Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject to ongoing research. So far, works with sharp bounds are restricted to fairly simple settings (e.g., a single binary treatment). In this paper, we propose a unified framework for causal sensitivity analysis under unobserved confounding in various settings. For this, we propose a flexible generalization of the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) and then derive sharp bounds for a large class of causal effects. This includes (conditional) average treatment effects, effects for mediation analysis and path analysis, and distributional effects. Furthermore, our sensitivity model is applicable to discrete, continuous, and time-varying treatments. It allows us to interpret the partial identification problem under unobserved confounding as a distribution shift in the latent confounders while evaluating the causal effect of interest. In the special case of a single binary treatment, our bounds for (conditional) average treatment effects coincide with recent optimality results for causal sensitivity analysis. Finally, we propose a scalable algorithm to estimate our sharp bounds from observational data.

The explosive growth of cyber attacks nowadays, such as malware, spam, and intrusions, caused severe consequences on society. Securing cyberspace has become an utmost concern for organizations and governments. Traditional Machine Learning (ML) based methods are extensively used in detecting cyber threats, but they hardly model the correlations between real-world cyber entities. In recent years, with the proliferation of graph mining techniques, many researchers investigated these techniques for capturing correlations between cyber entities and achieving high performance. It is imperative to summarize existing graph-based cybersecurity solutions to provide a guide for future studies. Therefore, as a key contribution of this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of graph mining for cybersecurity, including an overview of cybersecurity tasks, the typical graph mining techniques, and the general process of applying them to cybersecurity, as well as various solutions for different cybersecurity tasks. For each task, we probe into relevant methods and highlight the graph types, graph approaches, and task levels in their modeling. Furthermore, we collect open datasets and toolkits for graph-based cybersecurity. Finally, we outlook the potential directions of this field for future research.

Despite the recent success achieved by several two-stage prototypical networks in few-shot named entity recognition (NER) task, the overdetected false spans at the span detection stage and the inaccurate and unstable prototypes at the type classification stage remain to be challenging problems. In this paper, we propose a novel Type-Aware Decomposed framework, namely TadNER, to solve these problems. We first present a type-aware span filtering strategy to filter out false spans by removing those semantically far away from type names. We then present a type-aware contrastive learning strategy to construct more accurate and stable prototypes by jointly exploiting support samples and type names as references. Extensive experiments on various benchmarks prove that our proposed TadNER framework yields a new state-of-the-art performance. Our code and data will be available at https://github.com/NLPWM-WHU/TadNER.

Variational quantum algorithms represent a promising approach to quantum machine learning where classical neural networks are replaced by parametrized quantum circuits. However, both approaches suffer from a clear limitation, that is a lack of interpretability. Here, we present a variational method to quantize projective simulation (PS), a reinforcement learning model aimed at interpretable artificial intelligence. Decision making in PS is modeled as a random walk on a graph describing the agent's memory. To implement the quantized model, we consider quantum walks of single photons in a lattice of tunable Mach-Zehnder interferometers trained via variational algorithms. Using an example from transfer learning, we show that the quantized PS model can exploit quantum interference to acquire capabilities beyond those of its classical counterpart. Finally, we discuss the role of quantum interference for training and tracing the decision making process, paving the way for realizations of interpretable quantum learning agents.

Climate change is expected to aggravate wildfire activity through the exacerbation of fire weather. Improving our capabilities to anticipate wildfires on a global scale is of uttermost importance for mitigating their negative effects. In this work, we create a global fire dataset and demonstrate a prototype for predicting the presence of global burned areas on a sub-seasonal scale with the use of segmentation deep learning models. Particularly, we present an open-access global analysis-ready datacube, which contains a variety of variables related to the seasonal and sub-seasonal fire drivers (climate, vegetation, oceanic indices, human-related variables), as well as the historical burned areas and wildfire emissions for 2001-2021. We train a deep learning model, which treats global wildfire forecasting as an image segmentation task and skillfully predicts the presence of burned areas 8, 16, 32 and 64 days ahead of time. Our work motivates the use of deep learning for global burned area forecasting and paves the way towards improved anticipation of global wildfire patterns.

