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A Unifying Perspective on Non-Stationary Kernels for Deeper Gaussian Processes
Noack, Marcus M., Luo, Hengrui, Risser, Mark D.
The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular statistical technique for stochastic function approximation and uncertainty quantification from data. GPs have been adopted into the realm of machine learning in the last two decades because of their superior prediction abilities, especially in data-sparse scenarios, and their inherent ability to provide robust uncertainty estimates. Even so, their performance highly depends on intricate customizations of the core methodology, which often leads to dissatisfaction among practitioners when standard setups and off-the-shelf software tools are being deployed. Arguably the most important building block of a GP is the kernel function which assumes the role of a covariance operator. Stationary kernels of the Mat\'ern class are used in the vast majority of applied studies; poor prediction performance and unrealistic uncertainty quantification are often the consequences. Non-stationary kernels show improved performance but are rarely used due to their more complicated functional form and the associated effort and expertise needed to define and tune them optimally. In this perspective, we want to help ML practitioners make sense of some of the most common forms of non-stationarity for Gaussian processes. We show a variety of kernels in action using representative datasets, carefully study their properties, and compare their performances. Based on our findings, we propose a new kernel that combines some of the identified advantages of existing kernels.
STEERING: Stein Information Directed Exploration for Model-Based Reinforcement Learning
Chakraborty, Souradip, Bedi, Amrit Singh, Koppel, Alec, Wang, Mengdi, Huang, Furong, Manocha, Dinesh
Directed Exploration is a crucial challenge in reinforcement learning (RL), especially when rewards are sparse. Information-directed sampling (IDS), which optimizes the information ratio, seeks to do so by augmenting regret with information gain. However, estimating information gain is computationally intractable or relies on restrictive assumptions which prohibit its use in many practical instances. In this work, we posit an alternative exploration incentive in terms of the integral probability metric (IPM) between a current estimate of the transition model and the unknown optimal, which under suitable conditions, can be computed in closed form with the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). Based on KSD, we develop a novel algorithm \algo: \textbf{STE}in information dir\textbf{E}cted exploration for model-based \textbf{R}einforcement Learn\textbf{ING}. To enable its derivation, we develop fundamentally new variants of KSD for discrete conditional distributions. {We further establish that {\algo} archives sublinear Bayesian regret, improving upon prior learning rates of information-augmented MBRL.} Experimentally, we show that the proposed algorithm is computationally affordable and outperforms several prior approaches.
'Catch Me If You Can'-style conman exposed after decades of bizarre lies, scams: report
Royal Mail has launched the United Kingdom's first-ever drone delivery service. The service was launched on Scotland's Orkney Islands -- operating for three months with the intent to extend in the future. A man in the U.K. who claimed to be friends with former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a pilot with a multimillion-dollar trust fund, and a cruise ship captain was exposed as a decades-long conman who swindled millions of dollars from people, according to a report. Jody Francis Oliver, 45, is currently behind bars on fraud and theft charges after leading seven different lives and allegedly swindling roughly $5.6 million from people, The Times of London reported. For decades, the man reportedly took on different high-powered identities, despite being an unemployed married dad of three.
Air Force turns to video games to help prepare members for real-life combat
Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., expresses concerns about the land mysteriously being bought up surrounding Travis Air Force Base. The Air Force is helping host an esports tournament designed to help service members better prepare for complex combat situations. The Air Force is partnering with MITRE, a nonprofit national security company, for the launch of a tournament MITRE believes will help the service "better understand mission logistics choices and prioritization while under attack," according to a report from Military.com. MITRE has opened up registration to play the game "Drone Guardians," which will require teams of participants to defend a deployed airfield from enemy attacks while still maintaining the ability to launch aircraft missions. A contestant plays a computer game during the "E-Stars Seoul."
Are You Worthy of My Trust?: A Socioethical Perspective on the Impacts of Trustworthy AI Systems on the Environment and Human Society
With ubiquitous exposure of AI systems today, we believe AI development requires crucial considerations to be deemed trustworthy. While the potential of AI systems is bountiful, though, is still unknown-as are their risks. In this work, we offer a brief, high-level overview of societal impacts of AI systems. To do so, we highlight the requirement of multi-disciplinary governance and convergence throughout its lifecycle via critical systemic examinations (e.g., energy consumption), and later discuss induced effects on the environment (i.e., carbon footprint) and its users (i.e., social development). In particular, we consider these impacts from a multi-disciplinary perspective: computer science, sociology, environmental science, and so on to discuss its inter-connected societal risks and inability to simultaneously satisfy aspects of well-being. Therefore, we accentuate the necessity of holistically addressing pressing concerns of AI systems from a socioethical impact assessment perspective to explicate its harmful societal effects to truly enable humanity-centered Trustworthy AI.
ChatGPT Hallucinates when Attributing Answers
Zuccon, Guido, Koopman, Bevan, Shaik, Razia
Can ChatGPT provide evidence to support its answers? Does the evidence it suggests actually exist and does it really support its answer? We investigate these questions using a collection of domain-specific knowledge-based questions, specifically prompting ChatGPT to provide both an answer and supporting evidence in the form of references to external sources. We also investigate how different prompts impact answers and evidence. We find that ChatGPT provides correct or partially correct answers in about half of the cases (50.6% of the times), but its suggested references only exist 14% of the times. We further provide insights on the generated references that reveal common traits among the references that ChatGPT generates, and show how even if a reference provided by the model does exist, this reference often does not support the claims ChatGPT attributes to it. Our findings are important because (1) they are the first systematic analysis of the references created by ChatGPT in its answers; (2) they suggest that the model may leverage good quality information in producing correct answers, but is unable to attribute real evidence to support its answers. Prompts, raw result files and manual analysis are made publicly available.
