We explicitly solve the nonlinear PDE that is the continuous limit of dynamic programming of \emph{expert prediction problem} in finite horizon setting with $N=4$ experts. The \emph{expert prediction problem} is formulated as a zero sum game between a player and an adversary. By showing that the solution is $\mathcal{C}^2$, we are able to show that the strategies conjectured in arXiv:1409.3040G form an asymptotic Nash equilibrium. We also prove the "Finite vs Geometric regret" conjecture proposed in arXiv:1409.3040G for $N=4$, and we give a stronger conjecture which characterizes the relation between the finite and geometric stopping.

Membership inference attacks seek to infer the membership of individual training instances of a privately trained model. This paper presents a membership privacy analysis and evaluation system, called MPLens, with three unique contributions. First, through MPLens, we demonstrate how membership inference attack methods can be leveraged in adversarial machine learning. Second, through MPLens, we highlight how the vulnerability of pre-trained models under membership inference attack is not uniform across all classes, particularly when the training data itself is skewed. We show that risk from membership inference attacks is routinely increased when models use skewed training data. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of differential privacy as a mitigation technique against membership inference attacks. We discuss the trade-offs of implementing such a mitigation strategy with respect to the model complexity, the learning task complexity, the dataset complexity and the privacy parameter settings. Our empirical results reveal that (1) minority groups within skewed datasets display increased risk for membership inference and (2) differential privacy presents many challenging trade-offs as a mitigation technique to membership inference risk.

Information theory provides a mathematical foundation to measure uncertainty in belief. Belief is represented by a probability distribution that captures our understanding of an outcome's plausibility. Information measures based on Shannon's concept of entropy include realization information, Kullback-Leibler divergence, Lindley's information in experiment, cross entropy, and mutual information. We derive a general theory of information from first principles that accounts for evolving belief and recovers all of these measures. Rather than simply gauging uncertainty, information is understood in this theory to measure change in belief. We may then regard entropy as the information we expect to gain upon realization of a discrete latent random variable. This theory of information is compatible with the Bayesian paradigm in which rational belief is updated as evidence becomes available. Furthermore, this theory admits novel measures of information with well-defined properties, which we explore in both analysis and experiment. This view of information illuminates the study of machine learning by allowing us to quantify information captured by a predictive model and distinguish it from residual information contained in training data. We gain related insights regarding feature selection, anomaly detection, and novel Bayesian approaches.

Deep convolutional neural networks for multi-scale time-series classification and application to disruption prediction in fusion devices R.M. Churchill Theory Department Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory 100 Stellarator Road, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA rchurchi@pppl.gov and the DIII-D team General Atomics P .O. Box 85608, San Diego, California 92186, USA Abstract The multi-scale, mutli-physics nature of fusion plasmas makes predicting plasma events challenging. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network architectures (CNN) utilizing dilated convolutions enable accurate predictions on sequences which have long-range, multi-scale characteristics, such as the time-series generated by diagnostic instruments observing fusion plasmas. Here we apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic from the DIII-D tokamak. ECEi measures a fundamental plasma quantity (electron temperature) with high temporal resolution over the entire plasma discharge, making it sensitive to a number of potential pre-disruptions markers with different temporal and spatial scales. Promising, initial disruption prediction results are obtained training a deep CNN with large receptive field ( 30k), achieving an F 1-score of 91% on individual time-slices using only the ECEi data. 1 Introduction Plasma phenomena contain a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, often exhibiting multi-scale characteristics (see Figure 1).

