As language technologies gain prominence in real-world settings, it is important to understand how changes to language affect reader perceptions. This can be formalized as the causal effect of varying a linguistic attribute (e.g., sentiment) on a reader's response to the text. In this paper, we introduce Text-Transport, a method for estimation of causal effects from natural language under any text distribution. Current approaches for valid causal effect estimation require strong assumptions about the data, meaning the data from which one can estimate valid causal effects often is not representative of the actual target domain of interest. To address this issue, we leverage the notion of distribution shift to describe an estimator that transports causal effects between domains, bypassing the need for strong assumptions in the target domain. We derive statistical guarantees on the uncertainty of this estimator, and we report empirical results and analyses that support the validity of Text-Transport across data settings. Finally, we use Text-Transport to study a realistic setting--hate speech on social media--in which causal effects do shift significantly between text domains, demonstrating the necessity of transport when conducting causal inference on natural language.

AI developers often apply safety alignment procedures to prevent the misuse of their AI systems. For example, before Meta released Llama 2-Chat, a collection of instruction fine-tuned large language models, they invested heavily in safety training, incorporating extensive red-teaming and reinforcement learning from human feedback. However, it remains unclear how well safety training guards against model misuse when attackers have access to model weights. We explore the robustness of safety training in language models by subversively fine-tuning the public weights of Llama 2-Chat. We employ low-rank adaptation (LoRA) as an efficient fine-tuning method. With a budget of less than $200 per model and using only one GPU, we successfully undo the safety training of Llama 2-Chat models of sizes 7B, 13B, and 70B. Specifically, our fine-tuning technique significantly reduces the rate at which the model refuses to follow harmful instructions. We achieve a refusal rate below 1% for our 70B Llama 2-Chat model on two refusal benchmarks. Our fine-tuning method retains general performance, which we validate by comparing our fine-tuned models against Llama 2-Chat across two benchmarks. Additionally, we present a selection of harmful outputs produced by our models. While there is considerable uncertainty about the scope of risks from current models, it is likely that future models will have significantly more dangerous capabilities, including the ability to hack into critical infrastructure, create dangerous bio-weapons, or autonomously replicate and adapt to new environments. We show that subversive fine-tuning is practical and effective, and hence argue that evaluating risks from fine-tuning should be a core part of risk assessments for releasing model weights.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the most momentous technologies of our time. Thus, it is of major importance to know which stakeholders influence AI research. Besides researchers at universities and colleges, researchers in companies have hardly been considered in this context. In this article, we consider how the influence of companies on AI research can be made measurable on the basis of scientific publishing activities. We compare academic- and company-authored AI publications published in the last decade and use scientometric data from multiple scholarly databases to look for differences across these groups and to disclose the top contributing organizations. While the vast majority of publications is still produced by academia, we find that the citation count an individual publication receives is significantly higher when it is (co-)authored by a company. Furthermore, using a variety of altmetric indicators, we notice that publications with company participation receive considerably more attention online. Finally, we place our analysis results in a broader context and present targeted recommendations to safeguard a harmonious balance between academia and industry in the realm of AI research.

Argument generation is a challenging task in natural language processing, which requires rigorous reasoning and proper content organization. Inspired by recent chain-of-thought prompting that breaks down a complex task into intermediate steps, we propose Americano, a novel framework with agent interaction for argument generation. Our approach decomposes the generation process into sequential actions grounded on argumentation theory, which first executes actions sequentially to generate argumentative discourse components, and then produces a final argument conditioned on the components. To further mimic the human writing process and improve the left-to-right generation paradigm of current autoregressive language models, we introduce an argument refinement module which automatically evaluates and refines argument drafts based on feedback received. We evaluate our framework on the task of counterargument generation using a subset of Reddit/CMV dataset. The results show that our method outperforms both end-to-end and chain-of-thought prompting methods and can generate more coherent and persuasive arguments with diverse and rich contents.

Temporal relation classification is a pair-wise task for identifying the relation of a temporal link (TLINK) between two mentions, i.e. event, time, and document creation time (DCT). It leads to two crucial limits: 1) Two TLINKs involving a common mention do not share information. 2) Existing models with independent classifiers for each TLINK category (E2E, E2T, and E2D) hinder from using the whole data. This paper presents an event centric model that allows to manage dynamic event representations across multiple TLINKs. Our model deals with three TLINK categories with multi-task learning to leverage the full size of data. The experimental results show that our proposal outperforms state-of-the-art models and two transfer learning baselines on both the English and Japanese data.

