Vance grounded at White House as Iran peace talks in turmoil and Trump declares: 'I expect to be bombing' New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Ark of the Covenant's final resting place pinpointed by archaeologists as fresh search begins Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, crashed car while speeding and killed four friends... then posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Jordon Hudson extends her control over Bill Belichick's empire with secret move that is set to leave his family and friends furious Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran Sydney Sweeney's role is cut from The Devil Wears Prada 2 Humiliating moment runner celebrates winning marathon... only to be pipped at the line by rival in brutal finish Patriots coach Mike Vrabel reveals'difficult conversations' with his wife as he speaks out for the first time since Dianna Russini photo scandal Nancy Mace fires back after accused sexual extorter Cory Mills tries to expel her from Congress: 'Bring it on' How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING Grieving mother says she went to LA school every day to complain daughter was being bullied... then tragedy struck when the lead tormentor, 12, hurled metal water bottle at victim's head Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger READ MORE: Conjoined twin'influencers' are revealed to be AI AI influencers are cashing in on Coachella, with some set to make tens of thousands from their content. Among the celebrities and content creators, you may have noticed a surge in festival content from digital influencers.

Insiders claim failed AI rollout could be to blame for Tim Cook's departure from Apple - as one says'the AI era requires a different kind of leadership' Australia has spoken: Report reveals what everyone is thinking about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle's Australia tour US troops board second tanker as Trump accuses Iran of violating ceasefire'numerous times' - Live updates New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Papa John's under fire for an outrageous message now printed on all pizza boxes Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, killed four friends in high-speed crash... then she posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a PT but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. New Jersey man's chilling'cancer map' fuels fears of poisoned neighborhood with 41 cases and counting Supreme Court secrets spill out: Insider names'hard a**' Justice who is'emotionally abusive' and leaves clerks with'fear in their eyes' AMANDA PLATELL: Why desperate Fergie's next move will be her biggest bombshell yet... and this is the only thing that can stop her I was losing hair so fast a bald spot the size of an orange appeared. I owe my life to a $1 at-home treatment that REVERSED the damage in a month. Even Cameron Diaz admits she's a dirty mess.

Ritzy Bay Area town torn apart after teacher's daughter, 16, was behind wheel when four friends died in high-speed crash... then she posted a TikTok video that poured fuel on the flames Two CIA officers killed in Mexico when their car skidded off ravine and exploded after meeting about bust of'largest ever drug lab' Nancy Guthrie sheriff's appalling past revealed: Beat handcuffed suspect so badly he needed intensive care, used VILE language about woman and lied in sworn statement Trump confronts Xi as US forces seize Chinese ship carrying mysterious'gift' to Iran New'Hollywood dose' pill: A-listers hooked on'youth elixir' that dermatologists say is anti-ageing, shrinks pores, smooths wrinkles... and even banishes rosacea Days after we got engaged, the love of my life told me he'd killed a man and buried him in a bog. I reported him to police... but then I made this irreversible mistake Ark of the Covenant's final resting place pinpointed by archaeologists as fresh search begins Fury as murderer marries pen pal behind bars... as teenage victim's mom says: 'I'm serving a life sentence without my son' Insiders claim failed AI rollout could be to blame for Tim Cook's departure from Apple - as one says'the AI era requires a different kind of leadership' Life-threatening cantaloupe recall in four states upgraded to FDA's highest risk level... 'reasonable probability of death' AMANDA PLATELL: Why Sarah Ferguson - with the ghost of Princess Diana at her side - is ready to sensationally blow up the Royal Family. She knows ALL their secrets... Team USA Olympics star Noah Lyles slammed for'horrible' reaction to his wife's wedding dress reveal In honour of the Queen's (purple!) reign: Kate mirrors late monarch's colourful wardrobe and wears her pearl earrings and necklace US troops board second tanker as Iran is accused of breaking ceasefire'numerous times' How to lose weight when perimenopause sabotages your metabolism: I'm a trainer but when I hit 46, I piled on the pounds overnight. The new'posh' drug that's easier to order than Uber Eats - and why all my middle-class friends have ditched booze and cocaine for it: JANA HOCKING Autistic woman, 24, worked hard to build independent life for herself... now she's PARALYZED thanks to selfishness of stranger The video game where you play as JESUS: Open-world simulator lets you'follow the path' of the Messiah as he is baptized, perform miracles, fights the Devil and gets CRUCIFIED READ MORE: Rare marble artefact discovered in the'cradle of Christianity' While fans eagerly await the release of Grand Theft Auto 6, one Polish game studio has unveiled a rather unorthodox alternative. The video game, titled'I Am Jesus Christ' allows players to'walk in the footsteps of Jesus' in an immersive first-person retelling of the gospel.

He told Mission Control that they saw'an island of terrain completely surrounded by darkness.' 'Up to the north, there is a very nice double crater. It looks like a snowman just sitting there,' he continued. 'On the southern edge, there is a hole.

Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate the causal effect of treatments that are assigned based on a running variable crossing a threshold. Such threshold-based rules are ubiquitous in healthcare, where predictive and prognostic biomarkers frequently guide treatment decisions. However, standard RD estimators rely on complete outcome data, an assumption often violated in time-to-event analyses where censoring arises from loss to follow-up. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric approach that leverages doubly robust censoring corrections and can be paired with existing RD estimators. Our approach can handle multiple survival endpoints, long follow-up times, and covariate-dependent variation in survival and censoring. We discuss the relevance of our approach across multiple areas of applications and demonstrate its usefulness through simulations and the prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial where our new approach offers several advantages, including higher efficiency and robustness to misspecification. We have also developed an open-source software package, $\texttt{rdsurvival}$, for the $\texttt{R}$ language.