We present an empirical dataset surveying the deep learning phenomenon on fully-connected feed-forward multilayer perceptron neural networks. The dataset, which is now freely available online, records the per-epoch training and generalization performance of 483 thousand distinct hyperparameter choices of architectures, tasks, depths, network sizes (number of parameters), learning rates, batch sizes, and regularization penalties. Repeating each experiment an average of 24 times resulted in 11 million total training runs and 40 billion epochs recorded. Accumulating this 1.7 TB dataset utilized 11 thousand CPU core-years, 72.3 GPU-years, and 163 node-years. In surveying the dataset, we observe durable patterns persisting across tasks and topologies. We aim to spark scientific study of machine learning techniques as a catalyst for the theoretical discoveries needed to progress the field beyond energy-intensive and heuristic practices.

Soil moisture is one of the primary hydrological state (memory) variables in terrestrial systems (Dobriyal et al. 2012; Rossato et al. 2017a), and is one of the primary controls for agriculture and water management (Dobriyal et al. 2012; Rossato et al. 2017b). Soil moisture affects evapotranspiration and vegetation water availability, which are at the core of the climate-carbon cycle (Falloon et al. 2011) and play an important role in hydrological risks such as floods, drought, erosion, and landslides (Kim et al. 2019; Legates et al. 2011; Tramblay et al. 2012). Accurate measurement of soil moisture has numerous downstream benefits (Moran et al. 2015) including reduced water wastage by better understanding and managing the consumption of water (Brocca et al. 2018; Foster, Mieno, and Brozović 2020), utilising smarter irrigation methods (Kumar et al. 2014) and effective canal water management (Zafar, Prathapar, and Bastiaanssen 2021). The most accurate way to measure soil moisture is via ground-based methods such as direct gravimetric measurements (Klute 1986) or indirect methods such as dielectric reflectometry, capacitance charge, etc. (Bittelli 2011), which in-situ sensors utilize (Walker, Willgoose, and Kalma 2004). However, in-situ sensors are difficult to scale spatially, and are expensive to install and maintain.

We present counterfactual situation testing (CST), a causal data mining framework for detecting discrimination in classifiers. CST aims to answer in an actionable and meaningful way the intuitive question "what would have been the model outcome had the individual, or complainant, been of a different protected status?" It extends the legally-grounded situation testing of Thanh et al. (2011) by operationalizing the notion of fairness given the difference using counterfactual reasoning. For any complainant, we find and compare similar protected and non-protected instances in the dataset used by the classifier to construct a control and test group, where a difference between the decision outcomes of the two groups implies potential individual discrimination. Unlike situation testing, which builds both groups around the complainant, we build the test group on the complainant's counterfactual generated using causal knowledge. The counterfactual is intended to reflect how the protected attribute when changed affects the seemingly neutral attributes used by the classifier, which is taken for granted in many frameworks for discrimination. Under CST, we compare similar individuals within each group but dissimilar individuals across both groups due to the possible difference between the complainant and its counterfactual. Evaluating our framework on two classification scenarios, we show that it uncovers a greater number of cases than situation testing, even when the classifier satisfies the counterfactual fairness condition of Kusner et al. (2017).

Signed networks are frequently observed in real life with additional sign information associated with each edge, yet such information has been largely ignored in existing network models. This paper develops a unified embedding model for signed networks to disentangle the intertwined balance structure and anomaly effect, which can greatly facilitate the downstream analysis, including community detection, anomaly detection, and network inference. The proposed model captures both balance structure and anomaly effect through a low rank plus sparse matrix decomposition, which are jointly estimated via a regularized formulation. Its theoretical guarantees are established in terms of asymptotic consistency and finite-sample probability bounds for network embedding, community detection and anomaly detection. The advantage of the proposed embedding model is also demonstrated through extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic networks and an international relation network.

The world's fourth industrial revolution is ushering in big shifts in the workplace. Professor Steven Dhondt has a reassurance of sorts for people in the EU worried about losing their jobs to automation: relax. Dhondt, an expert in work and organisational change at the Catholic University Leuven in Belgium, has studied the impact of technology on jobs for the past four decades. Fresh from leading an EU research project on the issue, he stresses opportunities rather than threats. 'We need to develop new business practices and welfare support but, with the right vision, we shouldn't see technology as a threat,' Dhondt said.