We are interested in aggregating forecasts of multinomial problems elicited from multiple experts. A common approach is to assign a weight to each expert, then form a weighted sum over their forecasts. Theoretical studies suggest that an important factor in such weighting is the diversity among experts. However, diversity is intrinsically a pairwise measure over experts, and does not lend itself naturally to a single weight that can be applied to an expert’s forecast in a weighted average. We suggest a way to take advantage of such pairwise measures in aggregating forecasts.

Many strategic actions carry a "contagious" component beyond the immediate locale of the effort itself. Viral marketing and peacekeeping operations have both been observed to have a spreading effect. In this work, we use counterinsurgency as our illustrative domain. Defined as the effort to block the spread of support for an insurgency, such operations lack the manpower to defend the entire population and must focus on the opinions of a subset of local leaders. As past researchers of security resource allocation have done, we propose using game theory to develop such policies and model the interconnected network of leaders as a graph. Unlike this past work in security games, actions in these domains possess a probabilistic, non-local impact. To address this new class of security games, recent research has used novel heuristic oracles in a double oracle formulation to generate mixed strategies. However, these heuristic oracles were evaluated only on runtime and quality scaling with the graphsize. Given the complexity of the problem, numerous other problem features and metrics must be considered to better inform practical application of such techniques. Thus, this work provides a thorough experimental analysis including variations of the contagion probability average and standard deviation. We extend the previous analysis to also examine the size of the action set constructed in the algorithms and the final mixed strategies themselves. Our results indicate that game instances featuring smaller graphs and low contagion probabilities converge slowly while games with larger graphs and medium contagion probabilities converge most quickly.

Human control of vehicle swarms faces a dilemma: an operator must be able to exercise precise control over how a mission is executed, but controlling individual vehicles is not scalable. The Proto spatial computing lan- guage offers an intermediate representation, where the motion of a swarm is specified as a vector field, which is then approximated by the movement of individual members (Bachrach, Beal, and McLurkin 2010). I propose that this can be exploited to build a “tactical command” model of swarm control, whereby human “officers” dynamically decompose a swarm into units and task those units to carry out geometric and topological maneuvers under the constraints imposed by the platform. This abstraction may also allow situation awareness interfaces for individual agents to be extended to apply to swarm units.

List of organizers of the AAAI Fall Symposium on  Information Retrieval and Knowledge Discovery in Biomedical Text

One common use for swarming agents is in social simulation. This paper reports on such a model developed to track protest activities at the May 2012 NATO summit in Chicago. The use of apoptotic stigmergic agents allows the model to run on-line, consuming two kinds of external data and reporting its results in real time.

Network analysis is a growing field across many domains, including computer vision, social media marketing, transportation networks, and intelligence analysis. The growing use of digital communication devices and platforms, as well as persistent surveillance sensors, has resulted in explosion of the quantity of data and stretched the abilities of current technologies to process this data and draw meaningful conclusions. Current tools either require significant levels of manual intervention (e.g., to prepare the data, to define patterns, or to draw conclusions from data) or are unable to generalize to new data sources and analysis needs. In this paper, we present automated solutions to two major problems in network analysis: (a) finding patterns in the network data that contains high levels of noise and irrelevant information; and (b) learning repetitive patterns and dependencies between entities and attributes. Our modeling framework represents network data using multi-attributed graphs that can encode various discrete and continuous features and relationships between network entities. The pattern search and learning model is based on probabilistic multi-attributed graph matching, and implemented using distributed message passing algorithms. Our algorithms achieved high accuracy rates in learning and finding patterns in the data, are flexible to new domains and data types, and scale to large datasets using the Map-Reduce framework.

There is growing interest in automating the detection of interesting new developments in science and technology. BAE Systems is pursuing ARBITER (Abductive Reasoning Based on Indicators and Topics of EmeRgence), a multi-disciplinary study and development effort to analyze full- text and metadata for indicators of emergent technologies and scientific fields. To define these indicators, our team has applied the primary insights of actant network theory developed within the disciplines of Science and Technology Studies and the history of technology and science to create a pragmatic theory of technoscientific emergence. Specifically, this practical theory articulates emergence in terms of the robustness of actant networks. This applied actant-network theory currently guides our definition of indicators and indicator patterns for the ARBITER system, and represents a novel contribution to the discussion of emergent technologies and fields. Several elements of our theory were validated with 15 case studies and 25 example technologies.

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of Statistical Relational Learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine and categorize techniques for transforming graph-based relational data to improve SRL algorithms. In particular, appropriate transformations of the nodes, links, and/or features of the data can dramatically affect the capabilities and results of SRL algorithms. We introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. More specifically, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed.

Dual decomposition, and more generally Lagrangian relaxation, is a classical method for combinatorial optimization; it has recently been applied to several inference problems in natural language processing (NLP). This tutorial gives an overview of the technique. We describe example algorithms, describe formal guarantees for the method, and describe practical issues in implementing the algorithms. While our examples are predominantly drawn from the NLP literature, the material should be of general relevance to inference problems in machine learning. A central theme of this tutorial is that Lagrangian relaxation is naturally applied in conjunction with a broad class of combinatorial algorithms, allowing inference in models that go significantly beyond previous work on Lagrangian relaxation for inference in graphical models.

For a given problem, the optimal Markov policy can be considerred as a conditional or contingent plan containing a (potentially large) number of branches. Unfortunately, there are applications where it is desirable to strictly limit the number of decision points and branches in a plan. For example, it may be that plans must later undergo more detailed simulation to verify correctness and safety, or that they must be simple enough to be understood and analyzed by humans. As a result, it may be necessary to limit consideration to plans with only a small number of branches. This raises the question of how one goes about finding optimal plans containing only a limited number of branches. In this paper, we present an any-time algorithm for optimal k-contingency planning (OKP). It is the first optimal algorithm for limited contingency planning that is not an explicit enumeration of possible contingent plans. By modelling the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, it implements the Bellman optimality principle and prunes the solution space. We present experimental results of applying this algorithm to some simple test cases.