Time series forecasting is a critical first step in generating demand plans for supply chains. Experiments on time series models typically focus on demonstrating improvements in forecast accuracy over existing/baseline solutions, quantified according to some accuracy metric. There is no doubt that forecast accuracy is important; however in production systems, demand planners often value consistency and stability over incremental accuracy improvements. Assuming that the inputs have not changed significantly, forecasts that vary drastically from one planning cycle to the next require high amounts of human intervention, which frustrates demand planners and can even cause them to lose trust in ML forecasting models. We study model-induced stochasticity, which quantifies the variance of a set of forecasts produced by a single model when the set of inputs is fixed. Models with lower variance are more stable. Recently the forecasting community has seen significant advances in forecast accuracy through the development of deep machine learning models for time series forecasting. We perform a case study measuring the stability and accuracy of state-of-the-art forecasting models (Chronos, DeepAR, PatchTST, Temporal Fusion Transformer, TiDE, and the AutoGluon best quality ensemble) on public data sets from the M5 competition and Favorita grocery sales. We show that ensemble models improve stability without significantly deteriorating (or even improving) forecast accuracy. While these results may not be surprising, the main point of this paper is to propose the need for further study of forecast stability for models that are being deployed in production systems.

Claire's on brink of collapse putting 2,150 jobs at risk 15 minutes agoShareSaveTom EspinerBusiness reporter, BBC NewsShareSaveEPA Claire's will appoint administrators after struggles with online competition. Fashion accessories chain Claire's is on the brink of collapse after the retailer said it will appoint administrators in the UK and Ireland, putting 2,150 jobs at risk. The company has 278 stores in the UK and 28 in Ireland but has been struggling with falling sales and fierce competition. All the shops will continue trading while administrators at Interpath, once appointed, will "assess options for the company". Interpath chief executive Will Wright, said options include "exploring the possibility of a sale which would secure a future for this well-loved brand". Claire's in the US filed for bankruptcy in the US earlier this month.

How can we build general-purpose robot systems for open-world semantic navigation, e.g., searching a novel environment for a target object specified in natural language? To tackle this challenge, we introduce OSG Navigator, a modular system composed of foundation models, for open-world Object-Goal Navigation (ObjectNav). Foundation models provide enormous semantic knowledge about the world, but struggle to organise and maintain spatial information effectively at scale. Key to OSG Navigator is the Open Scene Graph representation, which acts as spatial memory for OSG Navigator. It organises spatial information hierarchically using OSG schemas, which are templates, each describing the common structure of a class of environments. OSG schemas can be automatically generated from simple semantic labels of a given environment, e.g., "home" or "supermarket". They enable OSG Navigator to adapt zero-shot to new environment types. We conducted experiments using both Fetch and Spot robots in simulation and in the real world, showing that OSG Navigator achieves state-of-the-art performance on ObjectNav benchmarks and generalises zero-shot over diverse goals, environments, and robot embodiments.

Data augmentation is gaining importance across various aspects of time series analysis, from forecasting to classification and anomaly detection tasks. We introduce the Latent Generative Transformer Augmentation (L-GTA) model, a generative approach using a transformer-based variational recurrent autoencoder. This model uses controlled transformations within the latent space of the model to generate new time series that preserve the intrinsic properties of the original dataset. L-GTA enables the application of diverse transformations, ranging from simple jittering to magnitude warping, and combining these basic transformations to generate more complex synthetic time series datasets. Our evaluation of several real-world datasets demonstrates the ability of L-GTA to produce more reliable, consistent, and controllable augmented data. This translates into significant improvements in predictive accuracy and similarity measures compared to direct transformation methods.

Accurately identifying items forgotten during a supermarket visit and providing clear, interpretable explanations for recommending them remains an underexplored problem within the Next Basket Prediction (NBP) domain. Existing NBP approaches typically only focus on forecasting future purchases, without explicitly addressing the detection of unintentionally omitted items. This gap is partly due to the scarcity of real-world datasets that allow for the reliable estimation of forgotten items. Furthermore, most current NBP methods rely on black-box models, which lack transparency and limit the ability to justify recommendations to end users. In this paper, we formally introduce the forgotten item prediction task and propose two novel interpretable-by-design algorithms. These methods are tailored to identify forgotten items while offering intuitive, human-understandable explanations. Experiments on a real-world retail dataset show our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art NBP baselines by 10-15% across multiple evaluation metrics.

