Government
A Deep Generative Framework for Joint Households and Individuals Population Synthesis
Qian, Xiao, Gangwal, Utkarsh, Dong, Shangjia, Davidson, Rachel
Household and individual-level sociodemographic data are essential for understanding human-infrastructure interaction and policymaking. However, the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) offers only a sample at the state level, while census tract data only provides the marginal distributions of variables without correlations. Therefore, we need an accurate synthetic population dataset that maintains consistent variable correlations observed in microdata, preserves household-individual and individual-individual relationships, adheres to state-level statistics, and accurately represents the geographic distribution of the population. We propose a deep generative framework leveraging the variational autoencoder (VAE) to generate a synthetic population with the aforementioned features. The methodological contributions include (1) a new data structure for capturing household-individual and individual-individual relationships, (2) a transfer learning process with pre-training and fine-tuning steps to generate households and individuals whose aggregated distributions align with the census tract marginal distribution, and (3) decoupled binary cross-entropy (D-BCE) loss function enabling distribution shift and out-of-sample records generation. Model results for an application in Delaware, USA demonstrate the ability to ensure the realism of generated household-individual records and accurately describe population statistics at the census tract level compared to existing methods. Furthermore, testing in North Carolina, USA yielded promising results, supporting the transferability of our method.
Improving the performance of Stein variational inference through extreme sparsification of physically-constrained neural network models
Padmanabha, Govinda Anantha, Fuhg, Jan Niklas, Safta, Cosmin, Jones, Reese E., Bouklas, Nikolaos
However, the well-established methods for obtaining posterior distributions of likely parameters such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling [1] become infeasible with highly parameterized machine learning function representations, such as neural networks (NNs). The curse of dimensionality in this uncertainty quantification (UQ) setting is tied to the cost of sampling the posterior sufficiently to determine its covariance structure and generate representative push-forward realizations. In this work, our goal is to obtain a high-dimensional posterior distribution over a large number of random variables representing model parameters, which is particularly useful when limited amount of training data is available. One of the simplest ways to obtain the approximate posterior is to implement MCMC methods. However, this approach is challenged by the number of parameters typically present in NNs and it is difficult to converge samples to those representative of the posterior, even for models with moderate dimensionality. There has been enormous progress made to approximate high-dimensional posterior distributions using variational inference methods [2]. However, these methods restrict the approximate posterior to a certain parametric family and find the best approximate posterior through optimization. To surmount these issues, Liu and Wang [3] recently proposed a non-parametric variational inference method called Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD).
GenderBias-\emph{VL}: Benchmarking Gender Bias in Vision Language Models via Counterfactual Probing
Xiao, Yisong, Liu, Aishan, Cheng, QianJia, Yin, Zhenfei, Liang, Siyuan, Li, Jiapeng, Shao, Jing, Liu, Xianglong, Tao, Dacheng
Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have been widely adopted in various applications; however, they exhibit significant gender biases. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate gender bias at the demographic group level, neglecting individual fairness, which emphasizes equal treatment of similar individuals. This research gap limits the detection of discriminatory behaviors, as individual fairness offers a more granular examination of biases that group fairness may overlook. For the first time, this paper introduces the GenderBias-\emph{VL} benchmark to evaluate occupation-related gender bias in LVLMs using counterfactual visual questions under individual fairness criteria. To construct this benchmark, we first utilize text-to-image diffusion models to generate occupation images and their gender counterfactuals. Subsequently, we generate corresponding textual occupation options by identifying stereotyped occupation pairs with high semantic similarity but opposite gender proportions in real-world statistics. This method enables the creation of large-scale visual question counterfactuals to expose biases in LVLMs, applicable in both multimodal and unimodal contexts through modifying gender attributes in specific modalities. Overall, our GenderBias-\emph{VL} benchmark comprises 34,581 visual question counterfactual pairs, covering 177 occupations. Using our benchmark, we extensively evaluate 15 commonly used open-source LVLMs (\eg, LLaVA) and state-of-the-art commercial APIs, including GPT-4o and Gemini-Pro. Our findings reveal widespread gender biases in existing LVLMs. Our benchmark offers: (1) a comprehensive dataset for occupation-related gender bias evaluation; (2) an up-to-date leaderboard on LVLM biases; and (3) a nuanced understanding of the biases presented by these models. \footnote{The dataset and code are available at the \href{https://genderbiasvl.github.io/}{website}.}
