall and substantially lower SHD, at approximately twice the runtime.

We propose PathBoost, a gradient tree boosting method for graph-level classification and regression that learns discriminative path-based features directly from the input graph structure. Building on a previous work, which was tailored to a specific chemistry application, PathBoost introduces three key extensions: (i) adaptation to binary classification through gradient boosting with a logistic loss, (ii) incorporation of multiple node and edge attributes into the path feature space via a prefix-based decomposition, and (iii) automatic anchor node selection based on categorical attribute diversity, eliminating the need for the user to specify the starting point of the considered path features. We compared PathBoost to graph neural networks and graph kernel approaches on several benchmark datasets, obtaining better results in half of them, and comparable results in the rest. PathBoost shows better performances on graphs with larger average node counts. Overall, the results demonstrate that path-based boosting methods can be competitive with more complex black-box approaches.

Dynamics of interacting systems in engineering, society, and nature often evolve over latent networks that govern which entities can interact. We study the problem of inferring these networks from event-based observations, which arise naturally in finance, seismology, and neuroscience. While there is substantial algorithmic work addressing this important problem, theoretical results are scarce. In this paper we ask the following fundamental question: what is the minimum time that one must observe the dynamics in order to exactly recover the underlying network, as a function of the number $d$ of interacting entities? For a class of stationary Hawkes processes with sparse, weak interactions, we prove that an observation time of order $\log d$ is sufficient and necessary. For the upper bound we construct a two-stage estimator that uses clipped and binned event data for screening, followed by a least-squares refinement, and apply concentration bounds derived from the Poisson cluster representation. For the lower bound we combine Fano's inequality with Jacod's Girsanov formula for point processes on a suitable subclass of networks.

Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.

We introduce the Sinkhorn treatment effect, an entropic optimal transport measure of divergence between counterfactual distributions. Unlike classical quantities such as the average treatment effect, this measure captures differences across entire distributions. We analyze this divergence as a statistical functional and show it can be written as a smooth transformation of counterfactual mean embeddings with an appropriate kernel. This characterization allows us to establish first-order pathwise differentiability in general, and second-order pathwise differentiability under the null hypothesis of equal counterfactual distributions. Leveraging this smoothness, we construct debiased estimators and use them to obtain asymptotically valid tests for distributional treatment effects with a fixed entropic regularization parameter. Because the power of the test depends on this unknown parameter, we further propose an aggregated test that combines evidence across a grid of regularization choices. Experiments on simulated and image data demonstrate the practical advantages of our estimator and testing procedure.