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A Predictive Model of Digital Information Engagement: Forecasting User Engagement With English Words by Incorporating Cognitive Biases, Computational Linguistics and Natural Language Processing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study introduces and empirically tests a novel predictive model for digital information engagement (IE) - the READ model, an acronym for the four pivotal attributes of engaging information: Representativeness, Ease-of-use, Affect, and Distribution. Conceptualized within the theoretical framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory, the model integrates key cognitive biases with computational linguistics and natural language processing to develop a multidimensional perspective on information engagement. A rigorous testing protocol was implemented, involving 50 randomly selected pairs of synonymous words (100 words in total) from the WordNet database. These words' engagement levels were evaluated through a large-scale online survey (n = 80,500) to derive empirical IE metrics. The READ attributes for each word were then computed and their predictive efficacy examined. The findings affirm the READ model's robustness, accurately predicting a word's IE level and distinguishing the more engaging word from a pair of synonyms with an 84% accuracy rate. The READ model's potential extends across various domains, including business, education, government, and healthcare, where it could enhance content engagement and inform AI language model development and generative text work. Future research should address the model's scalability and adaptability across different domains and languages, thereby broadening its applicability and efficacy.


Training Quantum Boltzmann Machines with Coresets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent work has proposed and explored using coreset techniques for quantum algorithms that operate on classical data sets to accelerate the applicability of these algorithms on near-term quantum devices. We apply these ideas to Quantum Boltzmann Machines (QBM) where gradient-based steps which require Gibbs state sampling are the main computational bottleneck during training. By using a coreset in place of the full data set, we try to minimize the number of steps needed and accelerate the overall training time. In a regime where computational time on quantum computers is a precious resource, we propose this might lead to substantial practical savings. We evaluate this approach on 6x6 binary images from an augmented bars and stripes data set using a QBM with 36 visible units and 8 hidden units. Using an Inception score inspired metric, we compare QBM training times with and without using coresets.


Predictive Maintenance of Armoured Vehicles using Machine Learning Approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Armoured vehicles are specialized and complex pieces of machinery designed to operate in high-stress environments, often in combat or tactical situations. This study proposes a predictive maintenance-based ensemble system that aids in predicting potential maintenance needs based on sensor data collected from these vehicles. The proposed model's architecture involves various models such as Light Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Extra Tree Classifier and Gradient Boosting to predict the maintenance requirements of the vehicles accurately. In addition, K-fold cross validation, along with TOPSIS analysis, is employed to evaluate the proposed ensemble model's stability. The results indicate that the proposed system achieves an accuracy of 98.93%, precision of 99.80% and recall of 99.03%. The algorithm can effectively predict maintenance needs, thereby reducing vehicle downtime and improving operational efficiency. Through comparisons between various algorithms and the suggested ensemble, this study highlights the potential of machine learning-based predictive maintenance solutions.


Skill-it! A Data-Driven Skills Framework for Understanding and Training Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The quality of training data impacts the performance of pre-trained large language models (LMs). Given a fixed budget of tokens, we study how to best select data that leads to good downstream model performance across tasks. We develop a new framework based on a simple hypothesis: just as humans acquire interdependent skills in a deliberate order, language models also follow a natural order when learning a set of skills from their training data. If such an order exists, it can be utilized for improved understanding of LMs and for data-efficient training. Using this intuition, our framework formalizes the notion of a skill and of an ordered set of skills in terms of the associated data. First, using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that these ordered skill sets exist, and that their existence enables more advanced skills to be learned with less data when we train on their prerequisite skills. Second, using our proposed framework, we introduce an online data sampling algorithm, Skill-It, over mixtures of skills for both continual pre-training and fine-tuning regimes, where the objective is to efficiently learn multiple skills in the former and an individual skill in the latter. On the LEGO synthetic in the continual pre-training setting, Skill-It obtains 36.5 points higher accuracy than random sampling. On the Natural Instructions dataset in the fine-tuning setting, Skill-It reduces the validation loss on the target skill by 13.6% versus training on data associated with the target skill itself. We apply our skills framework on the recent RedPajama dataset to continually pre-train a 3B-parameter LM, achieving higher accuracy on the LM Evaluation Harness with 1B tokens than the baseline approach of sampling uniformly over data sources with 3B tokens.