The emergence of deep learning has yielded noteworthy advancements in time series forecasting (TSF). Transformer architectures, in particular, have witnessed broad utilization and adoption in TSF tasks. Transformers have proven to be the most successful solution to extract the semantic correlations among the elements within a long sequence. Various variants have enabled transformer architecture to effectively handle long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. In this article, we first present a comprehensive overview of transformer architectures and their subsequent enhancements developed to address various LTSF tasks. Then, we summarize the publicly available LTSF datasets and relevant evaluation metrics. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights into the best practices and techniques for effectively training transformers in the context of time-series analysis. Lastly, we propose potential research directions in this rapidly evolving field.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited impressive generation capabilities, but they suffer from hallucinations when solely relying on their internal knowledge, especially when answering questions that require less commonly known information. Retrieval-augmented LLMs have emerged as a potential solution to ground LLMs in external knowledge. Nonetheless, recent approaches have primarily emphasized retrieval from unstructured text corpora, owing to its seamless integration into prompts. When using structured data such as knowledge graphs, most methods simplify it into natural text, neglecting the underlying structures. Moreover, a significant gap in the current landscape is the absence of a realistic benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of grounding LLMs on heterogeneous knowledge sources (e.g., knowledge base and text). To fill this gap, we have curated a comprehensive dataset that poses two unique challenges: (1) Two-hop multi-source questions that require retrieving information from both open-domain structured and unstructured knowledge sources; retrieving information from structured knowledge sources is a critical component in correctly answering the questions. (2) The generation of symbolic queries (e.g., SPARQL for Wikidata) is a key requirement, which adds another layer of challenge. Our dataset is created using a combination of automatic generation through predefined reasoning chains and human annotation. We also introduce a novel approach that leverages multiple retrieval tools, including text passage retrieval and symbolic language-assisted retrieval. Our model outperforms previous approaches by a significant margin, demonstrating its effectiveness in addressing the above-mentioned reasoning challenges.

Thorough analysis of local droplet-level interactions is crucial to better understand the microphysical processes in clouds and their effect on the global climate. High-accuracy simulations of relevant droplet size distributions from Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of bin microphysics challenge current analysis techniques due to their high dimensionality involving three spatial dimensions, time, and a continuous range of droplet sizes. Utilizing the compact latent representations from Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), we produce novel and intuitive visualizations for the organization of droplet sizes and their evolution over time beyond what is possible with clustering techniques. This greatly improves interpretation and allows us to examine aerosol-cloud interactions by contrasting simulations with different aerosol concentrations. We find that the evolution of the droplet spectrum is similar across aerosol levels but occurs at different paces. This similarity suggests that precipitation initiation processes are alike despite variations in onset times.

Human commonsense understanding of the physical and social world is organized around intuitive theories. These theories support making causal and moral judgments. When something bad happens, we naturally ask: who did what, and why? A rich literature in cognitive science has studied people's causal and moral intuitions. This work has revealed a number of factors that systematically influence people's judgments, such as the violation of norms and whether the harm is avoidable or inevitable. We collected a dataset of stories from 24 cognitive science papers and developed a system to annotate each story with the factors they investigated. Using this dataset, we test whether large language models (LLMs) make causal and moral judgments about text-based scenarios that align with those of human participants. On the aggregate level, alignment has improved with more recent LLMs. However, using statistical analyses, we find that LLMs weigh the different factors quite differently from human participants. These results show how curated, challenge datasets combined with insights from cognitive science can help us go beyond comparisons based merely on aggregate metrics: we uncover LLMs implicit tendencies and show to what extent these align with human intuitions.

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) have emerged as fundamental platforms for powering intelligent decision-making and a wide range of Artificial Intelligence (AI) services across major corporations such as Google, Walmart, and AirBnb. KGs complement Machine Learning (ML) algorithms by providing data context and semantics, thereby enabling further inference and question-answering capabilities. The integration of KGs with neuronal learning (e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs)) is currently a topic of active research, commonly named neuro-symbolic AI. Despite the numerous benefits that can be accomplished with KG-based AI, its growing ubiquity within online services may result in the loss of self-determination for citizens as a fundamental societal issue. The more we rely on these technologies, which are often centralised, the less citizens will be able to determine their own destinies. To counter this threat, AI regulation, such as the European Union (EU) AI Act, is being proposed in certain regions. The regulation sets what technologists need to do, leading to questions concerning: How can the output of AI systems be trusted? What is needed to ensure that the data fuelling and the inner workings of these artefacts are transparent? How can AI be made accountable for its decision-making? This paper conceptualises the foundational topics and research pillars to support KG-based AI for self-determination. Drawing upon this conceptual framework, challenges and opportunities for citizen self-determination are illustrated and analysed in a real-world scenario. As a result, we propose a research agenda aimed at accomplishing the recommended objectives.