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Forests for Differences: Robust Causal Inference Beyond Parametric DiD

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces the Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF), a novel non-parametric model addressing key challenges in DiD estimation, such as staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. DiD-BCF provides a unified framework for estimating Average (ATE), Group-Average (GATE), and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). A core innovation, its Parallel Trends Assumption (PTA)-based reparameterization, enhances estimation accuracy and stability in complex panel data settings. Extensive simulations demonstrate DiD-BCF's superior performance over established benchmarks, particularly under non-linearity, selection biases, and effect heterogeneity. Applied to U.S. minimum wage policy, the model uncovers significant conditional treatment effect heterogeneity related to county population, insights obscured by traditional methods. DiD-BCF offers a robust and versatile tool for more nuanced causal inference in modern DiD applications.


A Certified Unlearning Approach without Access to Source Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With the growing adoption of data privacy regulations, the ability to erase private or copyrighted information from trained models has become a crucial requirement. Traditional unlearning methods often assume access to the complete training dataset, which is unrealistic in scenarios where the source data is no longer available. To address this challenge, we propose a certified unlearning framework that enables effective data removal \final{without access to the original training data samples}. Our approach utilizes a surrogate dataset that approximates the statistical properties of the source data, allowing for controlled noise scaling based on the statistical distance between the two. \updated{While our theoretical guarantees assume knowledge of the exact statistical distance, practical implementations typically approximate this distance, resulting in potentially weaker but still meaningful privacy guarantees.} This ensures strong guarantees on the model's behavior post-unlearning while maintaining its overall utility. We establish theoretical bounds, introduce practical noise calibration techniques, and validate our method through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our approach in privacy-sensitive settings.


Well Begun is Half Done: Low-resource Preference Alignment by Weak-to-Strong Decoding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) require alignment with human preferences to avoid generating offensive, false, or meaningless content. Recently, low-resource methods for LLM alignment have been popular, while still facing challenges in obtaining both high-quality and aligned content. Motivated by the observation that the difficulty of generating aligned responses is concentrated at the beginning of decoding, we propose a novel framework, Weak-to-Strong Decoding (WSD), to enhance the alignment ability of base models by the guidance of a small aligned model. The small model first drafts well-aligned beginnings, followed by the large base model to continue the rest, controlled by a well-designed auto-switch mechanism. We also collect a new dataset, GenerAlign, to fine-tune a small-sized Pilot-3B as the draft model, which effectively enhances different base models under the WSD framework to outperform all baseline methods, while avoiding degradation on downstream tasks, termed as the alignment tax. Extensive experiments are further conducted to examine the impact of different settings and time efficiency, as well as analyses on the intrinsic mechanisms of WSD in depth.


Diffusion of Responsibility in Collective Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The term "diffusion of responsibility'' refers to situations in which multiple agents share responsibility for an outcome, obscuring individual accountability. This paper examines this frequently undesirable phenomenon in the context of collective decision-making mechanisms. The work shows that if a decision is made by two agents, then the only way to avoid diffusion of responsibility is for one agent to act as a "dictator'', making the decision unilaterally. In scenarios with more than two agents, any diffusion-free mechanism is an "elected dictatorship'' where the agents elect a single agent to make a unilateral decision. The technical results are obtained by defining a bisimulation of decision-making mechanisms, proving that bisimulation preserves responsibility-related properties, and establishing the results for a smallest bisimular mechanism.


GaRAGe: A Benchmark with Grounding Annotations for RAG Evaluation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present GaRAGe, a large RAG benchmark with human-curated long-form answers and annotations of each grounding passage, allowing a fine-grained evaluation of whether LLMs can identify relevant grounding when generating RAG answers. Our benchmark contains 2366 questions of diverse complexity, dynamism, and topics, and includes over 35K annotated passages retrieved from both private document sets and the Web, to reflect real-world RAG use cases. This makes it an ideal test bed to evaluate an LLM's ability to identify only the relevant information necessary to compose a response, or provide a deflective response when there is insufficient information. Evaluations of multiple state-of-the-art LLMs on GaRAGe show that the models tend to over-summarise rather than (a) ground their answers strictly on the annotated relevant passages (reaching at most a Relevance-Aware Factuality Score of 60%), or (b) deflect when no relevant grounding is available (reaching at most 31% true positive rate in deflections). The F1 in attribution to relevant sources is at most 58.9%, and we show that performance is particularly reduced when answering time-sensitive questions and when having to draw knowledge from sparser private grounding sources.


