Adoption of deep neural networks in fields such as economics or finance has been constrained by the lack of interpretability of model outcomes. This paper proposes a generative neural network architecture -- the parameter encoder neural network (PENN) -- capable of estimating local posterior distributions for the parameters of a regression model. The parameters fully explain predictions in terms of the inputs and permit visualization, interpretation and inference in the presence of complex heterogeneous effects and feature dependencies. The use of Bayesian inference techniques offers an intuitive mechanism to regularize local parameter estimates towards a stable solution, and to reduce noise-fitting in settings of limited data availability. The proposed neural network is particularly well-suited to applications in economics and finance, where parameter inference plays an important role. An application to an asset pricing problem demonstrates how the PENN can be used to explore nonlinear risk dynamics in financial markets, and to compare empirical nonlinear effects to behavior posited by financial theory.

The community detection problem requires to cluster the nodes of a network into a small number of well-connected "communities". There has been substantial recent progress in characterizing the fundamental statistical limits of community detection under simple stochastic block models. However, in real-world applications, the network structure is typically dynamic, with nodes that join over time. In this setting, we would like a detection algorithm to perform only a limited number of updates at each node arrival. While standard voting approaches satisfy this constraint, it is unclear whether they exploit the network information optimally. We introduce a simple model for networks growing over time which we refer to as streaming stochastic block model (StSBM). Within this model, we prove that voting algorithms have fundamental limitations. We also develop a streaming belief-propagation (StreamBP) approach, for which we prove optimality in certain regimes. We validate our theoretical findings on synthetic and real data.

Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertainty leads to uncertainty in future climate risks. Consequently, there is a need to understand how those parameter uncertainties impact our assessment of future climate risks and the efficacy of strategies to manage them. Here, we use random forests to examine the parametric drivers of future climate risk and how the relative importances of those drivers change over time. We find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and a factor that scales the effect of aerosols on radiative forcing are consistently the most important climate model parametric uncertainties throughout the 2020 to 2150 interval for both low and high radiative forcing scenarios. The near-term hazards of high-end sea-level rise are driven primarily by thermal expansion, while the longer-term hazards are associated with mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our results highlight the practical importance of considering time-evolving parametric uncertainties when developing strategies to manage future climate risks.

We study a social learning model in which agents iteratively update their beliefs about the true state of the world using private signals and the beliefs of other agents in a non-Bayesian manner. Some agents are stubborn, meaning they attempt to convince others of an erroneous true state (modeling fake news). We show that while agents learn the true state on short timescales, they "forget" it and believe the erroneous state to be true on longer timescales. Using these results, we devise strategies for seeding stubborn agents so as to disrupt learning, which outperform intuitive heuristics and give novel insights regarding vulnerabilities in social learning.

As AI systems are integrated into high stakes social domains, researchers now examine how to design and operate them in a safe and ethical manner. However, the criteria for identifying and diagnosing safety risks in complex social contexts remain unclear and contested. In this paper, we examine the vagueness in debates about the safety and ethical behavior of AI systems. We show how this vagueness cannot be resolved through mathematical formalism alone, instead requiring deliberation about the politics of development as well as the context of deployment. Drawing from a new sociotechnical lexicon, we redefine vagueness in terms of distinct design challenges at key stages in AI system development. The resulting framework of Hard Choices in Artificial Intelligence (HCAI) empowers developers by 1) identifying points of overlap between design decisions and major sociotechnical challenges; 2) motivating the creation of stakeholder feedback channels so that safety issues can be exhaustively addressed. As such, HCAI contributes to a timely debate about the status of AI development in democratic societies, arguing that deliberation should be the goal of AI Safety, not just the procedure by which it is ensured.

