Shortly after closing the U.K.'s landmark AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park, the cradle of modern computing, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak headed back to London to interview tech billionaire Elon Musk. The pair discussed risks posed by artificial intelligence, how governments should address them, and how the technology might impact jobs, with Musk predicting that it could render most roles obsolete. The interview could have been tense, given that hours earlier, Musk, who has in the past endorsed the idea of slowing AI development to assess the risks, tweeted a cartoon mocking political leaders professing to take risks from AI seriously at the Summit. But the atmosphere at the event on Thursday night was amiable, with Sunak thanking Musk for attending the event and Musk thanking Sunak for hosting it. "I'm glad to see at this point that people are taking safety seriously, and I'd like to say thank you for holding this AI safety conference," said Musk. "I think actually it will go down in history as being very important, I think it's really quite profound."

In an event following the UK's AI Safety Summit, entrepreneur Elon Musk spoke with UK prime minister Rishi Sunak about future AIs most likely being "a force for good" and someday enabling a "future of abundance". That utopian narrative about a future superhuman AI – one that Musk claims would eliminate the need for human work and even provide meaningful companionship – shaped much of the conversation between the pair. But their conversation's focus on an "age of abundance" glossed over the current negative impacts and controversies surrounding the tech industry's race to develop large AI models – and did not get into specifics on how governments should regulate AI and address real-world risks. "I think we are seeing the most disruptive force in history here, where we will have for the first time something that is smarter than the smartest human," said Musk. "There will come a point when no job is needed – you can have a job if you want for personal satisfaction, but the AI will be able to do everything." Musk also acknowledged his longstanding position of frequently warning about the existential risks that superhuman AI could pose to humanity in the future.

Sampling a target probability distribution with an unknown normalization constant is a fundamental challenge in computational science and engineering. Recent work shows that algorithms derived by considering gradient flows in the space of probability measures open up new avenues for algorithm development. This paper makes three contributions to this sampling approach by scrutinizing the design components of such gradient flows. Any instantiation of a gradient flow for sampling needs an energy functional and a metric to determine the flow, as well as numerical approximations of the flow to derive algorithms. Our first contribution is to show that the Kullback-Leibler divergence, as an energy functional, has the unique property (among all f-divergences) that gradient flows resulting from it do not depend on the normalization constant of the target distribution. Our second contribution is to study the choice of metric from the perspective of invariance. The Fisher-Rao metric is known as the unique choice (up to scaling) that is diffeomorphism invariant. As a computationally tractable alternative, we introduce a relaxed, affine invariance property for the metrics and gradient flows. In particular, we construct various affine invariant Wasserstein and Stein gradient flows. Affine invariant gradient flows are shown to behave more favorably than their non-affine-invariant counterparts when sampling highly anisotropic distributions, in theory and by using particle methods. Our third contribution is to study, and develop efficient algorithms based on Gaussian approximations of the gradient flows; this leads to an alternative to particle methods. We establish connections between various Gaussian approximate gradient flows, discuss their relation to gradient methods arising from parametric variational inference, and study their convergence properties both theoretically and numerically.

Most applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are designed for a confined and specific task. However, there are many scenarios that call for a more general AI, capable of solving a wide array of tasks without being specifically designed for them. The term General-Purpose Artificial Intelligence Systems (GPAIS) has been defined to refer to these AI systems. To date, the possibility of an Artificial General Intelligence, powerful enough to perform any intellectual task as if it were human, or even improve it, has remained an aspiration, fiction, and considered a risk for our society. Whilst we might still be far from achieving that, GPAIS is a reality and sitting at the forefront of AI research. This work discusses existing definitions for GPAIS and proposes a new definition that allows for a gradual differentiation among types of GPAIS according to their properties and limitations. We distinguish between closed-world and open-world GPAIS, characterising their degree of autonomy and ability based on several factors such as adaptation to new tasks, competence in domains not intentionally trained for, ability to learn from few data, or proactive acknowledgment of their own limitations. We propose a taxonomy of approaches to realise GPAIS, describing research trends such as the use of AI techniques to improve another AI (AI-powered AI) or (single) foundation models. As a prime example, we delve into GenAI, aligning them with the concepts presented in the taxonomy. We explore multi-modality, which involves fusing various types of data sources to expand the capabilities of GPAIS. Through the proposed definition and taxonomy, our aim is to facilitate research collaboration across different areas that are tackling general purpose tasks, as they share many common aspects. Finally, we discuss the state of GPAIS, prospects, societal implications, and the need for regulation and governance.

The impacts of mass migration, such as crisis induced by climate change, extend beyond environmental concerns and can greatly affect social infrastructure and public services, such as education, healthcare, and security. These crises exacerbate certain elements like cultural barriers, and discrimination by amplifying the challenges faced by these affected communities. This paper proposes an innovative approach to address migration crises in the context of crisis management through a combination of modeling and imbalance assessment tools. By employing deep learning for forecasting and integrating causal reasoning via Bayesian networks, this methodology enables the evaluation of imbalances and risks in the socio-technological landscape, providing crucial insights for informed decision-making. Through this framework, critical systems can be analyzed to understand how fluctuations in migration levels may impact them, facilitating effective crisis governance strategies.

