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Modeling Systemic Risk: A Time-Varying Nonparametric Causal Inference Framework
Etesami, Jalal, Habibnia, Ali, Kiyavash, Negar
We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.
Understanding News Creation Intents: Frame, Dataset, and Method
Wang, Zhengjia, Wang, Danding, Sheng, Qiang, Cao, Juan, Su, Silong, Sun, Yifan, Hu, Beizhe, Ma, Siyuan
As the disruptive changes in the media economy and the proliferation of alternative news media outlets, news intent has progressively deviated from ethical standards that serve the public interest. News intent refers to the purpose or intention behind the creation of a news article. While the significance of research on news intent has been widely acknowledged, the absence of a systematic news intent understanding framework hinders further exploration of news intent and its downstream applications. To bridge this gap, we propose News INTent (NINT) frame, the first component-aware formalism for understanding the news creation intent based on research in philosophy, psychology, and cognitive science. Within this frame, we define the news intent identification task and provide a benchmark dataset with fine-grained labels along with an efficient benchmark method. Experiments demonstrate that NINT is beneficial in both the intent identification task and downstream tasks that demand a profound understanding of news. This work marks a foundational step towards a more systematic exploration of news creation intents.
RoboFiSense: Attention-Based Robotic Arm Activity Recognition with WiFi Sensing
Zandi, Rojin, Behzad, Kian, Motamedi, Elaheh, Salehinejad, Hojjat, Siami, Milad
Despite the current surge of interest in autonomous robotic systems, robot activity recognition within restricted indoor environments remains a formidable challenge. Conventional methods for detecting and recognizing robotic arms' activities often rely on vision-based or light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors, which require line-of-sight (LoS) access and may raise privacy concerns, for example, in nursing facilities. This research pioneers an innovative approach harnessing channel state information (CSI) measured from WiFi signals, subtly influenced by the activity of robotic arms. We developed an attention-based network to classify eight distinct activities performed by a Franka Emika robotic arm in different situations. Our proposed bidirectional vision transformer-concatenated (BiVTC) methodology aspires to predict robotic arm activities accurately, even when trained on activities with different velocities, all without dependency on external or internal sensors or visual aids. Considering the high dependency of CSI data to the environment, motivated us to study the problem of sniffer location selection, by systematically changing the sniffer's location and collecting different sets of data. Finally, this paper also marks the first publication of the CSI data of eight distinct robotic arm activities, collectively referred to as RoboFiSense. This initiative aims to provide a benchmark dataset and baselines to the research community, fostering advancements in the field of robotics sensing.
Micro-Macro Consistency in Multiscale Modeling: Score-Based Model Assisted Sampling of Fast/Slow Dynamical Systems
Crabtree, Ellis R., Bello-Rivas, Juan M., Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.
A valuable step in the modeling of multiscale dynamical systems in fields such as computational chemistry, biology, materials science and more, is the representative sampling of the phase space over long timescales of interest; this task is not, however, without challenges. For example, the long term behavior of a system with many degrees of freedom often cannot be efficiently computationally explored by direct dynamical simulation; such systems can often become trapped in local free energy minima. In the study of physics-based multi-time-scale dynamical systems, techniques have been developed for enhancing sampling in order to accelerate exploration beyond free energy barriers. On the other hand, in the field of Machine Learning, a generic goal of generative models is to sample from a target density, after training on empirical samples from this density. Score based generative models (SGMs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art capabilities in generating plausible data from target training distributions. Conditional implementations of such generative models have been shown to exhibit significant parallels with long-established -- and physics based -- solutions to enhanced sampling. These physics-based methods can then be enhanced through coupling with the ML generative models, complementing the strengths and mitigating the weaknesses of each technique. In this work, we show that that SGMs can be used in such a coupling framework to improve sampling in multiscale dynamical systems.
Russo-Ukrainian War: Prediction and explanation of Twitter suspension
Shevtsov, Alexander, Antonakaki, Despoina, Lamprou, Ioannis, Kontogiorgakis, Ioannis, Pratikakis, Polyvios, Ioannidis, Sotiris
On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, starting what is now known as the Russo-Ukrainian War, initiating an online discourse on social media. Twitter as one of the most popular SNs, with an open and democratic character, enables a transparent discussion among its large user base. Unfortunately, this often leads to Twitter's policy violations, propaganda, abusive actions, civil integrity violation, and consequently to user accounts' suspension and deletion. This study focuses on the Twitter suspension mechanism and the analysis of shared content and features of the user accounts that may lead to this. Toward this goal, we have obtained a dataset containing 107.7M tweets, originating from 9.8 million users, using Twitter API. We extract the categories of shared content of the suspended accounts and explain their characteristics, through the extraction of text embeddings in junction with cosine similarity clustering. Our results reveal scam campaigns taking advantage of trending topics regarding the Russia-Ukrainian conflict for Bitcoin and Ethereum fraud, spam, and advertisement campaigns. Additionally, we apply a machine learning methodology including a SHapley Additive explainability model to understand and explain how user accounts get suspended.
