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A Meta-learning based Stacked Regression Approach for Customer Lifetime Value Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- Companies across the globe are keen on targeting potential high-value customers in an attempt to expand revenue and this could be achieved only by understanding the customers more. Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is the total monetary value of transactions/purchases made by a customer with the business over an intended period of time and is used as means to estimate future customer interactions. CLV finds application in a number of distinct business domains such as Banking, Insurance, Online-entertainment, Gaming, and E-Commerce. The existing distribution-based and basic (recency, frequency & monetary) based models face a limitation in terms of handling a wide variety of input features. Moreover, the more advanced Deep learning approaches could be superfluous and add an undesirable element of complexity in certain application areas. We, therefore, propose a system which is able to qualify both as effective, and comprehensive yet simple and interpretable. With that in mind, we develop a meta-learning-based stacked regression model which combines the predictions from bagging and boosting models that each is found to perform well individually. Empirical tests have been carried out on an openly available Online Retail dataset to evaluate various models and show the efficacy of the proposed approach. The key to flourishing businesses lies in understanding the customers using various aspects of their interactions with the businesses.


Should we trust web-scraped data?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing adoption of econometric and machine-learning approaches by empirical researchers has led to a widespread use of one data collection method: web scraping. Web scraping refers to the use of automated computer programs to access websites and download their content. The key argument of this paper is that na\"ive web scraping procedures can lead to sampling bias in the collected data. This article describes three sources of sampling bias in web-scraped data. More specifically, sampling bias emerges from web content being volatile (i.e., being subject to change), personalized (i.e., presented in response to request characteristics), and unindexed (i.e., abundance of a population register). In a series of examples, I illustrate the prevalence and magnitude of sampling bias. To support researchers and reviewers, this paper provides recommendations on anticipating, detecting, and overcoming sampling bias in web-scraped data.


Personalized Category Frequency prediction for Buy It Again recommendations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Buy It Again (BIA) recommendations are crucial to retailers to help improve user experience and site engagement by suggesting items that customers are likely to buy again based on their own repeat purchasing patterns. Most existing BIA studies analyze guests personalized behavior at item granularity. A category-based model may be more appropriate in such scenarios. We propose a recommendation system called a hierarchical PCIC model that consists of a personalized category model (PC model) and a personalized item model within categories (IC model). PC model generates a personalized list of categories that customers are likely to purchase again. IC model ranks items within categories that guests are likely to consume within a category. The hierarchical PCIC model captures the general consumption rate of products using survival models. Trends in consumption are captured using time series models. Features derived from these models are used in training a category-grained neural network. We compare PCIC to twelve existing baselines on four standard open datasets. PCIC improves NDCG up to 16 percent while improving recall by around 2 percent. We were able to scale and train (over 8 hours) PCIC on a large dataset of 100M guests and 3M items where repeat categories of a guest out number repeat items. PCIC was deployed and AB tested on the site of a major retailer, leading to significant gains in guest engagement.


Amazon's Echo Show 5 is back on sale for $50

Engadget

If you've had your eye on the new Echo Show 5 but weren't able to grab one on Prime Day, the diminutive smart display is back on sale for $50. While we saw the device go for $5 less during Amazon's sales event, that deal was exclusive to Prime members. This $40 discount is open to everyone and marks the second-lowest price we've seen since the display arrived in May. The Kids version of the display is also on sale for $60, though that's $10 more it was on Prime Day. This deal is $5 more than the all-time low we saw during Prime Day, but it's the best price we've seen outside of that, and it isn't exclusive to Amazon Prime subscribers.