The development and regulation of multi-purpose, large "foundation models" of AI seems to have reached a critical stage, with major investments and new applications announced every other day. Some experts are calling for a moratorium on the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4. Legislators globally compete to set the blueprint for a new regulatory regime. This paper analyses the most advanced legal proposal, the European Union's AI Act currently in the stage of final "trilogue" negotiations between the EU institutions. This legislation will likely have extra-territorial implications, sometimes called "the Brussels effect". It also constitutes a radical departure from conventional information and communications technology policy by regulating AI ex-ante through a risk-based approach that seeks to prevent certain harmful outcomes based on product safety principles. We offer a review and critique, specifically discussing the AI Act's problematic obligations regarding data quality and human oversight. Our proposal is to take liability seriously as the key regulatory mechanism. This signals to industry that if a breach of law occurs, firms are required to know in particular what their inputs were and how to retrain the system to remedy the breach. Moreover, we suggest differentiating between endogenous and exogenous sources of potential harm, which can be mitigated by carefully allocating liability between developers and deployers of AI technology.

Snow Water-Equivalent (SWE) -- the amount of water available if snowpack is melted -- is a key decision variable used by water management agencies to make irrigation, flood control, power generation and drought management decisions. SWE values vary spatiotemporally -- affected by weather, topography and other environmental factors. While daily SWE can be measured by Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations with requisite instrumentation, such stations are spatially sparse requiring interpolation techniques to create spatiotemporally complete data. While recent efforts have explored machine learning (ML) for SWE prediction, a number of recent ML advances have yet to be considered. The main contribution of this paper is to explore one such ML advance, attention mechanisms, for SWE prediction. Our hypothesis is that attention has a unique ability to capture and exploit correlations that may exist across locations or the temporal spectrum (or both). We present a generic attention-based modeling framework for SWE prediction and adapt it to capture spatial attention and temporal attention. Our experimental results on 323 SNOTEL stations in the Western U.S. demonstrate that our attention-based models outperform other machine learning approaches. We also provide key results highlighting the differences between spatial and temporal attention in this context and a roadmap toward deployment for generating spatially-complete SWE maps.

While a substantial amount of work has recently been devoted to enhance the performance of computational Authorship Identification (AId) systems, little to no attention has been paid to endowing AId systems with the ability to explain the reasons behind their predictions. This lacking substantially hinders the practical employment of AId methodologies, since the predictions returned by such systems are hardly useful unless they are supported with suitable explanations. In this paper, we explore the applicability of existing general-purpose eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques to AId, with a special focus on explanations addressed to scholars working in cultural heritage. In particular, we assess the relative merits of three different types of XAI techniques (feature ranking, probing, factuals and counterfactual selection) on three different AId tasks (authorship attribution, authorship verification, same-authorship verification) by running experiments on real AId data. Our analysis shows that, while these techniques make important first steps towards explainable Authorship Identification, more work remains to be done in order to provide tools that can be profitably integrated in the workflows of scholars.

Transfer learning enables the sharing of common knowledge among models for a variety of downstream tasks, but traditional methods suffer in limited training data settings and produce narrow models incapable of effectively generalizing under distribution shifts. Foundation models have recently demonstrated impressive zero-shot inference capabilities and robustness under distribution shifts. However, zero-shot evaluation for these models has been predominantly confined to benchmarks with simple distribution shifts, limiting our understanding of their effectiveness under the more realistic shifts found in practice. Moreover, common fine-tuning methods for these models have yet to be evaluated against vision models in few-shot scenarios where training data is limited. To address these gaps, we present a new recipe for few-shot fine-tuning of the popular vision-language foundation model CLIP and evaluate its performance on challenging benchmark datasets with realistic distribution shifts from the WILDS collection. Our experimentation demonstrates that, while zero-shot CLIP fails to match performance of trained vision models on more complex benchmarks, few-shot CLIP fine-tuning outperforms its vision-only counterparts in terms of in-distribution and out-of-distribution accuracy at all levels of training data availability. This provides a strong incentive for adoption of foundation models within few-shot learning applications operating with real-world data. Code is available at https://github.com/mit-ll/robust-vision-language-finetuning

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a technique for sample-efficient black-box optimization that employs probabilistic models to identify promising input locations for evaluation. When dealing with composite-structured functions, such as f=g o h, evaluating a specific location x yields observations of both the final outcome f(x) = g(h(x)) as well as the intermediate output(s) h(x). Previous research has shown that integrating information from these intermediate outputs can enhance BO performance substantially. However, existing methods struggle if the outputs h(x) are high-dimensional. Many relevant problems fall into this setting, including in the context of generative AI, molecular design, or robotics. To effectively tackle these challenges, we introduce Joint Composite Latent Space Bayesian Optimization (JoCo), a novel framework that jointly trains neural network encoders and probabilistic models to adaptively compress high-dimensional input and output spaces into manageable latent representations. This enables viable BO on these compressed representations, allowing JoCo to outperform other state-of-the-art methods in high-dimensional BO on a wide variety of simulated and real-world problems.