Image of an entity can be defined as a structured and dynamic representation which can be extracted from the opinions of a group of users or population. Automatic extraction of such an image has certain importance in political science and sociology related studies, e.g., when an extended inquiry from large-scale data is required. We study the images of two politically significant entities of France. These images are constructed by analyzing the opinions collected from a well known social media called Twitter. Our goal is to build a system which can be used to automatically extract the image of entities over time. In this paper, we propose a novel evolutionary clustering method based on the parametric link among Multinomial mixture models. First we propose the formulation of a generalized model that establishes parametric links among the Multinomial distributions. Afterward, we follow a model-based clustering approach to explore different parametric sub-models and select the best model. For the experiments, first we use synthetic temporal data. Next, we apply the method to analyze the annotated social media data. Results show that the proposed method is better than the state-of-the-art based on the common evaluation metrics. Additionally, our method can provide interpretation about the temporal evolution of the clusters.

An important problem of reconstruction of diffusion network and transmission probabilities from the data has attracted a considerable attention in the past several years. A number of recent papers introduced efficient algorithms for the estimation of spreading parameters, based on the maximization of the likelihood of observed cascades, assuming that the full information for all the nodes in the network is available. In this work, we focus on a more realistic and restricted scenario, in which only a partial information on the cascades is available: either the set of activation times for a limited number of nodes, or the states of nodes for a subset of observation times. To tackle this problem, we first introduce a framework based on the maximization of the likelihood of the incomplete diffusion trace. However, we argue that the computation of this incomplete likelihood is a computationally hard problem, and show that a fast and robust reconstruction of transmission probabilities in sparse networks can be achieved with a new algorithm based on recently introduced dynamic message-passing equations for the spreading processes. The suggested approach can be easily generalized to a large class of discrete and continuous dynamic models, as well as to the cases of dynamically-changing networks and noisy information.

IllinoisSL is a Java library for learning structured prediction models. It supports structured Support Vector Machines and structured Perceptron. The library consists of a core learning module and several applications, which can be executed from command-lines. Documentation is provided to guide users. In Comparison to other structured learning libraries, IllinoisSL is efficient, general, and easy to use.

Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the ability of sequential learning algorithms (SLAs) to reduce the forecast errors and reduce the uncertainties. Three different SLAs are considered, and their performances are compared with those of an equally weighted ensemble, a linear regression and the climatology. Predictions of four different variables--the surface temperature, the zonal and meridional wind, and pressure--are considered. The spatial distributions of the performances are presented, and the statistical significance of the improvements achieved by the SLAs is tested. Based on the performances of the SLAs, we propose one to be highly suitable for the improvement of decadal climate predictions.

Consider a classification problem where we do not have access to labels for individual training examples, but only have average labels over subpopulations. We give practical examples of this setup and show how such a classification task can usefully be analyzed as a weakly supervised clustering problem. We propose three approaches to solving the weakly supervised clustering problem, including a latent variables model that performs well in our experiments. We illustrate our methods on an analysis of aggregated elections data and an industry data set that was the original motivation for this research.

The group membership prediction (GMP) problem involves predicting whether or not a collection of instances share a certain semantic property. For instance, in kinship verification given a collection of images, the goal is to predict whether or not they share a {\it familial} relationship. In this context we propose a novel probability model and introduce latent {\em view-specific} and {\em view-shared} random variables to jointly account for the view-specific appearance and cross-view similarities among data instances. Our model posits that data from each view is independent conditioned on the shared variables. This postulate leads to a parametric probability model that decomposes group membership likelihood into a tensor product of data-independent parameters and data-dependent factors. We propose learning the data-independent parameters in a discriminative way with bilinear classifiers, and test our prediction algorithm on challenging visual recognition tasks such as multi-camera person re-identification and kinship verification. On most benchmark datasets, our method can significantly outperform the current state-of-the-art.

We develop a sequential low-complexity inference procedure for Dirichlet process mixtures of Gaussians for online clustering and parameter estimation when the number of clusters are unknown a-priori. We present an easily computable, closed form parametric expression for the conditional likelihood, in which hyperparameters are recursively updated as a function of the streaming data assuming conjugate priors. Motivated by large-sample asymptotics, we propose a novel adaptive low-complexity design for the Dirichlet process concentration parameter and show that the number of classes grow at most at a logarithmic rate. We further prove that in the large-sample limit, the conditional likelihood and data predictive distribution become asymptotically Gaussian. We demonstrate through experiments on synthetic and real data sets that our approach is superior to other online state-of-the-art methods.

This paper deals with the problem of nonparametric independence testing, a fundamental decision-theoretic problem that asks if two arbitrary (possibly multivariate) random variables $X,Y$ are independent or not, a question that comes up in many fields like causality and neuroscience. While quantities like correlation of $X,Y$ only test for (univariate) linear independence, natural alternatives like mutual information of $X,Y$ are hard to estimate due to a serious curse of dimensionality. A recent approach, avoiding both issues, estimates norms of an \textit{operator} in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs). Our main contribution is strong empirical evidence that by employing \textit{shrunk} operators when the sample size is small, one can attain an improvement in power at low false positive rates. We analyze the effects of Stein shrinkage on a popular test statistic called HSIC (Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion). Our observations provide insights into two recently proposed shrinkage estimators, SCOSE and FCOSE - we prove that SCOSE is (essentially) the optimal linear shrinkage method for \textit{estimating} the true operator; however, the non-linearly shrunk FCOSE usually achieves greater improvements in \textit{test power}. This work is important for more powerful nonparametric detection of subtle nonlinear dependencies for small samples.

Entity resolution (ER), an important and common data cleaning problem, is about detecting data duplicate representations for the same external entities, and merging them into single representations. Relatively recently, declarative rules called matching dependencies (MDs) have been proposed for specifying similarity conditions under which attribute values in database records are merged. In this work we show the process and the benefits of integrating three components of ER: (a) Classifiers for duplicate/non-duplicate record pairs built using machine learning (ML) techniques, (b) MDs for supporting both the blocking phase of ML and the merge itself; and (c) The use of the declarative language LogiQL -an extended form of Datalog supported by the LogicBlox platform- for data processing, and the specification and enforcement of MDs.

We study consistency properties of surrogate loss functions for general multiclass learning problems, defined by a general multiclass loss matrix. We extend the notion of classification calibration, which has been studied for binary and multiclass 0-1 classification problems (and for certain other specific learning problems), to the general multiclass setting, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a surrogate loss to be calibrated with respect to a loss matrix in this setting. We then introduce the notion of convex calibration dimension of a multiclass loss matrix, which measures the smallest `size' of a prediction space in which it is possible to design a convex surrogate that is calibrated with respect to the loss matrix. We derive both upper and lower bounds on this quantity, and use these results to analyze various loss matrices. In particular, we apply our framework to study various subset ranking losses, and use the convex calibration dimension as a tool to show both the existence and non-existence of various types of convex calibrated surrogates for these losses. Our results strengthen recent results of Duchi et al. (2010) and Calauzenes et al. (2012) on the non-existence of certain types of convex calibrated surrogates in subset ranking. We anticipate the convex calibration dimension may prove to be a useful tool in the study and design of surrogate losses for general multiclass learning problems.