Improving International Climate Policy via Mutually Conditional Binding Commitments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Paris Agreement, considered a significant milestone in climate negotiations, has faced challenges in effectively addressing climate change due to the unconditional nature of most Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This has resulted in a prevalence of free-riding behavior among major polluters and a lack of concrete conditionality in NDCs. To address this issue, we propose the implementation of a decentralized, bottom-up approach called the Conditional Commitment Mechanism. This mechanism, inspired by the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, offers flexibility and incentives for early adopters, aiming to formalize conditional cooperation in international climate policy. In this paper, we provide an overview of the mechanism, its performance in the AI4ClimateCooperation challenge, and discuss potential real-world implementation aspects. Prior knowledge of the climate mitigation collective action problem, basic economic principles, and game theory concepts are assumed.


Improving International Climate Policy via Mutually Conditional Binding Commitments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes enhancements to the RICE-N simulation and multi-agent reinforcement learning framework to improve the realism of international climate policy negotiations. Acknowledging the framework's value, we highlight the necessity of significant enhancements to address the diverse array of factors in modeling climate negotiations. Building upon our previous work on the "Conditional Commitments Mechanism" (CCF mechanism) we discuss ways to bridge the gap between simulation and reality. We suggest the inclusion of a recommender or planner agent to enhance coordination, address the Real2Sim gap by incorporating social factors and non-party stakeholder sub-agents, and propose enhancements to the underlying Reinforcement Learning solution algorithm. These proposed improvements aim to advance the evaluation and formulation of negotiation protocols for more effective international climate policy decision-making in Rice-N. However, further experimentation and testing are required to determine the implications and effectiveness of these suggestions.


Explore the possibility of advancing climate negotiations on the basis of regional trade organizations: A study based on RICE-N

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate issues have become more and more important now. Although global governments have made some progress, we are still facing the truth that the prospect of international cooperation is not clear at present. Due to the limitations of the Integrated assessment models (IAMs) model, it is difficult to simulate the dynamic negotiation process. Therefore, using deep learning to build a new agents based model (ABM) might can provide new theoretical support for climate negotiations. Building on the RICE-N model, this work proposed an approach to climate negotiations based on existing trade groups. Simulation results show that the scheme has a good prospect.


Unveiling Security, Privacy, and Ethical Concerns of ChatGPT

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper delves into the realm of ChatGPT, an AI-powered chatbot that utilizes topic modeling and reinforcement learning to generate natural responses. Although ChatGPT holds immense promise across various industries, such as customer service, education, mental health treatment, personal productivity, and content creation, it is essential to address its security, privacy, and ethical implications. By exploring the upgrade path from GPT-1 to GPT-4, discussing the model's features, limitations, and potential applications, this study aims to shed light on the potential risks of integrating ChatGPT into our daily lives. Focusing on security, privacy, and ethics issues, we highlight the challenges these concerns pose for widespread adoption. Finally, we analyze the open problems in these areas, calling for concerted efforts to ensure the development of secure and ethically sound large language models.


A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). This investigation underscores the importance of using a model architecture that supports the communication of prediction uncertainty and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.


Research on Inertial Navigation Technology of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles with Integrated Reinforcement Learning Algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We first define appropriate state representation and action space, and then design an adjustment mechanism based on the actions selected by the intelligent agent. The adjustment mechanism outputs the next state and reward value of the agent. Additionally, the adjustment mechanism calculates the error between the adjusted state and the unadjusted state. Furthermore, the intelligent agent stores the acquired experience samples containing states and reward values in a buffer and replays the experiences during each iteration to learn the dynamic characteristics of the environment. We name the improved algorithm as the DQM algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that the intelligent agent using our proposed algorithm effectively reduces the accumulated errors of inertial navigation in dynamic environments. Although our research provides a basis for achieving autonomous navigation of unmanned aerial vehicles, there is still room for significant optimization. Further research can include testing unmanned aerial vehicles in simulated environments, testing unmanned aerial vehicles in real-world environments, optimizing the design of reward functions, improving the algorithm workflow to enhance convergence speed and performance, and enhancing the algorithm's generalization ability.