Rare events are occurrences that take place with a significantly lower frequency than more common regular events. In manufacturing, predicting such events is particularly important, as they lead to unplanned downtime, shortening equipment lifespan, and high energy consumption. The occurrence of events is considered frequently-rare if observed in more than 10% of all instances, very-rare if it is 1-5%, moderately-rare if it is 5-10%, and extremely-rare if less than 1%. The rarity of events is inversely correlated with the maturity of a manufacturing industry. Typically, the rarity of events affects the multivariate data generated within a manufacturing process to be highly imbalanced, which leads to bias in predictive models. This paper evaluates the role of data enrichment techniques combined with supervised machine-learning techniques for rare event detection and prediction. To address the data scarcity, we use time series data augmentation and sampling methods to amplify the dataset with more multivariate features and data points while preserving the underlying time series patterns in the combined alterations. Imputation techniques are used in handling null values in datasets. Considering 15 learning models ranging from statistical learning to machine learning to deep learning methods, the best-performing model for the selected datasets is obtained and the efficacy of data enrichment is evaluated. Based on this evaluation, our results find that the enrichment procedure enhances up to 48% of F1 measure in rare failure event detection and prediction of supervised prediction models. We also conduct empirical and ablation experiments on the datasets to derive dataset-specific novel insights. Finally, we investigate the interpretability aspect of models for rare event prediction, considering multiple methods.

The dispatch optimization of coal mine integrated energy system is challenging due to high dimensionality, strong coupling constraints, and multiobjective. Existing constrained multiobjective evolutionary algorithms struggle with locating multiple small and irregular feasible regions, making them inaplicable to this problem. To address this issue, we here develop a multitask evolutionary algorithm framework that incorporates the dispatch correlated domain knowledge to effectively deal with strong constraints and multiobjective optimization. Possible evolutionary multitask construction strategy based on complex constraint relationship analysis and handling, i.e., constraint coupled spatial decomposition, constraint strength classification and constraint handling technique, is first explored. Within the multitask evolutionary optimization framework, two strategies, i.e., an elite guided knowledge transfer by designing a special crowding distance mechanism to select dominant individuals from each task, and an adaptive neighborhood technology based mutation to effectively balance the diversity and convergence of each optimized task for the differential evolution algorithm, are further developed. The performance of the proposed algorithm in feasibility, convergence, and diversity is demonstrated in a case study of a coal mine integrated energy system by comparing with CPLEX solver and seven constrained multiobjective evolutionary algorithms.

Poor bucking decisions made by forest harvesters can have a negative effect on the products that are generated from the logs. Making the right bucking decisions is not an easy task because harvesters must rely on predictions of the stem profile for the part of the stems that is not yet measured. The goal of this project is to improve the bucking decisions made by forest harvesters with a stochastic bucking method. We developed a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network that predicted the parameters of a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the known part of the stem, enabling the creation of multiple samples of stem profile predictions for the unknown part of the stem. The bucking decisions could then be optimized using a novel stochastic bucking algorithm which used all the stem profiles generated to choose the logs to generate from the stem. The stochastic bucking algorithm was compared to two benchmark models: A polynomial model that could not condition its predictions on more than one diameter measurement, and a deterministic LSTM neural network. All models were evaluated on stem profiles of four coniferous species prevalent in eastern Canada. In general, the best bucking decisions were taken by the stochastic LSTM models, demonstrating the usefulness of the method. The second-best results were mostly obtained by the deterministic LSTM model and the worst results by the polynomial model, corroborating the usefulness of conditioning the stem curve predictions on multiple measurements.

As AI companies work furiously to improve the intelligence and usefulness of their products, their demand for cheap, plentiful energy has skyrocketed. This gold rush has been extremely profitable for an unlikely beneficiary: Bitcoin miners. In recent months, major Bitcoin mining companies have started to swap out some of their mining equipment in favor of rigs used to run and train AI systems. These companies believe that AI training could provide a safer and more consistent source of revenue than the volatile crypto industry. And so far, these pivots have been warmly received by investors, leading to the market cap of 14 major bitcoin mining companies jumping in value by 22%, or 4 billion, since the beginning of June, J.P. Morgan reported on June 24. This transition reflects several trends of the moment: the roaring hype cycle of AI; the dwindling access to power, and a tenuous bitcoin mining landscape following the bitcoin halving.

Unlike reinforcement learning (RL) agents, humans remain capable multitaskers in changing environments. In spite of only experiencing the world through their own observations and interactions, people know how to balance focusing on tasks with learning about how changes may affect their understanding of the world. This is possible by choosing to solve tasks in ways that are interesting and generally informative beyond just the current task. Motivated by this, we propose an agent influence framework for RL agents to improve the adaptation efficiency of external models in changing environments without any changes to the agent's rewards. Our formulation is composed of two self-contained modules: interest fields and behavior shaping via interest fields. We implement an uncertainty-based interest field algorithm as well as a skill-sampling-based behavior-shaping algorithm to use in testing this framework. Our results show that our method outperforms the baselines in terms of external model adaptation on metrics that measure both efficiency and performance.

