Unmanned aerial vehicles are becoming common and have many productive uses. However, their increased prevalence raises safety concerns -- how can we protect restricted airspace? Knowing the type of unmanned aerial vehicle can go a long way in determining any potential risks it carries. For instance, fixed-wing craft can carry more weight over longer distances, thus potentially posing a more significant threat. This paper presents a machine learning model for classifying unmanned aerial vehicles as quadrotor, hexarotor, or fixed-wing. Our approach effectively applies a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network for the purpose of time series classification. We performed experiments to test the effects of changing the timestamp sampling method and addressing the imbalance in the class distribution. Through these experiments, we identified the top-performing sampling and class imbalance fixing methods. Averaging the macro f-scores across 10 folds of data, we found that the majority quadrotor class was predicted well (98.16%), and, despite an extreme class imbalance, the model could also predicted a majority of fixed-wing flights correctly (73.15%). Hexarotor instances were often misclassified as quadrotors due to the similarity of multirotors in general (42.15%). However, results remained relatively stable across certain methods, which prompted us to analyze and report on their tradeoffs. The supplemental material for this paper, including the code and data for running all the experiments and generating the results tables, is available at https://osf.io/mnsgk/.

When predicting a target variable $Y$ from features $X$, the prediction $\hat{Y}$ can be performative: an agent might act on this prediction, affecting the value of $Y$ that we eventually observe. Performative predictions are deliberately prevalent in algorithmic decision support, where a Decision Support System (DSS) provides a prediction for an agent to affect the value of the target variable. When deploying a DSS in high-stakes settings (e.g. healthcare, law, predictive policing, or child welfare screening) it is imperative to carefully assess the performative effects of the DSS. In the case that the DSS serves as an alarm for a predicted negative outcome, naive retraining of the prediction model is bound to result in a model that underestimates the risk, due to effective workings of the previous model. In this work, we propose to model the deployment of a DSS as causal domain shift and provide novel cross-domain identification results for the conditional expectation $E[Y | X]$, allowing for pre- and post-hoc assessment of the deployment of the DSS, and for retraining of a model that assesses the risk under a baseline policy where the DSS is not deployed. Using a running example, we empirically show that a repeated regression procedure provides a practical framework for estimating these quantities, even when the data is affected by sample selection bias and selective labelling, offering for a practical, unified solution for multiple forms of target variable bias.

Unmanned Aircraft Vehicles (UAVs) are becoming a crucial tool in modern warfare, primarily due to their cost-effectiveness, risk reduction, and ability to perform a wider range of activities. The use of autonomous UAVs to conduct strike missions against highly valuable targets is the focus of this research. Due to developments in ledger technology, smart contracts, and machine learning, such activities formerly carried out by professionals or remotely flown UAVs are now feasible. Our study provides the first in-depth analysis of challenges and preliminary solutions for successful implementation of an autonomous UAV mission. Specifically, we identify challenges that have to be overcome and propose possible technical solutions for the challenges identified. We also derive analytical expressions for the success probability of an autonomous UAV mission, and describe a machine learning model to train the UAV.

We introduce a multi-step reasoning framework using prompt-based LLMs to examine the relationship between social media language patterns and trends in national health outcomes. Grounded in fuzzy-trace theory, which emphasizes the importance of gists of causal coherence in effective health communication, we introduce Role-Based Incremental Coaching (RBIC), a prompt-based LLM framework, to identify gists at-scale. Using RBIC, we systematically extract gists from subreddit discussions opposing COVID-19 health measures (Study 1). We then track how these gists evolve across key events (Study 2) and assess their influence on online engagement (Study 3). Finally, we investigate how the volume of gists is associated with national health trends like vaccine uptake and hospitalizations (Study 4). Our work is the first to empirically link social media linguistic patterns to real-world public health trends, highlighting the potential of prompt-based LLMs in identifying critical online discussion patterns that can form the basis of public health communication strategies.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive results on natural language tasks, and security researchers are beginning to employ them in both offensive and defensive systems. In cyber-security, there have been multiple research efforts that utilize LLMs focusing on the pre-breach stage of attacks like phishing and malware generation. However, so far there lacks a comprehensive study regarding whether LLM-based systems can be leveraged to simulate the post-breach stage of attacks that are typically human-operated, or "hands-on-keyboard" attacks, under various attack techniques and environments. As LLMs inevitably advance, they may be able to automate both the pre- and post-breach attack stages. This shift may transform organizational attacks from rare, expert-led events to frequent, automated operations requiring no expertise and executed at automation speed and scale. This risks fundamentally changing global computer security and correspondingly causing substantial economic impacts, and a goal of this work is to better understand these risks now so we can better prepare for these inevitable ever-more-capable LLMs on the horizon. On the immediate impact side, this research serves three purposes. First, an automated LLM-based, post-breach exploitation framework can help analysts quickly test and continually improve their organization's network security posture against previously unseen attacks. Second, an LLM-based penetration test system can extend the effectiveness of red teams with a limited number of human analysts. Finally, this research can help defensive systems and teams learn to detect novel attack behaviors preemptively before their use in the wild....

