Beginning with Witkowski et al. [2022], recent work on forecasting competitions has addressed incentive problems with the common winner-take-all mechanism. Frongillo et al. [2021] propose a competition mechanism based on follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL), an online learning framework. They show that their mechanism selects an $\epsilon$-optimal forecaster with high probability using only $O(\log(n)/\epsilon^2)$ events. These works, together with all prior work on this problem thus far, assume that events are independent. We initiate the study of forecasting competitions for correlated events. To quantify correlation, we introduce a notion of block correlation, which allows each event to be strongly correlated with up to $b$ others. We show that under distributions with this correlation, the FTRL mechanism retains its $\epsilon$-optimal guarantee using $O(b^2 \log(n)/\epsilon^2)$ events. Our proof involves a novel concentration bound for correlated random variables which may be of broader interest.

Symmetry is a fundamental tool in the exploration of a broad range of complex systems. In machine learning symmetry has been explored in both models and data. In this paper we seek to connect the symmetries arising from the architecture of a family of models with the symmetries of that family's internal representation of data. We do this by calculating a set of fundamental symmetry groups, which we call the intertwiner groups of the model. We connect intertwiner groups to a model's internal representations of data through a range of experiments that probe similarities between hidden states across models with the same architecture. Our work suggests that the symmetries of a network are propagated into the symmetries in that network's representation of data, providing us with a better understanding of how architecture affects the learning and prediction process. Finally, we speculate that for ReLU networks, the intertwiner groups may provide a justification for the common practice of concentrating model interpretability exploration on the activation basis in hidden layers rather than arbitrary linear combinations thereof.

Planning agents are ill-equipped to act in novel situations in which their domain model no longer accurately represents the world. We introduce an approach for such agents operating in open worlds that detects the presence of novelties and effectively adapts their domain models and consequent action selection. It uses observations of action execution and measures their divergence from what is expected, according to the environment model, to infer existence of a novelty. Then, it revises the model through a heuristics-guided search over model changes. We report empirical evaluations on the CartPole problem, a standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) benchmark. The results show that our approach can deal with a class of novelties very quickly and in an interpretable fashion.

An increasing amount of applications rely on data-driven models that are deployed for perception tasks across a sequence of scenes. Due to the mismatch between training and deployment data, adapting the model on the new scenes is often crucial to obtain good performance. In this work, we study continual multi-scene adaptation for the task of semantic segmentation, assuming that no ground-truth labels are available during deployment and that performance on the previous scenes should be maintained. We propose training a Semantic-NeRF network for each scene by fusing the predictions of a segmentation model and then using the view-consistent rendered semantic labels as pseudo-labels to adapt the model. Through joint training with the segmentation model, the Semantic-NeRF model effectively enables 2D-3D knowledge transfer. Furthermore, due to its compact size, it can be stored in a long-term memory and subsequently used to render data from arbitrary viewpoints to reduce forgetting. We evaluate our approach on ScanNet, where we outperform both a voxel-based baseline and a state-of-the-art unsupervised domain adaptation method.

Recent advances in remote health monitoring systems have significantly benefited patients and played a crucial role in improving their quality of life. However, while physiological health-focused solutions have demonstrated increasing success and maturity, mental health-focused applications have seen comparatively limited success in spite of the fact that stress and anxiety disorders are among the most common issues people deal with in their daily lives. In the hopes of furthering progress in this domain through the development of a more robust analytic framework for the measurement of indicators of mental health, we propose a multi-modal semi-supervised framework for tracking physiological precursors of the stress response. Our methodology enables utilizing multi-modal data of differing domains and resolutions from wearable devices and leveraging them to map short-term episodes to semantically efficient embeddings for a given task. Additionally, we leverage an inter-modality contrastive objective, with the advantages of rendering our framework both modular and scalable. The focus on optimizing both local and global aspects of our embeddings via a hierarchical structure renders transferring knowledge and compatibility with other devices easier to achieve. In our pipeline, a task-specific pooling based on an attention mechanism, which estimates the contribution of each modality on an instance level, computes the final embeddings for observations. This additionally provides a thorough diagnostic insight into the data characteristics and highlights the importance of signals in the broader view of predicting episodes annotated per mental health status. We perform training experiments using a corpus of real-world data on perceived stress, and our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in performance improvements.

