Government
First On-Orbit Demonstration of a Geospatial Foundation Model
Du, Andrew, Del Prete, Roberto, Mousist, Alejandro, Manser, Nick, Marre, Fabrice, Barton, Andrew, Seubert, Carl, Meoni, Gabriele, Chin, Tat-Jun
However, their large size poses a barrier to deployment on resource-constrained space hardware. To address this, we present compact variants of a Vision Transformer (ViT)-based GeoFM that preserve downstream task performance while enabling onboard execution. Evaluation across five downstream tasks and validation in two representative flight environments show that model compression and domain adaptation are critical to reducing size and resource demands while maintaining high performance under operational conditions. We further demonstrate reliable on-orbit inference with the IMAGIN-e payload aboard the International Space Station. These results establish a pathway from large GeoFMs to flight-ready, resource-efficient deployments, expanding the feasibility of onboard AI for EO missions.
CodeDistiller: Automatically Generating Code Libraries for Scientific Coding Agents
Jansen, Peter, Hassan, Samiah, Narasimha, Pragnya
Automated Scientific Discovery (ASD) systems can help automatically generate and run code-based experiments, but their capabilities are limited by the code they can reliably generate from parametric knowledge alone. As a result, current systems either mutate a small number of manually-crafted experiment examples, or operate solely from parametric knowledge, limiting quality and reach. We introduce CodeDistiller, a system that automatically distills large collections of scientific Github repositories into a vetted library of working domain-specific code examples, allowing ASD agents to expand their capabilities without manual effort. Using a combination of automatic and domain-expert evaluation on 250 materials science repositories, we find the best model is capable of producing functional examples for 74% of repositories, while our downstream evaluation shows an ASD agent augmented with a CodeDistiller generated library produces more accurate, complete, and scientifically sound experiments than an agent with only general materials-science code examples.
Chain of Unit-Physics: A Primitive-Centric Approach to Scientific Code Synthesis
Agentic large language models are proposed as autonomous code generators for scientific computing, yet their reliability in high-stakes problems remains unclear. Developing computational scientific software from natural-language queries remains challenging broadly due to (a) sparse representation of domain codes during training and (b) the limited feasibility of RLHF with a small expert community. To address these limitations, this work conceptualizes an inverse approach to code design, embodied in the Chain of Unit-Physics framework: a first-principles (or primitives)-centric, multi-agent system in which human expert knowledge is encoded as unit-physics tests that explicitly constrain code generation. The framework is evaluated on a nontrivial combustion task, used here as a representative benchmark for scientific problem with realistic physical constraints. Closed-weight systems and code-focused agentic variants fail to produce correct end-to-end solvers, despite tool and web access, exhibiting four recurrent error classes: interface (syntax/API) hallucinations, overconfident assumptions, numerical/physical incoherence, and configuration fragility. Open-weight models with chain-of-thought (CoT) decoding reduce interface errors but still yield incorrect solutions. On the benchmark task, the proposed framework converges within 5-6 iterations, matches the human-expert implementation (mean error of $3.1\times10^{-3}$ %), with a $\sim$33.4 % faster runtime and a $\sim$30 % efficient memory usage at a cost comparable to mid-sized commercial APIs, yielding a practical template for physics-grounded scientific code generation. As datasets and models evolve, zero-shot code accuracy will improve; however, the Chain of Unit-Physics framework goes further by embedding first-principles analysis that is foundational to scientific codes.
One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer: Understanding Semantic Structures in Embedding Spaces
Sun, Yandong, Huang, Qiang, Xu, Ziwei, Sun, Yiqun, Tang, Yixuan, Tung, Anthony K. H.
Embedding spaces are fundamental to modern AI, translating raw data into high-dimensional vectors that encode rich semantic relationships. Y et, their internal structures remain opaque, with existing approaches often sacrificing semantic coherence for structural regularity or incurring high computational overhead to improve interpretability. To address these challenges, we introduce the Semantic Field Subspace (SFS), a geometry-preserving, context-aware representation that captures local semantic neighborhoods within the embedding space. We also propose SAF ARI (SemAntic Field subspAce deteRmInation), an unsupervised, modality-agnostic algorithm that uncovers hierarchical semantic structures using a novel metric called Semantic Shift, which quantifies how semantics evolve as SFSes evolve. To ensure scalability, we develop an efficient approximation of Semantic Shift that replaces costly SVD computations, achieving a 15 30 speedup with average errors below 0.01. Extensive evaluations across six real-world text and image datasets show that SFSes outperform standard classifiers not only in classification but also in nuanced tasks such as political bias detection, while SAF ARI consistently reveals interpretable and generalizable semantic hierarchies. This work presents a unified framework for structuring, analyzing, and scaling semantic understanding in embedding spaces.
A Novel MDP Decomposition Framework for Scalable UAV Mission Planning in Complex and Uncertain Environments
Quamar, Md Muzakkir, Nasir, Ali, ELFerik, Sami
This paper presents a scalable and fault-tolerant framework for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission management in complex and uncertain environments. The proposed approach addresses the computational bottleneck inherent in solving large-scale Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) by introducing a two-stage decomposition strategy. In the first stage, a factor-based algorithm partitions the global MDP into smaller, goal-specific sub-MDPs by leveraging domain-specific features such as goal priority, fault states, spatial layout, and energy constraints. In the second stage, a priority-based recombination algorithm solves each sub-MDP independently and integrates the results into a unified global policy using a meta-policy for conflict resolution. Importantly, we present a theoretical analysis showing that, under mild probabilistic independence assumptions, the combined policy is provably equivalent to the optimal global MDP policy. Our work advances artificial intelligence (AI) decision scalability by decomposing large MDPs into tractable subproblems with provable global equivalence. The proposed decomposition framework enhances the scalability of Markov Decision Processes, a cornerstone of sequential decision-making in artificial intelligence, enabling real-time policy updates for complex mission environments. Extensive simulations validate the effectiveness of our method, demonstrating orders-of-magnitude reduction in computation time without sacrificing mission reliability or policy optimality. The proposed framework establishes a practical and robust foundation for scalable decision-making in real-time UAV mission execution.