Mechanistic Interpretation through Contextual Decomposition in Transformers
Hsu, Aliyah R., Cherapanamjeri, Yeshwanth, Odisho, Anobel Y., Carroll, Peter R., Yu, Bin
Transformers exhibit impressive capabilities but are often regarded as black boxes due to challenges in understanding the complex nonlinear relationships between features. Interpreting machine learning models is of paramount importance to mitigate risks, and mechanistic interpretability is in particular of current interest as it opens up a window for guiding manual modifications and reverse-engineering solutions. In this work, we introduce contextual decomposition for transformers (CD-T), extending a prior work on CD for RNNs and CNNs, to address mechanistic interpretation computationally efficiently. CD-T is a flexible interpretation method for transformers. It can capture contributions of combinations of input features or source internal components (e.g. attention heads, feed-forward networks) to (1) final predictions or (2) the output of any target internal component. Using CD-T, we propose a novel algorithm for circuit discovery. On a real-world pathology report classification task: we show CD-T distills a more faithful circuit of attention heads with improved computational efficiency (speed up 2x) than a prior benchmark, path patching. As a versatile interpretation method, CD-T also exhibits exceptional capabilities for local interpretations. CD-T is shown to reliably find words and phrases of contrasting sentiment/topic on SST-2 and AGNews datasets. Through human experiments, we demonstrate CD-T enables users to identify the more accurate of two models and to better trust a model's outputs compared to alternative interpretation methods such as SHAP and LIME.
NourishNet: Proactive Severity State Forecasting of Food Commodity Prices for Global Warning Systems
Balboni, Sydney, Ivey, Grace, Storoe, Brett, Cisler, John, Plater, Tyge, Grant, Caitlyn, Bruce, Ella, Paulson, Benjamin
Price volatility in global food commodities is a critical signal indicating potential disruptions in the food market. Understanding forthcoming changes in these prices is essential for bolstering food security, particularly for nations at risk. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) previously developed sophisticated statistical frameworks for the proactive prediction of food commodity prices, aiding in the creation of global early warning systems. These frameworks utilize food security indicators to produce accurate forecasts, thereby facilitating preparations against potential food shortages. Our research builds on these foundations by integrating robust price security indicators with cutting-edge deep learning (DL) methodologies to reveal complex interdependencies. DL techniques examine intricate dynamics among diverse factors affecting food prices. Through sophisticated time-series forecasting models coupled with a classification model, our approach enhances existing models to better support communities worldwide in advancing their food security initiatives.
TrialBench: Multi-Modal Artificial Intelligence-Ready Clinical Trial Datasets
Chen, Jintai, Hu, Yaojun, Wang, Yue, Lu, Yingzhou, Cao, Xu, Lin, Miao, Xu, Hongxia, Wu, Jian, Xiao, Cao, Sun, Jimeng, Glass, Lucas, Huang, Kexin, Zitnik, Marinka, Fu, Tianfan
Clinical trials are pivotal for developing new medical treatments, yet they typically pose some risks such as patient mortality, adverse events, and enrollment failure that waste immense efforts spanning over a decade. Applying artificial intelligence (AI) to forecast or simulate key events in clinical trials holds great potential for providing insights to guide trial designs. However, complex data collection and question definition requiring medical expertise and a deep understanding of trial designs have hindered the involvement of AI thus far. This paper tackles these challenges by presenting a comprehensive suite of meticulously curated AIready datasets covering multi-modal data (e.g., drug molecule, disease code, text, categorical/numerical features) and 8 crucial prediction challenges in clinical trial design, encompassing prediction of trial duration, patient dropout rate, serious adverse event, mortality rate, trial approval outcome, trial failure reason, drug dose finding, design of eligibility criteria. Furthermore, we provide basic validation methods for each task to ensure the datasets' usability and reliability. We anticipate that the availability of such open-access datasets will catalyze the development of advanced AI approaches for clinical trial design, ultimately advancing clinical trial research and accelerating medical solution development.
Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Language Models
Carriero, Andrea, Pettenuzzo, Davide, Shekhar, Shubhranshu
The recent emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has reshaped the landscape of natural language processing, ushering in a new era of computational linguistics. Bolstered by advancements in machine learning and deep neural networks, LLMs have garnered widespread attention for their remarkable ability to understand and generate human-like text. This transformative technology has revolutionized various applications, ranging from machine translation and sentiment analysis to chatbots and content generation. By leveraging vast amounts of text data and sophisticated algorithms, LLMs have demonstrated unparalleled proficiency in capturing linguistic nuances, contextual dependencies, and semantic meanings.
SecureSpectra: Safeguarding Digital Identity from Deep Fake Threats via Intelligent Signatures
Baser, Oguzhan, Kale, Kaan, Chinchali, Sandeep P.
Advancements in DeepFake (DF) audio models pose a significant threat to voice authentication systems, leading to unauthorized access and the spread of misinformation. We introduce a defense mechanism, SecureSpectra, addressing DF threats by embedding orthogonal, irreversible signatures within audio. SecureSpectra leverages the inability of DF models to replicate high-frequency content, which we empirically identify across diverse datasets and DF models. Integrating differential privacy into the pipeline protects signatures from reverse engineering and strikes a delicate balance between enhanced security and minimal performance compromises. Our evaluations on Mozilla Common Voice, LibriSpeech, and VoxCeleb datasets showcase SecureSpectra's superior performance, outperforming recent works by up to 71% in detection accuracy. We open-source SecureSpectra to benefit the research community.
SimsChat: A Customisable Persona-Driven Role-Playing Agent
Yang, Bohao, Liu, Dong, Tang, Chen, Xiao, Chenghao, Zhao, Kun, Li, Chao, Yuan, Lin, Yang, Guang, Huang, Lanxiao, Lin, Chenghua
Large Language Models (LLMs) possess the remarkable capability to understand human instructions and generate high-quality text, enabling them to act as agents that simulate human behaviours. This capability allows LLMs to emulate human beings in a more advanced manner, beyond merely replicating simple human behaviours. However, there is a lack of exploring into leveraging LLMs to craft characters from several aspects. In this work, we introduce the Customisable Conversation Agent Framework, which employs LLMs to simulate real-world characters that can be freely customised according to different user preferences. The customisable framework is helpful for designing customisable characters and role-playing agents according to human's preferences. We first propose the SimsConv dataset, which comprises 68 different customised characters, 1,360 multi-turn role-playing dialogues, and encompasses 13,971 interaction dialogues in total. The characters are created from several real-world elements, such as career, aspiration, trait, and skill. Building on these foundations, we present SimsChat, a freely customisable role-playing agent. It incorporates different real-world scenes and topic-specific character interaction dialogues, simulating characters' life experiences in various scenarios and topic-specific interactions with specific emotions. Experimental results show that our proposed framework achieves desirable performance and provides helpful guideline for building better simulacra of human beings in the future. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/Bernard-Yang/SimsChat.
Fortify the Guardian, Not the Treasure: Resilient Adversarial Detectors
Lapid, Raz, Dubin, Almog, Sipper, Moshe
This paper presents RADAR-Robust Adversarial Detection via Adversarial Retraining-an approach designed to enhance the robustness of adversarial detectors against adaptive attacks, while maintaining classifier performance. An adaptive attack is one where the attacker is aware of the defenses and adapts their strategy accordingly. Our proposed method leverages adversarial training to reinforce the ability to detect attacks, without compromising clean accuracy. During the training phase, we integrate into the dataset adversarial examples, which were optimized to fool both the classifier and the adversarial detector, enabling the adversarial detector to learn and adapt to potential attack scenarios. Experimental evaluations on the CIFAR-10 and SVHN datasets demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly improves a detector's ability to accurately identify adaptive adversarial attacks -- without sacrificing clean accuracy.