The fashion retail business is centered around the capacity to comprehend products. Product attribution helps in comprehending products depending on the business process. Quality attribution improves the customer experience as they navigate through millions of products offered by a retail website. It leads to well-organized product catalogs. In the end, product attribution directly impacts the 'discovery experience' of the customer. Although large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in understanding multimodal data, their performance on fine-grained fashion attribute recognition remains under-explored. This paper presents a zero-shot evaluation of state-of-the-art LLMs that balance performance with speed and cost efficiency, mainly GPT-4o-mini and Gemini 2.0 Flash. We have used the dataset DeepFashion-MultiModal (https://github.com/yumingj/DeepFashion-MultiModal) to evaluate these models in the attribution tasks of fashion products. Our study evaluates these models across 18 categories of fashion attributes, offering insight into where these models excel. We only use images as the sole input for product information to create a constrained environment. Our analysis shows that Gemini 2.0 Flash demonstrates the strongest overall performance with a macro F1 score of 56.79% across all attributes, while GPT-4o-mini scored a macro F1 score of 43.28%. Through detailed error analysis, our findings provide practical insights for deploying these LLMs in production e-commerce product attribution-related tasks and highlight the need for domain-specific fine-tuning approaches. This work also lays the groundwork for future research in fashion AI and multimodal attribute extraction.

AI agents today are mostly siloed - they either retrieve and reason over vast amount of digital information and knowledge obtained online; or interact with the physical world through embodied perception, planning and action - but rarely both. This separation limits their ability to solve tasks that require integrated physical and digital intelligence, such as cooking from online recipes, navigating with dynamic map data, or interpreting real-world landmarks using web knowledge. We introduce Embodied Web Agents, a novel paradigm for AI agents that fluidly bridge embodiment and web-scale reasoning. To operationalize this concept, we first develop the Embodied Web Agents task environments, a unified simulation platform that tightly integrates realistic 3D indoor and outdoor environments with functional web interfaces. Building upon this platform, we construct and release the Embodied Web Agents Benchmark, which encompasses a diverse suite of tasks including cooking, navigation, shopping, tourism, and geolocation - all requiring coordinated reasoning across physical and digital realms for systematic assessment of cross-domain intelligence. Experimental results reveal significant performance gaps between state-of-the-art AI systems and human capabilities, establishing both challenges and opportunities at the intersection of embodied cognition and web-scale knowledge access. All datasets, codes and websites are publicly available at our project page https://embodied-web-agent.github.io/.

Despite significant advancements in time series forecasting, accurate modeling of time series with strong heterogeneity in magnitude and/or sparsity patterns remains challenging for state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We identify several factors that lead existing models to systematically underperform on low-magnitude and sparse time series, including loss functions with implicit biases toward high-magnitude series, training-time sampling methods, and limitations of time series encoding methods. SPADE-S is a robust forecasting architecture that significantly reduces magnitude- and sparsity-based systematic biases and improves overall prediction accuracy. Empirical results demonstrate that SPADE-S outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches across a diverse set of use cases in demand forecasting. In particular, we show that, depending on the quantile forecast and magnitude of the series, SPADE-S can improve forecast accuracy by up to 15%. This results in P90 overall forecast accuracy gains of 2.21%, 6.58%, and 4.28%, and P50 forecast accuracy gains of 0.92%, 0.77%, and 1.95%, respectively, for each of three distinct datasets, ranging from 3 million to 700 million series, from a large online retailer.

There are numerous frameworks capable of creating and orchestrating agents to address complex tasks. However, most of them highly coupled Python programming with agent declaration, making it hard for maintenance and runtime optimization. In this work, we introduce ADL, an agent declarative language for customer service chatbots. ADL abstracts away implementation details, offering a declarative way to define agents and their interactions, which could ease maintenance and debugging. It also incorporates natural language programming at its core to simplify the specification and communication of chatbot designs. ADL includes four basic types of agents and supports integration with custom functions, tool use, and third-party agents. MICA, a multi-agent system designed to interpret and execute ADL programs, has been developed and is now available as an open-source project at https://github.com/Mica-labs/MICA. Its documentation can be found at https://mica-labs.github.io/.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong potential in generating 'believable human-like' behavior in web environments. Prior work has explored augmenting training data with LLM-synthesized rationales and applying supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to enhance reasoning ability, which in turn can improve downstream action prediction. However, the performance of such approaches remains inherently bounded by the reasoning capabilities of the model used to generate the rationales. In this paper, we introduce Shop-R1, a novel reinforcement learning (RL) framework aimed at enhancing the reasoning ability of LLMs for simulation of real human behavior in online shopping environments Specifically, Shop-R1 decomposes the human behavior simulation task into two stages: rationale generation and action prediction, each guided by distinct reward signals. For rationale generation, we leverage internal model signals (e.g., logit distributions) to guide the reasoning process in a self-supervised manner. For action prediction, we propose a hierarchical reward structure with difficulty-aware scaling to prevent reward hacking and enable fine-grained reward assignment. This design evaluates both high-level action types and the correctness of fine-grained sub-action details (attributes and values), rewarding outputs proportionally to their difficulty. Experimental results show that our method achieves a relative improvement of over 65% compared to the baseline.