With the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak, we characterize the nature of the growth trajectories of counties in the United States using a novel combination of spectral clustering and the correlation matrix. As the U.S. and the rest of the world are experiencing a severe second wave of infections, the importance of assigning growth membership to counties and understanding the determinants of the growth are increasingly evident. Subsequently, we select the demographic features that are most statistically significant in distinguishing the communities. Lastly, we effectively predict the future growth of a given county with an LSTM using three social distancing scores. This comprehensive study captures the nature of counties' growth in cases at a very micro-level using growth communities, demographic factors, and social distancing performance to help government agencies utilize known information to make appropriate decisions regarding which potential counties to target resources and funding to.

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Platelet products are both expensive and have very short shelf lives. As usage rates for platelets are highly variable, the effective management of platelet demand and supply is very important yet challenging. The primary goal of this paper is to present an efficient forecasting model for platelet demand at Canadian Blood Services (CBS). To accomplish this goal, four different demand forecasting methods, ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average), Prophet, lasso regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks are utilized and evaluated. We use a large clinical dataset for a centralized blood distribution centre for four hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario, spanning from 2010 to 2018 and consisting of daily platelet transfusions along with information such as the product specifications, the recipients' characteristics, and the recipients' laboratory test results. This study is the first to utilize different methods from statistical time series models to data-driven regression and a machine learning technique for platelet transfusion using clinical predictors and with different amounts of data. We find that the multivariate approaches have the highest accuracy in general, however, if sufficient data are available, a simpler time series approach such as ARIMA appears to be sufficient. We also comment on the approach to choose clinical indicators (inputs) for the multivariate models.

Mixed membership problem for undirected network has been well studied in network analysis recent years. However, the more general case of mixed membership for directed network remains a challenge. Here, we propose an interpretable model: bipartite mixed membership stochastic blockmodel (BiMMSB for short) for directed mixed membership networks. BiMMSB allows that row nodes and column nodes of the adjacency matrix can be different and these nodes may have distinct community structure in a directed network. We also develop an efficient spectral algorithm called BiMPCA to estimate the mixed memberships for both row nodes and column nodes in a directed network. We show that the approach is asymptotically consistent under BiMMSB. We demonstrate the advantages of BiMMSB with applications to a small-scale simulation study, the directed Political blogs network and the Papers Citations network.

We present a convex cone program to infer the latent probability matrix of a random dot product graph (RDPG). The optimization problem maximizes the Bernoulli maximum likelihood function with an added nuclear norm regularization term. The dual problem has a particularly nice form, related to the well-known semidefinite program relaxation of the maxcut problem. Using the primal-dual optimality conditions, we bound the entries and rank of the primal and dual solutions. Furthermore, we bound the optimal objective value and prove asymptotic consistency of the probability estimates of a slightly modified model under mild technical assumptions. Our experiments on synthetic RDPGs not only recover natural clusters, but also reveal the underlying low-dimensional geometry of the original data. We also demonstrate that the method recovers latent structure in the Karate Club Graph and synthetic U.S. Senate vote graphs and is scalable to graphs with up to a few hundred nodes.

Security cameras and facial recognition technology are on the rise in China. In 2018, People's Daily, the media mouthpiece of China's ruling Communist Party, claimed on English-language Twitter that the country's facial recognition system was capable of scanning the faces of China's 1.4 billion citizens in just one second. German journalist Kai Strittmatter speaks fluent Mandarin and has studied China for more than 30 years. He says it's not clear whether or not the Chinese government is capable of using facial recognition software in the way it claims. But he adds, on a certain level, the veracity of the claim isn't important.

Political polarization in the US is on the rise. This polarization negatively affects the public sphere by contributing to the creation of ideological echo chambers. In this paper, we focus on addressing one of the factors that contributes to this polarity, polarized media. We introduce a framework for depolarizing news articles. Given an article on a certain topic with a particular ideological slant (eg., liberal or conservative), the framework first detects polar language in the article and then generates a new article with the polar language replaced with neutral expressions. To detect polar words, we train a multi-attribute-aware word embedding model that is aware of ideology and topics on 360k full-length media articles. Then, for text generation, we propose a new algorithm called Text Annealing Depolarization Algorithm (TADA). TADA retrieves neutral expressions from the word embedding model that not only decrease ideological polarity but also preserve the original argument of the text, while maintaining grammatical correctness. We evaluate our framework by comparing the depolarized output of our model in two modes, fully-automatic and semi-automatic, on 99 stories spanning 11 topics. Based on feedback from 161 human testers, our framework successfully depolarized 90.1% of paragraphs in semi-automatic mode and 78.3% of paragraphs in fully-automatic mode. Furthermore, 81.2% of the testers agree that the non-polar content information is well-preserved and 79% agree that depolarization does not harm semantic correctness when they compare the original text and the depolarized text. Our work shows that data-driven methods can help to locate political polarity and aid in the depolarization of articles.

Superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. In light of recent advances in machine intelligence, a number of scientists, philosophers and technologists have revived the discussion about the potentially catastrophic risks entailed by such an entity. In this article, we trace the origins and development of the neo-fear of superintelligence, and some of the major proposals for its containment. We argue that total containment is, in principle, impossible, due to fundamental limits inherent to computing itself. Assuming that a superintelligence will contain a program that includes all the programs that can be executed by a universal Turing machine on input potentially as complex as the state of the world, strict containment requires simulations of such a program, something theoretically (and practically) impossible. "Machines take me by surprise with great frequency. This is largely because I do not do sufficient calculation to decide what to expect them to do." Alan Turing (1950), Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Mind, 59, 433-460

Modern neural network architectures use structured linear transformations, such as low-rank matrices, sparse matrices, permutations, and the Fourier transform, to improve inference speed and reduce memory usage compared to general linear maps. However, choosing which of the myriad structured transformations to use (and its associated parameterization) is a laborious task that requires trading off speed, space, and accuracy. We consider a different approach: we introduce a family of matrices called kaleidoscope matrices (K-matrices) that provably capture any structured matrix with near-optimal space (parameter) and time (arithmetic operation) complexity. We empirically validate that K-matrices can be automatically learned within end-to-end pipelines to replace hand-crafted procedures, in order to improve model quality. For example, replacing channel shuffles in ShuffleNet improves classification accuracy on ImageNet by up to 5%. K-matrices can also simplify hand-engineered pipelines -- we replace filter bank feature computation in speech data preprocessing with a learnable kaleidoscope layer, resulting in only 0.4% loss in accuracy on the TIMIT speech recognition task. In addition, K-matrices can capture latent structure in models: for a challenging permuted image classification task, a K-matrix based representation of permutations is able to learn the right latent structure and improves accuracy of a downstream convolutional model by over 9%. We provide a practically efficient implementation of our approach, and use K-matrices in a Transformer network to attain 36% faster end-to-end inference speed on a language translation task.

The task of the contest is to create high-resolution (1m / pixel) land cover change maps of a study area in Maryland, USA, given multi-resolution imagery and label data. We study several baseline models for this task and discuss directions for further research.