Activity planning for missions such as the Mars Exploration Rover mission presents many technical challenges, including oversubscription, consideration of time, concurrency, resources, preferences, and uncertainty. These challenges have all been addressed by the research community to varying degrees, but significant technical hurdles still remain. In addition, the integration of these capabilities into a single planning engine remains largely unaddressed. However, I argue that there is a deeper set of issues that needs to be considered -- namely the integration of planning into an iterative process that begins before the goals, objectives, and preferences are fully defined. This introduces a number of technical challenges for planning, including the ability to more naturally specify and utilize constraints on the planning process, the ability to generate multiple qualitatively different plans, and the ability to provide deep explanation of plans.

Building upon previous security applications of computational game theory, this paper presents PROTECT, a game-theoretic system deployed by the United States Coast Guard (USCG) in the port of Boston for scheduling their patrols. USCG has termed the deployment of PROTECT in Boston a success, and efforts are underway to test it in the port of New York, with the potential for nationwide deployment. PROTECT is premised on an attacker-defender Stackelberg game model and offers five key innovations. First, this system is a departure from the assumption of perfect adversary rationality noted in previous work, relying instead on a quantal response (QR) model of the adversary's behavior - to the best of our knowledge, this is the first real-world deployment of the QR model. Second, to improve PROTECT's efficiency, we generate a compact representation of the defender's strategy space, exploiting equivalence and dominance. Third, we show how to practically model a real maritime patrolling problem as a Stackelberg game. Fourth, our experimental results illustrate that PROTECT's QR model more robustly handles real-world uncertainties than a perfect rationality model. Finally, in evaluating PROTECT, this paper provides real-world data: (i) comparison of human-generated vs PROTECT security schedules, and (ii) results from an Adversarial Perspective Team's (human mock attackers) analysis.

As the semantic web expands, ontological data becomes distributed over a large network of data sources on the Web. Consequently, evaluating queries that aim to tap into this distributed semantic database necessitates the ability to consult multiple data sources efficiently. In this paper, we propose methods and heuristics to efficiently query distributed ontological data based on a series of properties of summarized data. In our approach, each source summarizes its data as another RDF graph, and relevant section of these summaries are merged and analyzed at query evaluation time. We show how the analysis of these summaries enables more efficient source selection, query pruning and transformation of expensive distributed joins into local joins.

Successive elimination of candidates is often a route to making manipulation intractable to compute. We prove that eliminating candidates does not necessarily increase the computational complexity of manipulation. However, for many voting rules used in practice, the computational complexity increases. For example, it is already known that it is NP-hard to compute how a single voter can manipulate the result of single transferable voting (the elimination version of plurality voting). We show here that it is NP-hard to compute how a single voter can manipulate the result of the elimination version of veto voting, of the closely related Coombs’ rule, and of the elimination versions of a general class of scoring rules.

Many signals of interest are corrupted by faults of anunknown type. We propose an approach that uses Gaus-sian processes and a general “fault bucket” to capturea priori uncharacterised faults, along with an approxi-mate method for marginalising the potential faultinessof all observations. This gives rise to an efficient, flexible algorithm for the detection and automatic correction of faults. Our method is deployed in the domain of water monitoring and management, where it is able to solve several fault detection, correction, and prediction problems. The method works well despite the fact that the data is plagued with numerous difficulties, including missing observations, multiple discontinuities, nonlinearity and many unanticipated types of fault.

A key problem in climate science is how to combine the predictions of the multi-model ensemble of global climate models. Recent work in machine learning (Monteleoni et al. 2011) showed the promise of an algorithm for online learning with experts for this task.We extend the Tracking Climate Models (TCM) approach to (1) take into account climate model predictions at higher spatial resolutions and (2) to model geospatial neighborhood influence between regions. Our algorithm enables neighborhood influence by modifying the transition dynamics of the Hidden Markov Model used by TCM, allowing the performance of spatial neighbors to influence the temporal switching probabilities for the best expert (climate model) at a given location. In experiments on historical data at a variety of spatial resolutions, our algorithm demonstrates improvements over TCM, when tracking global temperature anomalies.

To ensure quality results from unreliable crowdsourced workers, task designers often construct complex workflows and aggregate worker responses from redundant runs. Frequently, they experiment with several alternative workflows to accomplish the task, and eventually deploy the one that achieves the best performance during early trials. Surprisingly, this seemingly natural design paradigm does not achieve the full potential of crowdsourcing. In particular, using a single workflow (even the best) to accomplish a task is suboptimal. We show that alternative workflows can compose synergistically to yield much higher quality output. We formalize the insight with a novel probabilistic graphical model. Based on this model, we design and implement AGENTHUNT, a POMDP-based controller that dynamically switches between these workflows to achieve higher returns on investment. Additionally, we design offline and online methods for learning model parameters. Live experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk demonstrate the superiority of AGENTHUNT for the task of generating NLP training data, yielding up to 50% error reduction and greater net utility compared to previous methods.

Stackelberg games increasingly influence security policies deployed in real-world settings. Much of the work to date focuses on devising a fixed randomized strategy for the defender, accounting for an attacker who optimally responds to it. In practice, defense policies are often subject to constraints and vary over time, allowing an attacker to infer characteristics of future policies based on current observations. A defender must therefore account for an attacker's observation capabilities in devising a security policy. We show that this general modeling framework can be captured using stochastic Stackelberg games (SSGs), where a defender commits to a dynamic policy to which the attacker devises an optimal dynamic response. We then offer the following contributions. 1) We show that Markov stationary policies suffice in SSGs, 2) present a finite-time mixed-integer non-linear program for computing a Stackelberg equilibrium in SSGs, and 3) present a mixed-integer linear program to approximate it. 4) We illustrate our algorithms on a simple SSG representing an adversarial patrolling scenario, where we study the impact of attacker patience and risk aversion on optimal defense policies.

Event extraction systems typically locate the role fillers for an event by analyzing sentences in isolation and identifying each role filler independently of the others. We argue that more accurate event extraction requires a view of the larger context to decide whether an entity is related to a relevant event. We propose a bottom-up approach to event extraction that initially identifies candidate role fillers independently and then uses that information as well as discourse properties to model textual cohesion. The novel component of the architecture is a sequentially structured sentence classifier that identifies event-related story contexts. The sentence classifier uses lexical associations and discourse relations across sentences, as well as domain-specific distributions of candidate role fillers within and across sentences. This approach yields state-of-the-art performance on the MUC-4 data set, achieving substantially higher precision than previous systems.

This study considers the problem of feature selection in incomplete data. The intuitive approach is to first impute the missing values, and then apply a standard feature selection method to select relevant features. In this study, we show how to perform feature selection directly, without imputing missing values. We define the objective function of the uncertainty margin-based feature selection method to maximize each instance’s uncertainty margin in its own relevant subspace. In optimization, we take into account the uncertainty of each instance due to the missing values. The experimental results on synthetic and 6 benchmark data sets with few missing values (less than 25%) provide evidence that our method can select the same accurate features as the alternative methods which apply an imputation method first. However, when there is a large fraction of missing values (more than 25%) in data, our feature selection method outperforms the alternatives, which impute missing values first.