We propose a practical approach to computing market prices and allocations via a deep reinforcement learning policymaker agent, operating in an environment of other learning agents. Compared to the idealized market equilibrium outcome -- which we use as a benchmark -- our policymaker is much more flexible, allowing us to tune the prices with regard to diverse objectives such as sustainability and resource wastefulness, fairness, buyers' and sellers' welfare, etc. To evaluate our approach, we design a realistic market with multiple and diverse buyers and sellers. Additionally, the sellers, which are deep learning agents themselves, compete for resources in a common-pool appropriation environment based on bio-economic models of commercial fisheries. We demonstrate that: (a) The introduced policymaker is able to achieve comparable performance to the market equilibrium, showcasing the potential of such approaches in markets where the equilibrium prices can not be efficiently computed. (b) Our policymaker can notably outperform the equilibrium solution on certain metrics, while at the same time maintaining comparable performance for the remaining ones. (c) As a highlight of our findings, our policymaker is significantly more successful in maintaining resource sustainability, compared to the market outcome, in scarce resource environments.

Sparse adversarial attacks can fool deep neural networks (DNNs) by only perturbing a few pixels (regularized by l_0 norm). Recent efforts combine it with another l_infty imperceptible on the perturbation magnitudes. The resultant sparse and imperceptible attacks are practically relevant, and indicate an even higher vulnerability of DNNs that we usually imagined. However, such attacks are more challenging to generate due to the optimization difficulty by coupling the l_0 regularizer and box constraints with a non-convex objective. In this paper, we address this challenge by proposing a homotopy algorithm, to jointly tackle the sparsity and the perturbation bound in one unified framework. Each iteration, the main step of our algorithm is to optimize an l_0-regularized adversarial loss, by leveraging the nonmonotone Accelerated Proximal Gradient Method (nmAPG) for nonconvex programming; it is followed by an l_0 change control step, and an optional post-attack step designed to escape bad local minima. We also extend the algorithm to handling the structural sparsity regularizer. We extensively examine the effectiveness of our proposed homotopy attack for both targeted and non-targeted attack scenarios, on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, our homotopy attack leads to significantly fewer perturbations, e.g., reducing 42.91% on CIFAR-10 and 75.03% on ImageNet (average case, targeted attack), at similar maximal perturbation magnitudes, when still achieving 100% attack success rates. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/VITA-Group/SparseADV_Homotopy.

Future short or long-term space missions require a new generation of monitoring and diagnostic systems due to communication impasses as well as limitations in specialized crew and equipment. Machine learning supported diagnostic systems present a viable solution for medical and technical applications. We discuss challenges and applicability of such systems in light of upcoming missions and outline an example use case for a next-generation medical diagnostic system for future space operations. Additionally, we present approach recommendations and constraints for the successful generation and use of machine learning models aboard a spacecraft.

The advances in artificial intelligence enabled by deep learning architectures are undeniable. In several cases, deep neural network driven models have surpassed human level performance in benchmark autonomy tasks. The underlying policies for these agents, however, are not easily interpretable. In fact, given their underlying deep models, it is impossible to directly understand the mapping from observations to actions for any reasonably complex agent. Producing this supporting technology to "open the black box" of these AI systems, while not sacrificing performance, was the fundamental goal of the DARPA XAI program. In our journey through this program, we have several "big picture" takeaways: 1) Explanations need to be highly tailored to their scenario; 2) many seemingly high performing RL agents are extremely brittle and are not amendable to explanation; 3) causal models allow for rich explanations, but how to present them isn't always straightforward; and 4) human subjects conjure fantastically wrong mental models for AIs, and these models are often hard to break. This paper discusses the origins of these takeaways, provides amplifying information, and suggestions for future work.

Due to the growing awareness of driving safety and the development of sophisticated technologies, advanced driving assistance system (ADAS) has been equipped in more and more vehicles with higher accuracy and lower price. The latest progress in this field has called for a review to sum up the conventional knowledge of ADAS, the state-of-the-art researches, and novel applications in real-world. With the help of this kind of review, newcomers in this field can get basic knowledge easier and other researchers may be inspired with potential future development possibility. This paper makes a general introduction about ADAS by analyzing its hardware support and computation algorithms. Different types of perception sensors are introduced from their interior feature classifications, installation positions, supporting ADAS functions, and pros and cons. The comparisons between different sensors are concluded and illustrated from their inherent characters and specific usages serving for each ADAS function. The current algorithms for ADAS functions are also collected and briefly presented in this paper from both traditional methods and novel ideas. Additionally, discussions about the definition of ADAS from different institutes are reviewed in this paper, and future approaches about ADAS in China are introduced in particular.