External influences such as traffic and environmental factors induce vibrations in structures, leading to material degradation over time. These vibrations result in cracks due to the material's lack of plasticity compromising structural integrity. Detecting such damage requires the installation of vibration sensors to capture the internal dynamics. However, distinguishing relevant eigenmodes from external noise necessitates the use of Deep Learning models. The detection of changes in eigenmodes can be used to anticipate these shifts in material properties and to discern between normal and anomalous structural behavior. Eigenmodes, representing characteristic vibration patterns, provide insights into structural dynamics and deviations from expected states. Thus, we propose ModeConv to automatically capture and analyze changes in eigenmodes, facilitating effective anomaly detection in structures and material properties. In the conducted experiments, ModeConv demonstrates computational efficiency improvements, resulting in reduced runtime for model calculations. The novel ModeConv neural network layer is tailored for temporal graph neural networks, in which every node represents one sensor. ModeConv employs a singular value decomposition based convolutional filter design for complex numbers and leverages modal transformation in lieu of Fourier or Laplace transformations in spectral graph convolutions. We include a mathematical complexity analysis illustrating the runtime reduction.

A massive sinkhole opened up at a soccer field in Alton, Illinois, on Wednesday. A 100-foot-wide sinkhole opened beneath a soccer field in Illinois on Wednesday as a result of a collapse at a nearby underground mine, officials said. The sinkhole formed at around 10 a.m. at Gordon Moore Park in Alton. Surveillance video from the City of Alton shows the moment the sinkhole opens and swallows a light pole on the field in a cloud of dust. Drone video shows the aftermath of the crater in the center of the field.

We present OmniJARVIS, a novel Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model for open-world instruction-following agents in open-world Minecraft. Compared to prior works that either emit textual goals to separate controllers or produce the control command directly, OmniJARVIS seeks a different path to ensure both strong reasoning and efficient decision-making capabilities via unified tokenization of multimodal interaction data. First, we introduce a self-supervised approach to learn a behavior encoder that produces discretized tokens for behavior trajectories $\tau$ = {$o_0$, $a_0$, $\dots$} and an imitation learning (IL) policy decoder conditioned on these tokens. These additional behavior tokens will be augmented to the vocabulary of pretrained Multimodal Language Models (MLMs). With this encoder, we then pack long-term multimodal interactions involving task instructions, memories, thoughts, observations, textual responses, behavior trajectories, etc. into unified token sequences and model them with autoregressive transformers. Thanks to the semantically meaningful behavior tokens, the resulting VLA model, OmniJARVIS, can reason (by producing chain-of-thoughts), plan, answer questions, and act (by producing behavior tokens for the IL policy decoder). OmniJARVIS demonstrates excellent performances on a comprehensive collection of atomic, programmatic, and open-ended tasks in open-world Minecraft. Our analysis further unveils the crucial design principles in interaction data formation, unified tokenization, and its scaling potentials.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) with their strong task-handling capabilities have shown remarkable advancements across a spectrum of fields, moving beyond natural language understanding. However, their proficiency within the chemistry domain remains restricted, especially in solving professional molecule-related tasks. This challenge is attributed to their inherent limitations in comprehending molecules using only common textual representations, i.e., SMILES strings. In this study, we seek to enhance the ability of LLMs to comprehend molecules by designing and equipping them with a multi-modal external module, namely MolX. In particular, instead of directly using a SMILES string to represent a molecule, we utilize specific encoders to extract fine-grained features from both SMILES string and 2D molecular graph representations for feeding into an LLM. Moreover, a human-defined molecular fingerprint is incorporated to leverage its embedded domain knowledge. Then, to establish an alignment between MolX and the LLM's textual input space, the whole model in which the LLM is frozen, is pre-trained with a versatile strategy including a diverse set of tasks. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that our proposed method only introduces a small number of trainable parameters while outperforming baselines on various downstream molecule-related tasks ranging from molecule-to-text translation to retrosynthesis, with and without fine-tuning the LLM.

Determining the chronology of ancient handwritten manuscripts is essential for reconstructing the evolution of ideas. For the Dead Sea Scrolls, this is particularly important. However, there is an almost complete lack of date-bearing manuscripts evenly distributed across the timeline and written in similar scripts available for palaeographic comparison. Here, we present Enoch, a state-of-the-art AI-based date-prediction model, trained on the basis of new radiocarbon-dated samples of the scrolls. Enoch uses established handwriting-style descriptors and applies Bayesian ridge regression. The challenge of this study is that the number of radiocarbon-dated manuscripts is small, while current machine learning requires an abundance of training data. We show that by using combined angular and allographic writing style feature vectors and applying Bayesian ridge regression, Enoch could predict the radiocarbon-based dates from style, supported by leave-one-out validation, with varied MAEs of 27.9 to 30.7 years relative to the radiocarbon dating. Enoch was then used to estimate the dates of 135 unseen manuscripts, revealing that 79 per cent of the samples were considered 'realistic' upon palaeographic post-hoc evaluation. We present a new chronology of the scrolls. The radiocarbon ranges and Enoch's style-based predictions are often older than the traditionally assumed palaeographic estimates. In the range of 300-50 BCE, Enoch's date prediction provides an improved granularity. The study is in line with current developments in multimodal machine-learning techniques, and the methods can be used for date prediction in other partially-dated manuscript collections. This research shows how Enoch's quantitative, probability-based approach can be a tool for palaeographers and historians, re-dating ancient Jewish key texts and contributing to current debates on Jewish and Christian origins.