We study high-dimensional mediation analysis in which exposures, mediators, and outcomes are all multivariate, and both exposures and mediators may be high-dimensional. We formalize this as a many (exposures)-to-many (mediators)-to-many (outcomes) (MMM) mediation analysis problem. Methodologically, MMM mediation analysis simultaneously performs variable selection for high-dimensional exposures and mediators, estimates the indirect effect matrix (i.e., the coefficient matrices linking exposure-to-mediator and mediator-to-outcome pathways), and enables prediction of multivariate outcomes. Theoretically, we show that the estimated indirect effect matrices are consistent and element-wise asymptotically normal, and we derive error bounds for the estimators. To evaluate the efficacy of the MMM mediation framework, we first investigate its finite-sample performance, including convergence properties, the behavior of the asymptotic approximations, and robustness to noise, via simulation studies. We then apply MMM mediation analysis to data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative to study how cortical thickness of 202 brain regions may mediate the effects of 688 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (selected from approximately 1.5 million SNPs) on eleven cognitive-behavioral and diagnostic outcomes. The MMM mediation framework identifies biologically interpretable, many-to-many-to-many genetic-neural-cognitive pathways and improves downstream out-of-sample classification and prediction performance. Taken together, our results demonstrate the potential of MMM mediation analysis and highlight the value of statistical methodology for investigating complex, high-dimensional multi-layer pathways in science. The MMM package is available at https://github.com/THELabTop/MMM-Mediation.

Cross-validation (CV) is commonly used to estimate predictive risk when independent test data are unavailable. Its validity depends on the assumption that validation tasks are sampled from the same distribution as prediction tasks encountered during deployment. In spatial prediction and other settings with structured data, this assumption is frequently violated, leading to biased estimates of deployment risk. We propose Target-Weighted CV (TWCV), an estimator of deployment risk that accounts for discrepancies between validation and deployment task distributions, thus accounting for (1) covariate shift and (2) task-difficulty shift. We characterize prediction tasks by descriptors such as covariates and spatial configuration. TWCV assigns weights to validation losses such that the weighted empirical distribution of validation tasks matches the corresponding distribution over a target domain. The weights are obtained via calibration weighting, yielding an importance-weighted estimator that targets deployment risk. Since TWCV requires adequate coverage of the deployment distribution's support, we combine it with spatially buffered resampling that diversifies the task difficulty distribution. In a simulation study, conventional as well as spatial estimators exhibit substantial bias depending on sampling, whereas buffered TWCV remains approximately unbiased across scenarios. A case study in environmental pollution mapping further confirms that discrepancies between validation and deployment task distributions can affect performance assessment, and that buffered TWCV better reflects the prediction task over the target domain. These results establish task distribution mismatch as a primary source of CV bias in spatial prediction and show that calibration weighting combined with a suitable validation task generator provides a viable approach to estimating predictive risk under dataset shift.

Aligning human-interpretable concepts with the internal representations learned by modern machine learning systems remains a central challenge for interpretable AI. We introduce a geometric framework for comparing supervised human concepts with unsupervised intermediate representations extracted from foundation model embeddings. Motivated by the role of conceptual leaps in scientific discovery, we formalise the notion of concept frustration: a contradiction that arises when an unobserved concept induces relationships between known concepts that cannot be made consistent within an existing ontology. We develop task-aligned similarity measures that detect concept frustration between supervised concept-based models and unsupervised representations derived from foundation models, and show that the phenomenon is detectable in task-aligned geometry while conventional Euclidean comparisons fail. Under a linear-Gaussian generative model we derive a closed-form expression for Bayes-optimal concept-based classifier accuracy, decomposing predictive signal into known-known, known-unknown and unknown-unknown contributions and identifying analytically where frustration affects performance. Experiments on synthetic data and real language and vision tasks demonstrate that frustration can be detected in foundation model representations and that incorporating a frustrating concept into an interpretable model reorganises the geometry of learned concept representations, to better align human and machine reasoning. These results suggest a principled framework for diagnosing incomplete concept ontologies and aligning human and machine conceptual reasoning, with implications for the development and validation of safe interpretable AI for high-risk applications.

Optimizing survival outcomes, such as patient survival or customer retention, is a critical objective in data-driven decision-making. Off-Policy Evaluation~(OPE) provides a powerful framework for assessing such decision-making policies using logged data alone, without the need for costly or risky online experiments in high-stakes applications. However, typical estimators are not designed to handle right-censored survival outcomes, as they ignore unobserved survival times beyond the censoring time, leading to systematic underestimation of the true policy performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework for OPE and Off-Policy Learning~(OPL) tailored for survival outcomes under censoring. Specifically, we introduce IPCW-IPS and IPCW-DR, which employ the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting technique to explicitly deal with censoring bias. We theoretically establish that our estimators are unbiased and that IPCW-DR achieves double robustness, ensuring consistency if either the propensity score or the outcome model is correct. Furthermore, we extend this framework to constrained OPL to optimize policy value under budget constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate their practical impacts using public real-world data for both evaluation and learning tasks.

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear. Standard instrumental variables (IV) estimators, such as two-stage least squares (2SLS), become unreliable when instrument validity requires flexibly conditioning on many covariates with potentially non-linear effects. This paper develops a Double Machine Learning estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML), and introduces weak-identification diagnostics for it. We revisit three influential migration studies that use shift-share instruments. In these settings, instrument validity depends on a rich covariate adjustment. In one application, panel IV DML strengthens the predictive power of the instrument and broadly confirms 2SLS results. In the other cases, flexible adjustment makes the instruments weak, leading to substantially more cautious causal inference than conventional 2SLS. Monte Carlo evidence supports these findings, showing that panel IV DML improves estimation accuracy under strong instruments and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.