We propose an approach for adversarial attacks on dense prediction models (such as object detectors and segmentation). It is well known that the attacks generated by a single surrogate model do not transfer to arbitrary (blackbox) victim models. Furthermore, targeted attacks are often more challenging than the untargeted attacks. In this paper, we show that a carefully designed ensemble can create effective attacks for a number of victim models. In particular, we show that normalization of the weights for individual models plays a critical role in the success of the attacks. We then demonstrate that by adjusting the weights of the ensemble according to the victim model can further improve the performance of the attacks. We performed a number of experiments for object detectors and segmentation to highlight the significance of the our proposed methods. Our proposed ensemble-based method outperforms existing blackbox attack methods for object detection and segmentation. Finally we show that our proposed method can also generate a single perturbation that can fool multiple blackbox detection and segmentation models simultaneously. Code is available at https://github.com/CSIPlab/EBAD.

We formulate a stochastic process, FiLex, as a mathematical model of lexicon entropy in deep learning-based emergent language systems. Defining a model mathematically allows it to generate clear predictions which can be directly and decisively tested. We empirically verify across four different environments that FiLex predicts the correct correlation between hyperparameters (training steps, lexicon size, learning rate, rollout buffer size, and Gumbel-Softmax temperature) and the emergent language's entropy in 20 out of 20 environment-hyperparameter combinations. Furthermore, our experiments reveal that different environments show diverse relationships between their hyperparameters and entropy which demonstrates the need for a model which can make well-defined predictions at a precise level of granularity.

We consider the problem of controlling an unknown stochastic linear system with quadratic costs - called the adaptive LQ control problem. We re-examine an approach called ''Reward Biased Maximum Likelihood Estimate'' (RBMLE) that was proposed more than forty years ago, and which predates the ''Upper Confidence Bound'' (UCB) method as well as the definition of ''regret'' for bandit problems. It simply added a term favoring parameters with larger rewards to the criterion for parameter estimation. We show how the RBMLE and UCB methods can be reconciled, and thereby propose an Augmented RBMLE-UCB algorithm that combines the penalty of the RBMLE method with the constraints of the UCB method, uniting the two approaches to optimism in the face of uncertainty. We establish that theoretically, this method retains $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret, the best-known so far. We further compare the empirical performance of the proposed Augmented RBMLE-UCB and the standard RBMLE (without the augmentation) with UCB, Thompson Sampling, Input Perturbation, Randomized Certainty Equivalence and StabL on many real-world examples including flight control of Boeing 747 and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. We perform extensive simulation studies showing that the Augmented RBMLE consistently outperforms UCB, Thompson Sampling and StabL by a huge margin, while it is marginally better than Input Perturbation and moderately better than Randomized Certainty Equivalence.

Generics express generalizations about the world (e.g., birds can fly) that are not universally true (e.g., newborn birds and penguins cannot fly). Commonsense knowledge bases, used extensively in NLP, encode some generic knowledge but rarely enumerate such exceptions and knowing when a generic statement holds or does not hold true is crucial for developing a comprehensive understanding of generics. We present a novel framework informed by linguistic theory to generate exemplars -- specific cases when a generic holds true or false. We generate ~19k exemplars for ~650 generics and show that our framework outperforms a strong GPT-3 baseline by 12.8 precision points. Our analysis highlights the importance of linguistic theory-based controllability for generating exemplars, the insufficiency of knowledge bases as a source of exemplars, and the challenges exemplars pose for the task of natural language inference.

We analyze stochastic gradient descent (SGD) type algorithms on a high-dimensional sphere which is parameterized by a neural network up to a normalization constant. We provide a new algorithm for the setting of supervised learning and show its convergence both theoretically and numerically. We also provide the first proof of convergence for the unsupervised setting, which corresponds to the widely used variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method in quantum physics.