The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the development of a knowledge-based infrastructure to support MSP decision-making processes. The paper emerged from a study to define specifications for a knowledge-based infrastructure to provide decision support for community-level MSPs in the Canadian province of Quebec. As part of the study, a process assessment was conducted to understand the needs of communities as they collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions about their priorities. The result of this process is a portrait, which is an epidemiological profile of health and nutrition in their community. Portraits inform strategic planning and development of interventions and are used to assess the impact of interventions. Our key findings indicate ambiguities and disagreement among MSP decision-makers regarding causal relationships between actions and outcomes, and the relevant data needed for making decisions. MSP decision-makers expressed a desire for easy-to-use tools that facilitate the collection, organization, synthesis, and analysis of data, to enable decision-making in a timely manner. Findings inform conceptual modeling and ontological analysis to capture the domain knowledge and specify relationships between actions and outcomes. This modeling and analysis provide the foundation for an ontology, encoded using OWL 2 Web Ontology Language. The ontology is developed to provide semantic support for the MSP process, defining objectives, strategies, actions, indicators, and data sources. In the future, software interacting with the ontology can facilitate interactive browsing by decision-makers in the MSP in the form of concepts, instances, relationships, and axioms. Our ontology also facilitates the integration and interpretation of community data and can help in managing semantic interoperability between different knowledge sources.

Could the same computer algorithms that teach autonomous cars to drive safely help identify nearby asteroids or discover life in the universe? NASA scientists are trying to figure that out by partnering with pioneers in artificial intelligence (AI)--companies such as Intel, IBM and Google--to apply advanced computer algorithms to problems in space science. Machine learning is a type of AI. It describes the most widely used algorithms and other tools that allow computers to learn from data in order to make predictions and categorize objects much faster and more accurately than a human being can. Consequently, machine learning is widely used to help technology companies recognize faces in photos or predict what movies people would enjoy.

CAIML #9 took place on November 14 at factor-a – part of Dept, demonstrating how AI can be used for social good and to address societal challenges. "Aid organizations and governments are applying great effort in resolving the negative impacts of food insecurity induced crisis like famines or mass migration. One of the most limiting resources these actors face is the lack of preparation time for consistent and sustainable planning for emergency relief like setting refugee camps or securing supply with food and energy. Hence, increasing the lead time for preparation is an essential step and will result in saving many lives. The aim of this research is to increase the lead time by developing a ML based mathematical prediction model that is able to compute the probability for food insecure areas by learning from historical data. For performing such computations, our prediction model is developed and trained on historic open access data for the Horn of Africa (2009-2018). We used precipitation and vegetation data derived by remote sensing, as well as socio-economic, medical, armed conflict and disaster data. To overcome spatial inconsistencies in the input data and to meet the requirements of spatially homogenous input for neural networks, all data has been converted to geo-referenced raster maps. Disaster and armed conflict data has been fitted to districts while local food market prices have been interpolated. The IPC has been used as the food security label. In order to find a prediction model, deep learning methods have been used. Several analyses were applied on the collected data such as multicollinearity checks and principal component analyses. Preliminary cross-validated results have encouraged us to further investigate the detection of food insecure areas using open access data."

Whatever happened to the "smart city?" It's alive and well but morphing into the "hyperconnected city," powered by data analytics, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT), and other advanced technologies. Among the goals: Create new business opportunities, increase the efficiency of government processes, and improve public safety and health, according to a new study by research firm ESI ThoughtLab and sponsored by Oracle. Those benefits will come with a discernible return on investment that increases as connectivity expands, the report maintains. One surprising finding is the extent to which hyperconnected cities--even some with huge technology investments--admit to being largely unprepared for cyberattacks.

Everything you need to know about Duchess of Sussex Meghan Markle and her new life as part of the British royal family. There's something about that "Markle sparkle" that has the world transfixed, seeing as Meghan Markle has now been named the world's "most powerful dresser" in a 2019 report from Lyst, a fashion search engine. It was a big year for the Duchess of Sussex, who stylishly seized the spotlight at dozens of public appearances and royal tours, and even when introducing the world to baby Archie -- and according to Lyst, shoppers took notice. There's something about that "Markle sparkle" that has the world transfixed, as Meghan Markle has been named the world's most powerful dresser of 2019. According to Lyst's annual Year in Fashion roundup, each of the Duchess' numerous fashion statements sparked a 216-percent average increase in search for similar items.

DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) announced $15 million in funding for 23 projects.