Assessing model error in counterfactual worlds
Howerton, Emily, Lessler, Justin
Counterfactual scenario modeling exercises that ask "what would happen if?" are one of the most common ways we plan for the future. Despite their ubiquity in planning and decision making, scenario projections are rarely evaluated retrospectively. Differences between projections and observations come from two sources: scenario deviation and model miscalibration. We argue the latter is most important for assessing the value of models in decision making, but requires estimating model error in counterfactual worlds. Here we present and contrast three approaches for estimating this error, and demonstrate the benefits and limitations of each in a simulation experiment. We provide recommendations for the estimation of counterfactual error and discuss the components of scenario design that are required to make scenario projections evaluable.
Forecasting India's Demographic Transition Under Fertility Policy Scenarios Using hybrid LSTM-PINN Model
Khanra, Subarna, Kukreja, Vijay Kumar, Bala, Indu
Demographic forecasting remains a fundamental challenge for policy planning in rapidly evolving nations such as India, where fertility transitions, policy interventions, and age structured dynamics interact in complex ways. In this study, we present a hybrid modelling framework that integrates policy-aware fertility functions into a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) enhanced with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture physical constraints and temporal dependencies in population dynamics. The model is applied to India's age structured population from 2024 to 2054 under three fertility-policy scenarios: continuation of current fertility decline, stricter population control, and relaxed fertility promotion. The governing transport-reaction partial differential equation is formulated with India-specific demographic indicators, including age-specific fertility and mortality rates. PINNs embed the core population equation and policy-driven fertility changes, while LSTM layers improve long-term forecasting across decades. Results show that fertility policies substantially shape future age distribution, dependency ratios, and workforce size. Stricter controls intensify ageing and reduce labour force participation, whereas relaxed policies support workforce growth but increase population pressure. Our findings suggest that the hybrid LSTM-PINN is an effective approach for demographic forecasting, offering accuracy with interpretability. Beyond methodological novelty, this work provides actionable insights for India's demographic policy debates, highlighting the need for balanced fertility interventions to ensure sustainable socio-economic development.
On the Regulatory Potential of User Interfaces for AI Agent Governance
Feng, K. J. Kevin, Kim, Tae Soo, Pang, Rock Yuren, Huq, Faria, August, Tal, Zhang, Amy X.
AI agents that take actions in their environment autonomously over extended time horizons require robust governance interventions to curb their potentially consequential risks. Prior proposals for governing AI agents primarily target system-level safeguards (e.g., prompt injection monitors) or agent infrastructure (e.g., agent IDs). In this work, we explore a complementary approach: regulating user interfaces of AI agents as a way of enforcing transparency and behavioral requirements that then demand changes at the system and/or infrastructure levels. Specifically, we analyze 22 existing agentic systems to identify UI elements that play key roles in human-agent interaction and communication. We then synthesize those elements into six high-level interaction design patterns that hold regulatory potential (e.g., requiring agent memory to be editable). We conclude with policy recommendations based on our analysis. Our work exposes a new surface for regulatory action that supplements previous proposals for practical AI agent governance.
Deep Learning for Modeling and Dispatching Hybrid Wind Farm Power Generation
Lawrence, Zach, Yao, Jessica, Qin, Chris
Abstract--Wind farms with integrated energy storage, or hybrid wind farms, are able to store energy and dispatch it to the grid following an operational strategy. For individual wind farms with integrated energy storage capacity, data-driven dispatch strategies using localized grid demand and market conditions as input parameters stand to maximize wind energy value. Synthetic power generation data modeled on atmospheric conditions provide another avenue for improving the robustness of data-driven dispatch strategies. T o these ends, the present work develops two deep learning frameworks: COVE-NN, an LSTM-based dispatch strategy tailored to individual wind farms, which reduced annual COVE by 32.3% over 43 years of simulated operations in a case study at the Pyron site; and a power generation modeling framework that reduced RMSE by 9.5% and improved power curve similarity by 18.9% when validated on the Palouse wind farm. T ogether, these models pave the way for more robust, data-driven dispatch strategies and potential extensions to other renewable energy systems. COV E Cost of valued energy. CRPS Continuous ranked probability score. RMSE Root mean squared error.
Realistic Handwritten Multi-Digit Writer (MDW) Number Recognition Challenges
Isolated digit classification has served as a motivating problem for decades of machine learning research. In real settings, numbers often occur as multiple digits, all written by the same person. Examples include ZIP Codes, handwritten check amounts, and appointment times. In this work, we leverage knowledge about the writers of NIST digit images to create more realistic benchmark multi-digit writer (MDW) data sets. As expected, we find that classifiers may perform well on isolated digits yet do poorly on multi-digit number recognition. If we want to solve real number recognition problems, additional advances are needed. The MDW benchmarks come with task-specific performance metrics that go beyond typical error calculations to more closely align with real-world impact. They also create opportunities to develop methods that can leverage task-specific knowledge to improve performance well beyond that of individual digit classification methods.