Embrace Divergence for Richer Insights: A Multi-document Summarization Benchmark and a Case Study on Summarizing Diverse Information from News Articles
Huang, Kung-Hsiang, Laban, Philippe, Fabbri, Alexander R., Choubey, Prafulla Kumar, Joty, Shafiq, Xiong, Caiming, Wu, Chien-Sheng
Previous research in multi-document news summarization has typically concentrated on collating information that all sources agree upon. However, to our knowledge, the summarization of diverse information dispersed across multiple articles about an event has not been previously investigated. The latter imposes a different set of challenges for a summarization model. In this paper, we propose a new task of summarizing diverse information encountered in multiple news articles encompassing the same event. To facilitate this task, we outlined a data collection schema for identifying diverse information and curated a dataset named DiverseSumm. The dataset includes 245 news stories, with each story comprising 10 news articles and paired with a human-validated reference. Moreover, we conducted a comprehensive analysis to pinpoint the position and verbosity biases when utilizing Large Language Model (LLM)-based metrics for evaluating the coverage and faithfulness of the summaries, as well as their correlation with human assessments. We applied our findings to study how LLMs summarize multiple news articles by analyzing which type of diverse information LLMs are capable of identifying. Our analyses suggest that despite the extraordinary capabilities of LLMs in single-document summarization, the proposed task remains a complex challenge for them mainly due to their limited coverage, with GPT-4 only able to cover less than 40% of the diverse information on average.
Leveraging Social Discourse to Measure Check-worthiness of Claims for Fact-checking
Sundriyal, Megha, Akhtar, Md Shad, Chakraborty, Tanmoy
The expansion of online social media platforms has led to a surge in online content consumption. However, this has also paved the way for disseminating false claims and misinformation. As a result, there is an escalating demand for a substantial workforce to sift through and validate such unverified claims. Currently, these claims are manually verified by fact-checkers. Still, the volume of online content often outweighs their potency, making it difficult for them to validate every single claim in a timely manner. Thus, it is critical to determine which assertions are worth fact-checking and prioritize claims that require immediate attention. Multiple factors contribute to determining whether a claim necessitates fact-checking, encompassing factors such as its factual correctness, potential impact on the public, the probability of inciting hatred, and more. Despite several efforts to address claim check-worthiness, a systematic approach to identify these factors remains an open challenge. To this end, we introduce a new task of fine-grained claim check-worthiness, which underpins all of these factors and provides probable human grounds for identifying a claim as check-worthy. We present CheckIt, a manually annotated large Twitter dataset for fine-grained claim check-worthiness. We benchmark our dataset against a unified approach, CheckMate, that jointly determines whether a claim is check-worthy and the factors that led to that conclusion. We compare our suggested system with several baseline systems. Finally, we report a thorough analysis of results and human assessment, validating the efficacy of integrating check-worthiness factors in detecting claims worth fact-checking.
Staged Contact Optimization: Combining Contact-Implicit and Multi-Phase Hybrid Trajectory Optimization
Turski, Michael R., Norby, Joseph, Johnson, Aaron M.
Trajectory optimization problems for legged robots are commonly formulated with fixed contact schedules. These multi-phase Hybrid Trajectory Optimization (HTO) methods result in locally optimal trajectories, but the result depends heavily upon the predefined contact mode sequence. Contact-Implicit Optimization (CIO) offers a potential solution to this issue by allowing the contact mode to be determined throughout the trajectory by the optimization solver. However, CIO suffers from long solve times and convergence issues. This work combines the benefits of these two methods into one algorithm: Staged Contact Optimization (SCO). SCO tightens constraints on contact in stages, eventually fixing them to allow robust and fast convergence to a feasible solution. Results on a planar biped and spatial quadruped demonstrate speed and optimality improvements over CIO and HTO. These properties make SCO well suited for offline trajectory generation or as an effective tool for exploring the dynamic capabilities of a robot.
The Projected Covariance Measure for assumption-lean variable significance testing
Lundborg, Anton Rask, Kim, Ilmun, Shah, Rajen D., Samworth, Richard J.
Testing the significance of a variable or group of variables $X$ for predicting a response $Y$, given additional covariates $Z$, is a ubiquitous task in statistics. A simple but common approach is to specify a linear model, and then test whether the regression coefficient for $X$ is non-zero. However, when the model is misspecified, the test may have poor power, for example when $X$ is involved in complex interactions, or lead to many false rejections. In this work we study the problem of testing the model-free null of conditional mean independence, i.e. that the conditional mean of $Y$ given $X$ and $Z$ does not depend on $X$. We propose a simple and general framework that can leverage flexible nonparametric or machine learning methods, such as additive models or random forests, to yield both robust error control and high power. The procedure involves using these methods to perform regressions, first to estimate a form of projection of $Y$ on $X$ and $Z$ using one half of the data, and then to estimate the expected conditional covariance between this projection and $Y$ on the remaining half of the data. While the approach is general, we show that a version of our procedure using spline regression achieves what we show is the minimax optimal rate in this nonparametric testing problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach both in terms of maintaining Type I error control, and power, compared to several existing approaches.