Is AI a bubble that's about to pop? - podcast Should we be worried about the vast amounts of money pouring into AI? And what will happen if the bubble bursts? For months there have been fears that artificial intelligence is a bubble and that it is about to burst. All are heavily invested in AI. Never before has so much of the economy been dependent on one technology.

House and Senate negotiators released a $900 billion defense bill targeting China with new investment restrictions, technology bans, and expanded military competition measures.

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as substitutes for missing or unobserved data. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to drawing inference with predicted data (IPD) and show that high predictive accuracy does not guarantee valid downstream inference. We show that all such failures reduce to statistical notions of (i) bias, when predictions systematically shift the estimand or distort relationships among variables, and (ii) variance, when uncertainty from the prediction model and the intrinsic variability of the true data are ignored. We then review recent methods for conducting IPD and discuss how this framework is deeply rooted in classical statistical theory. We then comment on some open questions and interesting avenues for future work in this area, and end with some comments on how to use predicted data in scientific studies that is both transparent and statistically principled.

We present a transfer-learning generative downscaling framework to reconstruct fine resolution satellite images from coarse scale inputs. Our approach combines a lightweight U-Net transfer encoder with a diffusion-based generative model. The simpler U-Net is first pretrained on a long time series of coarse resolution data to learn spatiotemporal representations; its encoder is then frozen and transferred to a larger downscaling model as physically meaningful latent features. Our application uses NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis as the low resolution source domain (50 km) and the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) as the high resolution target (7 km). Our study area included a large area in Asia, which was made computationally tractable by splitting into two subregions and four seasons. We conducted domain similarity analysis using Wasserstein distances confirmed minimal distributional shift between MERRA-2 and G5NR, validating the safety of parameter frozen transfer. Across seasonal regional splits, our model achieved excellent performance (R2 = 0.65 to 0.94), outperforming comparison models including deterministic U-Nets, variational autoencoders, and prior transfer learning baselines. Out of data evaluations using semivariograms, ACF/PACF, and lag-based RMSE/R2 demonstrated that the predicted downscaled images preserved physically consistent spatial variability and temporal autocorrelation, enabling stable autoregressive reconstruction beyond the G5NR record. These results show that transfer enhanced diffusion models provide a robust and physically coherent solution for downscaling a long time series of coarse resolution images with limited training periods. This advancement has significant implications for improving environmental exposure assessment and long term environmental monitoring.

Incomplete data are common in real-world applications. Sensors fail, records are inconsistent, and datasets collected from different sources often differ in scale, sampling rate, and quality. These differences create missing values that make it difficult to combine data and build reliable models. Standard imputation methods such as regression models, expectation-maximization, and multiple imputation rely on strong assumptions about linearity and independence. These assumptions rarely hold for complex or heterogeneous data, which can lead to biased or over-smoothed estimates. We propose Impugan, a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) for imputing missing values and integrating heterogeneous datasets. The model is trained on complete samples to learn how missing variables depend on observed ones. During inference, the generator reconstructs missing entries from available features, and the discriminator enforces realism by distinguishing true from imputed data. This adversarial process allows Impugan to capture nonlinear and multimodal relationships that conventional methods cannot represent. In experiments on benchmark datasets and a multi-source integration task, Impugan achieves up to 82\% lower Earth Mover's Distance (EMD) and 70\% lower mutual-information deviation (MI) compared to leading baselines. These results show that adversarially trained generative models provide a scalable and principled approach for imputing and merging incomplete, heterogeneous data. Our model is available at: github.com/zalishmahmud/impuganBigData2025

Deep residual networks (ResNets) have demonstrated outstanding success in computer vision tasks, attributed to their ability to maintain gradient flow through deep architectures. Simultaneously, controlling the Lipschitz constant in neural networks has emerged as an essential area of research to enhance adversarial robustness and network certifiability. This paper presents a rigorous approach to the general design of $\mathcal{L}$-Lipschitz deep residual networks using a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) framework. Initially, the ResNet architecture was reformulated as a cyclic tridiagonal LMI, and closed-form constraints on network parameters were derived to ensure $\mathcal{L}$-Lipschitz continuity; however, using a new $LDL^\top$ decomposition approach for certifying LMI feasibility, we extend the construction of $\mathcal{L}$-Lipchitz networks to any other nonlinear architecture. Our contributions include a provable parameterization methodology for constructing Lipschitz-constrained residual networks and other hierarchical architectures. Cholesky decomposition is also used for efficient parameterization. These findings enable robust network designs applicable to adversarial robustness, certified training, and control systems. The $LDL^\top$ formulation is shown to be a tight relaxation of the SDP-based network, maintaining full expressiveness and achieving 3\%-13\% accuracy gains over SLL Layers on 121 UCI data sets.

