We study how the word usage of U.S. Congressional speeches varies across states and party affiliation, how words are used differently across sections of the ArXiv, and how the copurchase patterns of groceries can vary across seasons. Key to the success of our method is that the groups share statistical information. We develop two sharing strategies: hierarchical modeling and amortization. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach in empirical studies of speeches, abstracts, and shopping baskets.

Discovering statistical structure from links is a fundamental problem in the analysis of social networks. Choosing a misspecified model, or equivalently, an incorrect inference algorithm will result in an invalid analysis or even falsely uncover patterns that are in fact artifacts of the model. This work focuses on unifying two of the most widely used link-formation models: the stochastic blockmodel (SBM) and the small world (or latent space) model (SWM). Integrating techniques from kernel learning, spectral graph theory, and nonlinear dimensionality reduction, we develop the first statistically sound polynomial-time algorithm to discover latent patterns in sparse graphs for both models. When the network comes from an SBM, the algorithm outputs a block structure. When it is from an SWM, the algorithm outputs estimates of each node's latent position.

As the bitterly contested U.S. election campaign enters its final stretch, misinformation researchers have raised the alarm over threats artificial intelligence and foreign influence pose -- but voters appear more concerned about falsehoods from a more familiar source: politicians. The United States is battling a firehose of misinformation before the Nov. 5 vote -- from fake "news" sites that researchers say were created by Russian and Iranian actors, to manipulated images generated by AI tools that have blurred the boundaries between reality and fiction. More concerning for voters, however, is misinformation spreading the good-old-fashioned way, through politicians sowing falsehoods, with researchers saying they face almost no legal consequences for distorting the truth.

Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate inference algorithm on a specific data set. This paper introduces the auxiliary inference divergence estimator (AIDE), an algorithm for measuring the accuracy of approximate inference algorithms. AIDE is based on the observation that inference algorithms can be treated as probabilistic models and the random variables used within the inference algorithm can be viewed as auxiliary variables. This view leads to a new estimator for the symmetric KL divergence between the approximating distributions of two inference algorithms. The paper illustrates application of AIDE to algorithms for inference in regression, hidden Markov, and Dirichlet process mixture models. The experiments show that AIDE captures the qualitative behavior of a broad class of inference algorithms and can detect failure modes of inference algorithms that are missed by standard heuristics.

At least three people, including a six-year-old girl, were killed after Russian drones hit a truck delivering gas cylinders to houses in a border village in the northern Chernihiv region, Ukraine's national police force said on Telegram. Four people, including two children, were injured. At least 12 people, including a three-year-old girl, were injured after a Russian glide bomb struck a five-storey apartment block in northeastern Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. The bomb struck late on Wednesday night, starting a fire, the regional governor said. Russia's Ministry of Defence said its army had taken full control of the strategic hilltop town of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine.

A false post claiming to show a pro-abortion campaign ad by Kamala Harris has been widely circulated on social media. BBC Verify has found that it was made by recycling an old advert for UK department store and adding an AI-generated voice over.

The last decade in deep learning has brought on increasingly capable systems that are deployed on a wide variety of applications. In natural language processing, the field has been transformed by a number of breakthroughs including large language models, which are used in increasingly many user-facing applications. In order to reap the benefits of this technology and reduce potential harms, it is important to quantify the reliability of model predictions and the uncertainties that shroud their development. This thesis studies how uncertainty in natural language processing can be characterized from a linguistic, statistical and neural perspective, and how it can be reduced and quantified through the design of the experimental pipeline. We further explore uncertainty quantification in modeling by theoretically and empirically investigating the effect of inductive model biases in text classification tasks. The corresponding experiments include data for three different languages (Danish, English and Finnish) and tasks as well as a large set of different uncertainty quantification approaches. Additionally, we propose a method for calibrated sampling in natural language generation based on non-exchangeable conformal prediction, which provides tighter token sets with better coverage of the actual continuation. Lastly, we develop an approach to quantify confidence in large black-box language models using auxiliary predictors, where the confidence is predicted from the input to and generated output text of the target model alone.

Document-grounded dialogue systems aim to answer user queries by leveraging external information. Previous studies have mainly focused on handling free-form documents, often overlooking structured data such as lists, which can represent a range of nuanced semantic relations. Motivated by the observation that even advanced language models like GPT-3.5 often miss semantic cues from lists, this paper aims to enhance question answering (QA) systems for better interpretation and use of structured lists. To this end, we introduce the LIST2QA dataset, a novel benchmark to evaluate the ability of QA systems to respond effectively using list information. This dataset is created from unlabeled customer service documents using language models and model-based filtering processes to enhance data quality, and can be used to fine-tune and evaluate QA models. Apart from directly generating responses through fine-tuned models, we further explore the explicit use of Intermediate Steps for Lists (ISL), aligning list items with user backgrounds to better reflect how humans interpret list items before generating responses. Our experimental results demonstrate that models trained on LIST2QA with our ISL approach outperform baselines across various metrics. Specifically, our fine-tuned Flan-T5-XL model shows increases of 3.1% in ROUGE-L, 4.6% in correctness, 4.5% in faithfulness, and 20.6% in completeness compared to models without applying filtering and the proposed ISL method.

Group fairness in machine learning is a critical area of research focused on achieving equitable outcomes across different groups defined by sensitive attributes such as race or gender. Federated learning, a decentralized approach to training machine learning models across multiple devices or organizations without sharing raw data, amplifies the need for fairness due to the heterogeneous data distributions across clients, which can exacerbate biases. The intersection of federated learning and group fairness has attracted significant interest, with 47 research works specifically dedicated to addressing this issue. However, no dedicated survey has focused comprehensively on group fairness in federated learning. In this work, we present an in-depth survey on this topic, addressing the critical challenges and reviewing related works in the field. We create a novel taxonomy of these approaches based on key criteria such as data partitioning, location, and applied strategies. Additionally, we explore broader concerns related to this problem and investigate how different approaches handle the complexities of various sensitive groups and their intersections. Finally, we review the datasets and applications commonly used in current research. We conclude by highlighting key areas for future research, emphasizing the need for more methods to address the complexities of achieving group fairness in federated systems.

This paper presents an approach to developing assurance cases for adversarial robustness and regulatory compliance in large language models (LLMs). Focusing on both natural and code language tasks, we explore the vulnerabilities these models face, including adversarial attacks based on jailbreaking, heuristics, and randomization. We propose a layered framework incorporating guardrails at various stages of LLM deployment, aimed at mitigating these attacks and ensuring compliance with the EU AI Act. Our approach includes a meta-layer for dynamic risk management and reasoning, crucial for addressing the evolving nature of LLM vulnerabilities. We illustrate our method with two exemplary assurance cases, highlighting how different contexts demand tailored strategies to ensure robust and compliant AI systems.