We present an approach to identifying concurrent patterns of behavior in in-sample temporal factor training data that precede Events of Interest (EoIs). We also present how to use discovered patterns to forecast EoIs in out-of-sample test data. The forecasting methodology is based on matching entities' observed behaviors to patterns discovered in retrospective data. This pattern concept is a generalization of previous pattern definitions. The new pattern concept, based around patterns observed in trends of factor data is based on a finite-state model where observed, sustained trends in a factor map to pattern states. Discovered patterns can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the dynamic conditions leading up to specific Event of Interest occurrences and hint at underlying causal structures leading to onsets and terminations of socio-political violence. We present a computationally efficient data-mining method to discover trend patterns. We give an example of using our pattern forecasting methodology to correctly forecast the advent and cessation of ethnic-religious violence in nation states with a low false-alarm rate.

For many voting rules, it is NP-hard to compute a successful manipulation. However, NP-hardness only bounds the worst-case complexity. Recent theoretical results suggest that manipulation may often be easy in practice. We study empirically the cost of manipulating the single transferable vote (STV) rule. This was one of the first rules shown to be NP-hard to manipulate. It also appears to be one of the harder rules to manipulate since it involves multiple rounds and since, unlike many other rules, it is NP-hard for a single agent to manipulate without weights on the votes or uncertainty about how the other agents have voted. In almost every election in our experiments, it was easy to compute how a single agent could manipulate the election or to prove that manipulation by a single agent was impossible. It remains an interesting open question if manipulation by a coalition of agents is hard to compute in practice.

The relationship between equilibrium convergence to a uniform quality distribution and price is investigated in the Q-model, a self-organizing, evolutionary computational matching model of a fixed-price post-secondary higher education created by Ortmann and Slobodyan (2006). The Q-model is replicated with price equaling 100% its Ortmann and Slobodyan (2006) value, Varying the fixed price between 0% and 200% reveals thresholds at which the Q-model reaches different market clustering configurations. Results indicate structural market robustness to prices less than 100% and high sensitivity to prices greater than 100%.

PMRFSim is a proof of concept geospatial social agent-based simulation capable of examining the interactions of 60,000+ agents over a simulated year within a few minutes. PMRFSim utilizes real world data from sources ranging from the U.S. Census Bureau, a regional sociologist, and base security. PMRFSim models two types of agents, normal and adverse agents. Adverse agents have harmful intent and goals to spread negative sentiment and acquire intelligence. All agents are endowed with demographic and geospatial attributes. Agents interact with each other and respond to events. PMRFSim allows an analyst to construct various what-if scenarios and generates numerous graphs that characterize the social landscape. This analysis is intended to aid public affairs officers understand the social landscape.

The availability of online documents coupled with emergent text mining methods has opened new research horizons. To achieve their potential, mining technologies need to be theoretically focused. We present data theory as a crucial component of text mining, and provide a substantive proto- theory from the synthesis of complex multigames, prototype concepts, and emotio-cognitive orientation fields. We discuss how the data theory presented informs the application of text mining to mining discourse(s) and how, in turn, this allows for modeling across contextual thresholds. Finally, the relationship between discourse mining, data theory, and thresholds is illustrated with an historical example, the events surrounding the 1992 civil war in Tajikistan.

Creating new concepts from data is a hard problem in the development of cognitive architectures, but one that must be solved for the BICA community to declare success.  Two concept generation algorithms are presented here that are appropriate to different levels of concept abstraction: state-space partitioning with decision trees and context-based similarity.

The Institute of Education Sciences (IES) provides funding opportunities for researchers to bring their knowledge of learning, cognitive science, and technology to bear on education practice. This panel describes opportunities available through the National Center for Education Research and the National Center for Special Education Research.

International law is a singular exception to the top-down systems of law within nations. It presents the puzzle of how the law can be created or changed in the absence of authoritative rule-making institutions. The present paper is part of a work in progress that locates the law-making apparatus of international law in a complex adaptive system. Herein the focus is on thresholds. The first and most detailed threshold describes the emergence of the complex adaptive system. The second threshold consists of the transformation of international law from the voluntary to the automatic. The third threshold is here but has not yet been crossed: actualizing human rights as enforceable claims by individuals against States.

An understanding of the policy and resource availability constraints under which others operate is important for effectively developing and resourcing plans in a multi-agent context. Such constraints (or norms) are not necessarily public knowledge, even within a team of collaborating agents. What is required are mechanisms to enable agents to keep track of who might have and be willing to provide the resources required for enacting a plan by modeling the policies of others regarding resource use, information provision, etc. We propose a technique that combines machine learning and argumentation for identifying and modeling the policies of others. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of this novel combination of techniques through empirical evaluation.

Irregular Warfare (IW), with its emphasis on social and cognitive phenomena such as population sentiment, is a major new focus of the Department of Defense (DoD). One of the most important classes of IW action is Information Operations (IO), the use of information to influence sentiment. With the DoD’s new focus on IW comes the new need to analyze and forecast the effects of IO actions on population sentiment. Analysts at the DoD traditionally use Modeling and Simulation to analyze and forecast the effects of conventional warfare’s actions on the outcome of wars, but IW and IO in particular are far more complex than conventional physics-based simulations. DoD analysts are in the early stages of looking for scientifically rigorous methods in the Modeling and Simulation of IO’s complex effects. This paper presents the state of IO modeling and simulation in the DoD, using examples from several computer models now being used, in these early stages of IW analysis. It discusses how the ideas of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) and threshold events in particular may be incorporated into IO modeling in order to increase its scientific rigor, fidelity, and validity.