95 Best Prime Day Deals Still Going Strong (2023): Phones, Laptops, Espresso Machines

WIRED

After a full 48 hours, Amazon Prime Day 2023 is officially over. We hope you were able to find useful discounts among the Kindles, Echo Dots, iPads, LifeStraws, and other great deals we found sifting through the internet. If you missed out, fear not, a few great deals remain--at least for now. Below are the best remaining deals not just at Amazon, but at other retailers like Best Buy, Target, and Walmart too. Speaking of, Walmart Plus Week (the retailer's answer to Prime Day), officially ends tonight. Target Circle Week runs a little longer, with deals running through July 15. We have a Walmart and Target deals roundup you can peruse if you're looking for more discounts. Don't forget to check out our buying guides for more information. If you buy something using links in our stories, we may earn a commission. This helps support our journalism. This TV is the best for most folks. The TCL Q6 has quantum dot technology and support for every major high dynamic range (HDR) format for gorgeous colors, and a game mode that goes up to 120 frames per second. The only downside is that it comes with Google TV rather than Roku as its interface. It's a pretty interface with all the apps you want, but it is a little sluggish. Samsung's Neo QLED panels are some of the best and brightest we've ever seen, making them particularly well-suited to brighter viewing spaces.


The 50 Best Amazon Prime Day Deals Under $50

WIRED

A great deal doesn't always mean that it's going to be cheap. If you're getting a computer or a couch, you're probably going to be outlaying some cash. We've rounded up the best deals from Amazon Prime Day that are a great deal and easy on the wallet. Whether you need an iPhone case, a screen protector, or a weighted blanket, we have those here. Some of these deals might require a membership, including Amazon Prime or Target Circle. Amazon Prime has a free 30-day trial. Target Circle is free to sign up, and you'll need to save the offer to your account from the main offer page or on the actual buy page for a particular item to see the deal price at checkout. Updated Wednesday, July 12: Added Satisfyer Pro 2, Tenga Crysta Leaf stroker, Loop Earplugs, PNY 64GB SD Card 3-pack, Espro Ultralight Coffee Press, and National Geographic rock tumbler. If you buy something using links in our stories, we may earn a commission.


The 125 Best Prime Day Deals to Snag Before Midnight

WIRED

Amazon Prime Day is back again. It wasn't that long since the last one--the retailer held its first-ever fall Prime Day sales event in 2022, and there will be another one this fall as well. But right now, the two-day event runs through July 12. We've spent hours combing through thousands of lists to find the best Prime Day deals 2023 on WIRED-tested gear, from Fire tablets to video games and Apple Watches to standing desks. Updated Wednesday, July 12: We added a bunch more deals we love and added prices and links. If you buy something using links in our stories, we may earn a commission. This helps support our journalism. See the rest of our Phone and Tablet Deals for Prime Day here. Even with the addition of the 10th-generation iPad, we still think the ninth-generation iPad (8/10, WIRED Recommends) from 2021 is the best iPad for most people. It has the same shape and size as its predecessors, so all current accessories will work, including the first-generation Apple Pencil and Apple's Smart Keyboard. It retains the classic Home button with Touch ID plus thick borders around the 10.2-inch screen. This is the lowest price we've tracked. The Apple Pencil is one of the most useful tools you can add to the iPad. The second-gen pencil works with nearly every iPad in Apple's current lineup (except for the 9th- and 10th-gen iPad; if you have one, the first-gen Pencil is also on sale). Like a normal pencil, your lines get thicker as you press down harder. The Pencil is also great for navigating iPadOS, which has handwriting support in various search fields so you don't need to switch to the keyboard to type. It pairs and charges automatically when you stick it to the edge of the slate. Logitech's Combo Touch case is detachable, so you can ditch the keyboard when you don't need it and still have a kickstand case. It's fairly slim, with a lovely fabric texture, and the kickstand easily passes the lap test--it didn't wobble much or make the iPad fall off while you typed with it on your lap. If you want a bigger screen for travel, the iPad Mini (8/10, WIRED Recommends) has the edge over its peers. The design mimics the iPad Pro, with slim bezels around the 8.3-inch screen. Its compact size makes it the best slate to take with you everywhere. You might even be able to fit it into your cargo pants.


