The rich expressivity provided by the cognitive event calculus (CEC) knowledge representation framework allows for reasoning over deeply nested beliefs, desires, intentions, and so on. I put CEC to the test by attempting to model the complex reasoning and deceptive planning used in an episode of the popular television show Breaking Bad. CEC is used to represent the knowledge used by reasoners coming up with plans like the ones devised by the fictional characters I describe. However, it becomes clear that a form of nonmonotonic reasoning is necessary—specifically so that an agent can reason about the nonmonotonic beliefs of another agent. I show how CEC can be augmented to have this ability, and then provide examples detailing how my proposed augmentation enables much of the reasoning used by agents such as the Breaking Bad characters. I close by discussing what sort of reasoning tool would be necessary to implement such nonmonotonic reasoning.

We present Fiascomatic , a mixed initiative system for generating consistent scenarios for the indie storytelling RPG Fiasco . Players can repeatedly generate scenarios, locking down aspects of a scenario they like and regenerating aspects they don’t, until they arrive at a scenario they find entertaining.  It is not a story generation system; it generates scenarios from which players then generate stories.  Nor is it intended to generate optimal scenarios; it generates random scenarios which the players can then curate according to their taste. Fiascomatic presents an interesting intermediate point between non-automated table-top RPGs and fully automated systems such as story generators or autonomous characters.  It is a tool that can be used by Fiasco players to speed the generation of game setups while preserving creative input on the part of the players, and by Fiasco playset authors to make automated playsets.

Music composition can be a challenge for many small- to medium-sized game companies, largely due to the expense and difficulty in creating original music for each level of a game. To address this, we developed a tool that automatically generates original music, by training a music generator on pieces whose style the game designer wishes to imitate. The generator then creates original music in that style in real-time, and switches between styles when signaled by the game. This software has been refined to produce music that is coherent and imitates a composer’s larger music structure.

A system is presented that segments, clusters and predicts musical audio in an unsupervised manner, adjusting the number of (timbre) clusters instantaneously to the audio input. A sequence learning algorithm adapts its structure to a dynamically changing clustering tree. The flow of the system is as follows: 1) segmentation by onset detection, 2) timbre representation of each segment by Mel frequency cepstrum coefficients, 3) discretization by incremental clustering, yielding a tree of different sound classes (e.g. instruments) that can grow or shrink on the fly driven by the instantaneous sound events, resulting in a discrete symbol sequence, 4) extraction of statistical regularities of the symbol sequence, using hierarchical N-grams and the newly introduced conceptual Boltzmann machine, and 5) prediction of the next sound event in the sequence. The system's robustness is assessed with respect to complexity and noisiness of the signal. Clustering in isolation yields an adjusted Rand index (ARI) of 82.7% / 85.7% for data sets of singing voice and drums. Onset detection jointly with clustering achieve an ARI of 81.3% / 76.3% and the prediction of the entire system yields an ARI of 27.2% / 39.2%.

This study investigates the content of the published scientific literature in the fields of operations research and management science (OR/MS) since the early 1950s. Our study is based on 80,757 published journal abstracts from 37 of the leading OR/MS journals. We have developed a topic model, using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), and extend this analysis to reveal the temporal dynamics of the field, journals, and topics. Our analysis shows the generality or specificity of each of the journals, and we identify groups of journals with similar content, which are both consistent and inconsistent with intuition. We also show how journals have become more or less unique in their scope. A more detailed analysis of each journals' topics over time shows significant temporal dynamics, especially for journals with niche content. This study presents an observational, yet objective, view of the published literature from OR/MS that would be of interest to authors, editors, journals, and publishers. Furthermore, this work can be used by new entrants to the fields of OR/MS to understand the content landscape, as a starting point for discussions and inquiry of the field at large, or as a model for other fields to perform similar analyses.

Recommending items to users is a challenging task due to the large amount of missing information. In many cases, the data solely consist of ratings or tags voluntarily contributed by each user on a very limited subset of the available items, so that most of the data of potential interest is actually missing. Current approaches to recommendation usually assume that the unobserved data is missing at random. In this contribution, we provide statistical evidence that existing movie recommendation datasets reveal a significant positive association between the rating of items and the propensity to select these items. We propose a computationally efficient variational approach that makes it possible to exploit this selection bias so as to improve the estimation of ratings from small populations of users. Results obtained with this approach applied to neighborhood-based collaborative filtering illustrate its potential for improving the reliability of the recommendation.

The AAAI 2015 Spring Symposium Series was held Monday through Wednesday, March 23-25, at Stanford University near Palo Alto, California. The titles of the seven symposia were Ambient Intelligence for Health and Cognitive Enhancement, Applied Computational Game Theory, Foundations of Autonomy and Its (Cyber) Threats: From Individuals to Interdependence, Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Integrating Symbolic and Neural Approaches, Logical Formalizations of Commonsense Reasoning, Socio-Technical Behavior Mining: From Data to Decisions, Structured Data for Humanitarian Technologies: Perfect Fit or Overkill? and Turn-Taking and Coordination in Human-Machine Interaction.The highlights of each symposium are presented in this report.

In this article, we report on a multiphase R&D effort to develop a conversational second screen application for TV program discovery. Our goal is to share with the community the breadth of artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language (NL) technologies required to develop such an application along with learnings from target end-users. We first give an overview of our application from the perspective of the end-user. We then present the architecture of our application along with the main AI and NL components, which were developed over multiple phases. The first phase focuses on enabling core functionality such as effectively finding programs matching the user’s intent. The second phase focuses on enabling dialog with the user. Finally, we present two user studies, corresponding to these two phases. The results from both studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our application in the target domain.

In this paper, we provide a review of how such statistical models can be "trained" on large knowledge graphs, and then used to predict new facts about the world (which is equivalent to predicting new edges in the graph). In particular, we discuss two fundamentally different kinds of statistical relational models, both of which can scale to massive datasets. The first is based on latent feature models such as tensor factorization and multiway neural networks. The second is based on mining observable patterns in the graph. We also show how to combine these latent and observable models to get improved modeling power at decreased computational cost. Finally, we discuss how such statistical models of graphs can be combined with text-based information extraction methods for automatically constructing knowledge graphs from the Web. To this end, we also discuss Google's Knowledge Vault project as an example of such combination.

Deep dynamic generative models are developed to learn sequential dependencies in time-series data. The multi-layered model is designed by constructing a hierarchy of temporal sigmoid belief networks (TSBNs), defined as a sequential stack of sigmoid belief networks (SBNs). Each SBN has a contextual hidden state, inherited from the previous SBNs in the sequence, and is used to regulate its hidden bias. Scalable learning and inference algorithms are derived by introducing a recognition model that yields fast sampling from the variational posterior. This recognition model is trained jointly with the generative model, by maximizing its variational lower bound on the log-likelihood. Experimental results on bouncing balls, polyphonic music, motion capture, and text streams show that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance, and has the capacity to synthesize various sequences.