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to factuality hallucination, generating text that contradicts established knowledge. While extensive research has addressed this in English, little is known about multilingual LLMs. This paper systematically evaluates multilingual LLMs' factual accuracy across languages and geographic regions. We introduce a novel pipeline for multilingual factuality evaluation, adapting FActScore(Min et al., 2023) for diverse languages. Our analysis across nine languages reveals that English consistently outperforms others in factual accuracy and quantity of generated facts. Furthermore, multilingual models demonstrate a bias towards factual information from Western continents. These findings highlight the need for improved multilingual factuality assessment and underscore geographical biases in LLMs' fact generation.

The advent of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has marked a significant shift in various fields, including games [1-3], autonomous robotics [4], autonomous driving [5], and energy management [6]. By integrating Reinforcement Learning (RL) with Deep Neural Networks (DNN), DRL can leverages high dimensional continuous observations and rewards to train neural policies, without the need for supervised example trajectories. While DRL achieves remarkable performances in well known controlled environments, it also encounter challenges in ensuring robust performance amid diverse condition changes and real-world perturbations. It particularly struggle to bridge the reality gap [7, 8], often DRL agents are trained in simulation that remains an imitation of the real-world, resulting in a gap between the performance of a trained agent in the simulation and its performance once transferred to the real-world application. Even without trying to bridge the reality gap, agents can be trained in the first place in some conditions, and be deployed later and the conditions may have changed since.

We introduces Crimson, a system that enhances the strategic reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) within the realm of cybersecurity. By correlating CVEs with MITRE ATT&CK techniques, Crimson advances threat anticipation and strategic defense efforts. Our approach includes defining and evaluating cybersecurity strategic tasks, alongside implementing a comprehensive human-in-the-loop data-synthetic workflow to develop the CVE-to-ATT&CK Mapping (CVEM) dataset. We further enhance LLMs' reasoning abilities through a novel Retrieval-Aware Training (RAT) process and its refined iteration, RAT-R. Our findings demonstrate that an LLM fine-tuned with our techniques, possessing 7 billion parameters, approaches the performance level of GPT-4, showing markedly lower rates of hallucination and errors, and surpassing other models in strategic reasoning tasks. Moreover, domain-specific fine-tuning of embedding models significantly improves performance within cybersecurity contexts, underscoring the efficacy of our methodology. By leveraging Crimson to convert raw vulnerability data into structured and actionable insights, we bolster proactive cybersecurity defenses.

We prove that training neural networks on 1-D data is equivalent to solving a convex Lasso problem with a fixed, explicitly defined dictionary matrix of features. The specific dictionary depends on the activation and depth. We consider 2-layer networks with piecewise linear activations, deep narrow ReLU networks with up to 4 layers, and rectangular and tree networks with sign activation and arbitrary depth. Interestingly in ReLU networks, a fourth layer creates features that represent reflections of training data about themselves.

Real-world data is often incomplete and contains missing values. To train accurate models over real-world datasets, users need to spend a substantial amount of time and resources imputing and finding proper values for missing data items. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to learn accurate models directly from data with missing values for certain training data and target models. We propose a unified approach for checking the necessity of data imputation to learn accurate models across various widely-used machine learning paradigms. We build efficient algorithms with theoretical guarantees to check this necessity and return accurate models in cases where imputation is unnecessary. Our extensive experiments indicate that our proposed algorithms significantly reduce the amount of time and effort needed for data imputation without imposing considerable computational overhead.