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Want to know how AI will affect government and politics? The bots have the answers

The Guardian

What will AI do to employment? It is, after "will it kill us all?", the most important question about the technology, and it's remarkably hard to pin down – even as the frontier moves from science fiction to reality. At one end of the spectrum is the slightly Pollyannaish claim that new technology simply creates new jobs; at the other, fears of businesses replacing entire workforces with AI tools. Sometimes, the dispute is less about end state and more about speed of the transition: an upheaval completed in a few years is destructive for those caught in the middle of it, in a way that one which takes two decades may be survivable. Even analogies to the past are less clear than we might like.


Amid concerns about Biden's mental acuity, experts reveal how cognitive tests work and what they reveal

FOX News

After President Biden's lackluster debate performance sparked renewed concerns about his mental acuity, both sides of the political spectrum have been clamoring for him to take a cognitive test. Biden has not seen a neurologist, but did undergo his annual physical exam in February, Dr. Kevin O'Connor, physician for the president, said in a July 8 statement from the White House. The doctor reiterated that Biden's physical exam did not reveal concerns about a neurological disorder. In a recent interview with George Stephanopoulos, Biden remained noncommittal about formal cognitive testing, noting, "I have a cognitive test every single day" -- meaning by performing his duties as president of the United States. Many Americans, however, have wanted greater transparency.


The Good Robot Podcast: Featuring Maurice Chiodo

AIHub

Hosted by Eleanor Drage and Kerry Mackereth, The Good Robot is a podcast which explores the many complex intersections between gender, feminism and technology. We often think that maths is neutral or can't be harmful, because after all, what could numbers do to hurt us? In this episode, we talk to Dr Maurice Chiodo, a mathematician at the University of Cambridge, who's now based at the Centre for Existential Risk. He tells us why maths can actually throw out big ethical issues. Take the atomic bomb or the maths used by Cambridge Analytica to influence the Brexit referendum or the US elections.


A.I.'s Threat to Democracy Flopped

Slate

On today's episode of Hear Me Out: tried and Turing tested. Coming into the 2024 election cycle, generative A.I. was one of the main concerns for democracy watchdogs; its power to create deceptive text, images, and sounds at a rapid, unfettered pace seems ripe to spread misinformation. But of all the controversies and current events that have shaped the election thus far… A.I., somehow, might not be one of them. Writer and social strategist Rachel Greenspan joins us to share what she's hearing about the A.I. revolution that wasn't. If you have thoughts you want to share, or an idea for a topic we should tackle, you can email the show: hearmeout@slate.com


Sociotechnical Implications of Generative Artificial Intelligence for Information Access

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robust access to trustworthy information is a critical need for society including implications for knowledge production, public health education, and promoting informed citizenry in democratic societies. Generative AI technologies such as large language models (LLMs) may enable new ways to access information and improve effectiveness of existing information retrieval (IR) systems. More efficient basic task execution with the help of LLMs can also enable people to focus on the more challenging aspects of information retrieval related tasks and research. However, the long-term social implications of deploying these technologies in the context of information access are not yet well-understood. Existing research has focused on how these models may generate biased and harmful content [11, 23, 69, 80, 124, 158, 236] as well as the environmental costs [23, 31, 61, 166, 167, 241] of developing and deploying these models at scale. In the context of information access, Shah and Bender [187] have argued that certain framings of LLMs as "search engines" lack the necessary theoretical underpinnings and may constitute as a category error. In this current work, we present a broader perspective on the sociotechnical implications of generative AI for information access. Our perspective is informed by existing literature and aims to provide a summary of known challenges viewed through a systemic lens that we hope will serve as a useful resource for future critical research in this area. We present a summary of these implications next followed by recommendations for evaluation and mitigation later in this chapter.


Representation Bias in Political Sample Simulations with Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study seeks to identify and quantify biases in simulating political samples with Large Language Models, specifically focusing on vote choice and public opinion. Using the GPT-3.5-Turbo model, we leverage data from the American National Election Studies, German Longitudinal Election Study, Zuobiao Dataset, and China Family Panel Studies to simulate voting behaviors and public opinions. This methodology enables us to examine three types of representation bias: disparities based on the the country's language, demographic groups, and political regime types. The findings reveal that simulation performance is generally better for vote choice than for public opinions, more accurate in English-speaking countries, more effective in bipartisan systems than in multi-partisan systems, and stronger in democratic settings than in authoritarian regimes. These results contribute to enhancing our understanding and developing strategies to mitigate biases in AI applications within the field of computational social science.