FuXi-Air: Urban Air Quality Forecasting Based on Emission-Meteorology-Pollutant multimodal Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Air pollution has emerged as a major public health challenge in megacities. Numerical simulations and single-site machine learning approaches have been widely applied in air quality forecasting tasks. However, these methods face multiple limitations, including high computational costs, low operational efficiency, and limited integration with observational data. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, there is an urgent need to develop a low-cost, efficient air quality forecasting model for smart urban management. An air quality forecasting model, named FuXi-Air, has been constructed in this study based on multimodal data fusion to support high-precision air quality forecasting and operated in typical megacities. The model integrates meteorological forecasts, emission inventories, and pollutant monitoring data under the guidance of air pollution mechanism. By combining an autoregressive prediction framework with a frame interpolation strategy, the model successfully completes 72-hour forecasts for six major air pollutants at an hourly resolution across multiple monitoring sites within 25-30 seconds. In terms of both computational efficiency and forecasting accuracy, it outperforms the mainstream numerical air quality models in operational forecasting work. Ablation experiments concerning key influencing factors show that although meteorological data contribute more to model accuracy than emission inventories do, the integration of multimodal data significantly improves forecasting precision and ensures that reliable predictions are obtained under differing pollution mechanisms across megacities. This study provides both a technical reference and a practical example for applying multimodal data-driven models to air quality forecasting and offers new insights into building hybrid forecasting systems to support air pollution risk warning in smart city management.


LegalReasoner: Step-wised Verification-Correction for Legal Judgment Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Legal judgment prediction (LJP) aims to function as a judge by making final rulings based on case claims and facts, which plays a vital role in the judicial domain for supporting court decision-making and improving judicial efficiency. However, existing methods often struggle with logical errors when conducting complex legal reasoning. We propose LegalReasoner, which enhances LJP reliability through step-wise verification and correction of the reasoning process. Specifically, it first identifies dispute points to decompose complex cases, and then conducts step-wise reasoning while employing a process verifier to validate each step's logic from correctness, progressiveness, and potential perspectives. When errors are detected, expert-designed attribution and resolution strategies are applied for correction. To fine-tune LegalReasoner, we release the LegalHK dataset, containing 58,130 Hong Kong court cases with detailed annotations of dispute points, step-by-step reasoning chains, and process verification labels. Experiments demonstrate that LegalReasoner significantly improves concordance with court decisions from 72.37 to 80.27 on LLAMA-3.1-70B. The data is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/weijiezz/LegalHK.


Secondary Stakeholders in AI: Fighting for, Brokering, and Navigating Agency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI technologies become more human-facing, there have been numerous calls to adapt participatory approaches to AI development -- spurring the idea of participatory AI. However, these calls often focus only on primary stakeholders, such as end-users, and not secondary stakeholders. This paper seeks to translate the ideals of participatory AI to a broader population of secondary AI stakeholders through semi-structured interviews. We theorize that meaningful participation involves three participatory ideals: (1) informedness, (2) consent, and (3) agency. We also explore how secondary stakeholders realize these ideals by traversing a complicated problem space. Like walking up the rungs of a ladder, these ideals build on one another. We introduce three stakeholder archetypes: the reluctant data contributor, the unsupported activist, and the well-intentioned practitioner, who must navigate systemic barriers to achieving agentic AI relationships. We envision an AI future where secondary stakeholders are able to meaningfully participate with the AI systems they influence and are influenced by.


Quality-Diversity Red-Teaming: Automated Generation of High-Quality and Diverse Attackers for Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring safety of large language models (LLMs) is important. Red teaming--a systematic approach to identifying adversarial prompts that elicit harmful responses from target LLMs--has emerged as a crucial safety evaluation method. Within this framework, the diversity of adversarial prompts is essential for comprehensive safety assessments. We find that previous approaches to red-teaming may suffer from two key limitations. First, they often pursue diversity through simplistic metrics like word frequency or sentence embedding similarity, which may not capture meaningful variation in attack strategies. Second, the common practice of training a single attacker model restricts coverage across potential attack styles and risk categories. This paper introduces Quality-Diversity Red-Teaming (QDRT), a new framework designed to address these limitations. QDRT achieves goal-driven diversity through behavior-conditioned training and implements a behavioral replay buffer in an open-ended manner. Additionally, it trains multiple specialized attackers capable of generating high-quality attacks across diverse styles and risk categories. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that QDRT generates attacks that are both more diverse and more effective against a wide range of target LLMs, including GPT-2, Llama-3, Gemma-2, and Qwen2.5. This work advances the field of LLM safety by providing a systematic and effective approach to automated red-teaming, ultimately supporting the responsible deployment of LLMs.


FairPFN: A Tabular Foundation Model for Causal Fairness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) systems are utilized in critical sectors, such as healthcare, law enforcement, and finance. However, these systems are often trained on historical data that contains demographic biases, leading to ML decisions that perpetuate or exacerbate existing social inequalities. Causal fairness provides a transparent, human-in-the-loop framework to mitigate algorithmic discrimination, aligning closely with legal doctrines of direct and indirect discrimination. However, current causal fairness frameworks hold a key limitation in that they assume prior knowledge of the correct causal model, restricting their applicability in complex fairness scenarios where causal models are unknown or difficult to identify. To bridge this gap, we propose FairPFN, a tabular foundation model pre-trained on synthetic causal fairness data to identify and mitigate the causal effects of protected attributes in its predictions. FairPFN's key contribution is that it requires no knowledge of the causal model and still demonstrates strong performance in identifying and removing protected causal effects across a diverse set of hand-crafted and real-world scenarios relative to robust baseline methods. FairPFN paves the way for promising future research, making causal fairness more accessible to a wider variety of complex fairness problems.