What can Large Language Models do in chemistry? A comprehensive benchmark on eight tasks
Guo, Taicheng, Guo, Kehan, Nan, Bozhao, Liang, Zhenwen, Guo, Zhichun, Chawla, Nitesh V., Wiest, Olaf, Zhang, Xiangliang
Large Language Models (LLMs) with strong abilities in natural language processing tasks have emerged and have been applied in various kinds of areas such as science, finance and software engineering. However, the capability of LLMs to advance the field of chemistry remains unclear. In this paper, rather than pursuing state-of-the-art performance, we aim to evaluate capabilities of LLMs in a wide range of tasks across the chemistry domain. We identify three key chemistry-related capabilities including understanding, reasoning and explaining to explore in LLMs and establish a benchmark containing eight chemistry tasks. Our analysis draws on widely recognized datasets facilitating a broad exploration of the capacities of LLMs within the context of practical chemistry. Five LLMs (GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Davinci-003, Llama and Galactica) are evaluated for each chemistry task in zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning settings with carefully selected demonstration examples and specially crafted prompts. Our investigation found that GPT-4 outperformed other models and LLMs exhibit different competitive levels in eight chemistry tasks. In addition to the key findings from the comprehensive benchmark analysis, our work provides insights into the limitation of current LLMs and the impact of in-context learning settings on LLMs' performance across various chemistry tasks. The code and datasets used in this study are available at https://github.com/ChemFoundationModels/ChemLLMBench.
Designing Discontinuities
Ferwana, Ibtihal, Park, Suyoung, Wu, Ting-Yi, Varshney, Lav R.
Discontinuities can be fairly arbitrary but also cause a significant impact on outcomes in larger systems. Indeed, their arbitrariness is why they have been used to infer causal relationships among variables in numerous settings. Regression discontinuity from econometrics assumes the existence of a discontinuous variable that splits the population into distinct partitions to estimate the causal effects of a given phenomenon. Here we consider the design of partitions for a given discontinuous variable to optimize a certain effect previously studied using regression discontinuity. To do so, we propose a quantization-theoretic approach to optimize the effect of interest, first learning the causal effect size of a given discontinuous variable and then applying dynamic programming for optimal quantization design of discontinuities to balance the gain and loss in that effect size. We also develop a computationally-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm for the dynamic programming formulation of optimal quantization. We demonstrate our approach by designing optimal time zone borders for counterfactuals of social capital, social mobility, and health. This is based on regression discontinuity analyses we perform on novel data, which may be of independent empirical interest.
Tesla robot ATTACKS an engineer at company's Texas factory during violent malfunction - leaving 'trail of blood' and forcing workers to hit emergency shutdown button
A Tesla engineer was attacked by a robot during a brutal and bloody malfunction at the company's Giga Texas factory near Austin. Two witnesses watched in horror as their fellow employee was attacked by the machine designed to grab and move freshly cast aluminum car parts. The robot had pinned the man, who was then programming software for two disabled Tesla robots nearby, before sinking its metal claws into the worker's back and arm, leaving a'trail of blood' along the factory surface. The incident - which left the victim with an'open wound' on his left hand - was revealed in a 2021 injury report filed to Travis county and federal regulators, which has been reviewed by DailyMail.com. While no other robot-related injures were reported to regulators by Tesla at the Texas factory in either 2021 or 2022, the incident comes amid years of heightened concerns over the risks of automated robots in the workplace.
The Morning After: NASA beamed a cat video from deep space to Earth
A video of Taters the cat beamed across 19 million miles of space because NASA had to try it. It was a successful demonstration of new laser communication technology, through which NASA beamed an ultra-high-definition video across deep space, from the Psyche spacecraft back to Earth. The signal from the video, sent on December 11, made it to Earth in 101 seconds. That data speed -- through space -- is faster than most broadband connections on Earth. You can get these reports delivered daily direct to your inbox.
Techscape: The biggest tech stories of 2023 โ from cyber warfare to AI's 'existential risk'
We have made it โ almost โ through another year without being churned into paste by a super-intelligent AI, conscripted into a Martian work camp by an insane billionaire or forced offline by a Carrington event. Even in the absence of civilisation-altering events it's been a busy year. But the advantage of a slow week (I hope that isn't tempting fate) is that you can reflect on the past 12 months and realise that, sometimes, there's only a few stories that really matter. The Guardian has confirmed it was hit by a ransomware attack in December and that the personal data of UK staff members has been accessed in the incident. "We believe this was a criminal ransomware attack, and not the specific targeting of the Guardian as a media organisation," said Guardian Media Group's chief executive, Anna Bateson and the Guardian's editor-in-chief, Katharine Viner.