Accounting for Work Zone Disruptions in Traffic Flow Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic speed forecasting is an important task in intelligent transportation system management. The objective of much of the current computational research is to minimize the difference between predicted and actual speeds, but information modalities other than speed priors are largely not taken into account. In particular, though state of the art performance is achieved on speed forecasting with graph neural network methods, these methods do not incorporate information on roadway maintenance work zones and their impacts on predicted traffic flows; yet, the impacts of construction work zones are of significant interest to roadway management agencies, because they translate to impacts on the local economy and public well-being. In this paper, we build over the convolutional graph neural network architecture and present a novel ``Graph Convolutional Network for Roadway Work Zones" model that includes a novel data fusion mechanism and a new heterogeneous graph aggregation methodology to accommodate work zone information in spatio-temporal dependencies among traffic states. The model is evaluated on two data sets that capture traffic flows in the presence of work zones in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Extensive comparative evaluation and ablation studies show that the proposed model can capture complex and nonlinear spatio-temporal relationships across a transportation corridor, outperforming baseline models, particularly when predicting traffic flow during a workzone event.


This Probably Looks Exactly Like That: An Invertible Prototypical Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We combine concept-based neural networks with generative, flow-based classifiers into a novel, intrinsically explainable, exactly invertible approach to supervised learning. Prototypical neural networks, a type of concept-based neural network, represent an exciting way forward in realizing human-comprehensible machine learning without concept annotations, but a human-machine semantic gap continues to haunt current approaches. We find that reliance on indirect interpretation functions for prototypical explanations imposes a severe limit on prototypes' informative power. From this, we posit that invertibly learning prototypes as distributions over the latent space provides more robust, expressive, and interpretable modeling. We propose one such model, called ProtoFlow, by composing a normalizing flow with Gaussian mixture models. ProtoFlow (1) sets a new state-of-the-art in joint generative and predictive modeling and (2) achieves predictive performance comparable to existing prototypical neural networks while enabling richer interpretation.


Mitigating Catastrophic Forgetting in Language Transfer via Model Merging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As open-weight large language models (LLMs) achieve ever more impressive performances across a wide range of tasks in English, practitioners aim to adapt these models to different languages. However, such language adaptation is often accompanied by catastrophic forgetting of the base model's capabilities, severely limiting the usefulness of the resulting model. We address this issue by proposing Branch-and-Merge (BaM), a new adaptation method based on iteratively merging multiple models, fine-tuned on a subset of the available training data. BaM is based on the insight that this yields lower magnitude but higher quality weight changes, reducing forgetting of the source domain while maintaining learning on the target domain. We demonstrate in an extensive empirical study on Bulgarian and German that BaM can significantly reduce forgetting while matching or even improving target domain performance compared to both standard continued pretraining and instruction finetuning across different model architectures.


Map of Elections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Our main contribution is the introduction of the map of elections framework. A map of elections consists of three main elements: (1) a dataset of elections (i.e., collections of ordinal votes over given sets of candidates), (2) a way of measuring similarities between these elections, and (3) a representation of the elections in the 2D Euclidean space as points, so that the more similar two elections are, the closer are their points. In our maps, we mostly focus on datasets of synthetic elections, but we also show an example of a map over real-life ones. To measure similarities, we would have preferred to use, e.g., the isomorphic swap distance, but this is infeasible due to its high computational complexity. Hence, we propose polynomial-time computable positionwise distance and use it instead. Regarding the representations in 2D Euclidean space, we mostly use the Kamada-Kawai algorithm, but we also show two alternatives. We develop the necessary theoretical results to form our maps and argue experimentally that they are accurate and credible. Further, we show how coloring the elections in a map according to various criteria helps in analyzing results of a number of experiments. In particular, we show colorings according to the scores of winning candidates or committees, running times of ILP-based winner determination algorithms, and approximation ratios achieved by particular algorithms.