The 125 Best Prime Day Deals to Snag Before Midnight

WIRED

Amazon Prime Day is back again. It wasn't that long since the last one--the retailer held its first-ever fall Prime Day sales event in 2022, and there will be another one this fall as well. But right now, the two-day event runs through July 12. We've spent hours combing through thousands of lists to find the best Prime Day deals 2023 on WIRED-tested gear, from Fire tablets to video games and Apple Watches to standing desks. Updated Wednesday, July 12: We added a bunch more deals we love and added prices and links. If you buy something using links in our stories, we may earn a commission. This helps support our journalism. See the rest of our Phone and Tablet Deals for Prime Day here. Even with the addition of the 10th-generation iPad, we still think the ninth-generation iPad (8/10, WIRED Recommends) from 2021 is the best iPad for most people. It has the same shape and size as its predecessors, so all current accessories will work, including the first-generation Apple Pencil and Apple's Smart Keyboard. It retains the classic Home button with Touch ID plus thick borders around the 10.2-inch screen. This is the lowest price we've tracked. The Apple Pencil is one of the most useful tools you can add to the iPad. The second-gen pencil works with nearly every iPad in Apple's current lineup (except for the 9th- and 10th-gen iPad; if you have one, the first-gen Pencil is also on sale). Like a normal pencil, your lines get thicker as you press down harder. The Pencil is also great for navigating iPadOS, which has handwriting support in various search fields so you don't need to switch to the keyboard to type. It pairs and charges automatically when you stick it to the edge of the slate. Logitech's Combo Touch case is detachable, so you can ditch the keyboard when you don't need it and still have a kickstand case. It's fairly slim, with a lovely fabric texture, and the kickstand easily passes the lap test--it didn't wobble much or make the iPad fall off while you typed with it on your lap. If you want a bigger screen for travel, the iPad Mini (8/10, WIRED Recommends) has the edge over its peers. The design mimics the iPad Pro, with slim bezels around the 8.3-inch screen. Its compact size makes it the best slate to take with you everywhere. You might even be able to fit it into your cargo pants.


27 Best Prime Day Deals on Amazon Devices (2023): Kindles, Echo Speakers, and Fire Tablets

WIRED

Amazon devices go on sale all the time, but Prime Day is still special. The sales event brings the lowest prices of the year to Amazon hardware like Kindles, Fire TV sticks, Echo speakers, and other gadgets. Most Amazon deals are available exclusively to Amazon Prime members, but there's a chance that other retailers will price-match Amazon's own discounts. We likely won't see deals like this again until around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and even then, today's prices may be cheaper. We've rounded up the best Amazon device deals below. You can also check out all of the Amazon Device Prime Day Deals on the dedicated store page.


99 Best Prime Day Deals for Your Kitchen and Home (2023)

WIRED

So are all the things we'd like to fill said homes with. But Amazon Prime Day is ripe with deals to pick up all your dream home goods--like a KitchenAid mixer, a robot mop-vac, a smart security camera, or a fantastic weighted blanket--at a better price. We've rounded up all the best Prime Day home and kitchen deals worth shopping for. Note: Many of these deals may require a membership, including Amazon Prime, Target Circle, or Walmart Plus. Amazon Prime has a free 30-day trial if you don't already have it (set a reminder to cancel it before it automatically renews). Target Circle is free to sign up, but you'll need to save the offer to your account from the main offer page or on the actual purchase page for a particular item to see the deal price at checkout. Many of Walmart's deals are in early access for subscribers but will be available for everyone later in the day. Update July 12: We added a bunch of new deals to this post. If you buy something using links in our stories, we may earn a commission. This helps support our journalism. KitchenAid stand mixers are pricey, but they're a long-term investment that's well worth it for many home chefs and bakers. This 4.5-quart version is a solid sale and a nice size for smaller kitchens and homes. This isn't as good of a deal as we saw over Memorial Day, and we usually see prices dip a little lower during Black Friday if you aren't in a hurry to own a KitchenAid. If your kitchen space is lacking, sometimes you need to use your stovetop as prep space. One of these cutting boards covers half a typical stove, giving you a workstation for chopping or setting down your utensils, or you can get two to cover all four burners. It's good to use less plastic and these wraps are some of our favorite reusable products.