Abstract--This article presents a novel coordination and task-planning framework to enable the simultaneous conflict-free collaboration of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UA Vs) for aerial 3D printing. The proposed framework formulates an optimization problem that takes a construction mission divided into sub-tasks and a team of autonomous UA Vs, along with limited volume and battery. It generates an optimal mission plan comprising task assignments and scheduling, while accounting for task dependencies arising from the geometric and structural requirements of the 3D design, inter-UA V safety constraints, material usage and total flight time of each UA V. The potential conflicts occurring during the simultaneous operation of the UA Vs are addressed at a segment-level by dynamically selecting the starting time and location of each task to guarantee collision-free parallel execution. An importance prioritization is proposed to accelerate the computation by guiding the solution towards more important tasks. Additionally, a utility maximization formulation is proposed to dynamically determine the optimal number of UA Vs required for a given mission, balancing the trade-off between minimizing makespan and the deployment of excess agents. The proposed framework's effectiveness is evaluated through a Gazebo-based simulation setup, where agents are coordinated by a mission control module allocating the printing tasks based on the generated optimal scheduling plan while remaining within the material and battery constraints of each UA V. A video of the whole mission is available in the following link: https://youtu.be/b4jwhkNPT Note to Practitioners--This framework addresses the critical need for efficiency and safety in planning and scheduling multiple aerial robots for parallel aerial 3D printing. Existing approaches lack safety guarantees for UA Vs during parallel construction. This work tackles these challenges by ensuring safety during parallel operations and effectively managing task dependencies.

We introduce a system for real-time sperm whale rendezvous at sea using an autonomous uncrewed aerial vehicle. Our system employs model-based reinforcement learning that combines in situ sensor data with an empirical whale dive model to guide navigation decisions. Key challenges include (i) real-time acoustic tracking in the presence of multiple whales, (ii) distributed communication and decision-making for robot deployments, and (iii) on-board signal processing and long-range detection from fish-trackers. We evaluate our system by conducting rendezvous with sperm whales at sea in Dominica, performing hardware experiments on land, and running simulations using whale trajectories interpolated from marine biologists' surface observations.

Chemical reaction mechanisms provide crucial insight into synthesizability, yet current Computer-Assisted Synthesis Planning (CASP) systems lack mechanistic grounding. We introduce a computational framework for teaching language models to predict chemical reaction mechanisms through arrow pushing formalism, a century-old notation that tracks electron flow while respecting conservation laws. We developed MechSMILES, a compact textual format encoding molecular structure and electron flow, and trained language models on four mechanism prediction tasks of increasing complexity using mechanistic reaction datasets, such as mech-USPTO-31k and FlowER. Our models achieve more than 95\% top-3 accuracy on elementary step prediction and scores that surpass 73\% on mech-USPTO-31k, and 93\% on FlowER dataset for the retrieval of complete reaction mechanisms on our hardest task. This mechanistic understanding enables three key applications. First, our models serve as post-hoc validators for CASP systems, filtering chemically implausible transformations. Second, they enable holistic atom-to-atom mapping that tracks all atoms, including hydrogens. Third, they extract catalyst-aware reaction templates that distinguish recycled catalysts from spectator species. By grounding predictions in physically meaningful electron moves that ensure conservation of mass and charge, this work provides a pathway toward more explainable and chemically valid computational synthesis planning, while providing an architecture-agnostic framework for the benchmarking of mechanism prediction.

Abstract--This paper proposes a hierarchical trajectory planning framework for UA Vs operating under adversarial jamming conditions. Leveraging Bayesian Active Inference, the approach combines expert-generated demonstrations with probabilistic generative modeling to encode high-level symbolic planning, low-level motion policies, and wireless signal feedback. During deployment, the UA V performs online inference to anticipate interference, localize jammers, and adapt its trajectory accordingly--without prior knowledge of jammer locations. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves near-expert performance, significantly reducing communication interference and mission cost compared to model-free reinforcement learning baselines, while maintaining robust generalization in dynamic environments. Unmanned Aerial V ehicles (UA Vs) play a crucial role in military, public, and civilian applications due to their compact size, flexible deployment capabilities, and outstanding performance.