Recent debates raised concerns that language models may favor certain viewpoints. But what if the solution is not to aim for a 'view from nowhere' but rather to leverage different viewpoints? We introduce Plurals, a system and Python library for pluralistic AI deliberation. Plurals consists of Agents (LLMs, optionally with personas) which deliberate within customizable Structures, with Moderators overseeing deliberation. Plurals is a generator of simulated social ensembles. Plurals integrates with government datasets to create nationally representative personas, includes deliberation templates inspired by deliberative democracy, and allows users to customize both information-sharing structures and deliberation behavior within Structures. Six case studies demonstrate fidelity to theoretical constructs and efficacy. Three randomized experiments show simulated focus groups produced output resonant with an online sample of the relevant audiences (chosen over zero-shot generation in 75% of trials). Plurals is both a paradigm and a concrete system for pluralistic AI. The Plurals library is available at https://github.com/josh-ashkinaze/plurals and will be continually updated.

We present LazyDINO, a transport map variational inference method for fast, scalable, and efficiently amortized solutions of high-dimensional nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems with expensive parameter-to-observable (PtO) maps. Our method consists of an offline phase in which we construct a derivative-informed neural surrogate of the PtO map using joint samples of the PtO map and its Jacobian. During the online phase, when given observational data, we seek rapid posterior approximation using surrogate-driven training of a lazy map [Brennan et al., NeurIPS, (2020)], i.e., a structure-exploiting transport map with low-dimensional nonlinearity. The trained lazy map then produces approximate posterior samples or density evaluations. Our surrogate construction is optimized for amortized Bayesian inversion using lazy map variational inference. We show that (i) the derivative-based reduced basis architecture [O'Leary-Roseberry et al., Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng., 388 (2022)] minimizes the upper bound on the expected error in surrogate posterior approximation, and (ii) the derivative-informed training formulation [O'Leary-Roseberry et al., J. Comput. Phys., 496 (2024)] minimizes the expected error due to surrogate-driven transport map optimization. Our numerical results demonstrate that LazyDINO is highly efficient in cost amortization for Bayesian inversion. We observe one to two orders of magnitude reduction of offline cost for accurate posterior approximation, compared to simulation-based amortized inference via conditional transport and conventional surrogate-driven transport. In particular, LazyDINO outperforms Laplace approximation consistently using fewer than 1000 offline samples, while other amortized inference methods struggle and sometimes fail at 16,000 offline samples.

By the end of 2023, renewable sources cover 63.4% of the total electric power demand of Chile, and in line with the global trend, photovoltaic (PV) power shows the most dynamic increase. Although Chile's Atacama Desert is considered the sunniest place on Earth, PV power production, even in this area, can be highly volatile. Successful integration of PV energy into the country's power grid requires accurate short-term PV power forecasts, which can be obtained from predictions of solar irradiance and related weather quantities. Nowadays, in weather forecasting, the state-of-the-art approach is the use of ensemble forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. However, ensemble forecasts still tend to be uncalibrated or biased, thus requiring some form of post-processing. The present work investigates probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance for Regions III and IV in Chile. For this reason, 8-member short-term ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance for calendar year 2021 are generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which are then calibrated using the benchmark ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method based on a censored Gaussian law, and its machine learning-based distributional regression network (DRN) counterpart. Furthermore, we also propose a neural network-based post-processing method resulting in improved 8-member ensemble predictions. All forecasts are evaluated against station observations for 30 locations, and the skill of post-processed predictions is compared to the raw WRF ensemble. Our case study confirms that all studied post-processing methods substantially improve both the calibration of probabilistic- and the accuracy of point forecasts. Among the methods tested, the corrected ensemble exhibits the best overall performance. Additionally, the DRN model generally outperforms the corresponding EMOS approach.

Our world is in a spiral of crises. While conventional threats, such as famine, drought, civil war and genocide, continue to loom over humanity in many parts of the world, the race to assume control of new phenomena that have the potential to change the world – such as novel communications and weapons technologies, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies – is also gaining pace and posing new threats to our collective wellbeing. Our current "rules-based international order", which was established in the aftermath of World War II to increase global cooperation, generate economic prosperity, prevent wars, and ensure stability, equality and justice is struggling to navigate these complex challenges and falling short of preventing violations of its founding principles. A state of irregularity, which benefits only a handful of powerful countries and interest groups while spelling catastrophe for the masses, is close to becoming the new normal of the global order. Therefore, it is now not a preference but an obligation to make comprehensive reforms to the system to prevent this scenario from becoming reality.

United States President Joe Biden has reportedly lifted restrictions on Kyiv on the use of long-range missiles, which means Ukrainian forces may fire American-made missiles inside Russian territory for the first time. The move, which comes weeks before Biden leaves office and hours after massive Russian missile and drone attacks, has angered the Kremlin, which accused Washington of "throwing oil on the fire". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the decision would mean Washington's direct involvement in the conflict, echoing a similar sentiment expressed by President Vladimir Putin in September. The White House and President-elect Donald Trump have not commented yet, but Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, said: "The military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War III going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives." The elder Trump, who takes office on January 20, repeatedly pledged during his campaign to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war.

Late last month, the US Treasury Department finalized new restrictions limiting what kinds of Chinese tech startups US venture capital firms can invest in for national security reasons. When they go into effect in January, the long-awaited measures will stop American VCs and other investors from pouring money into cutting-edge Chinese AI models. After president-elect Trump takes office a few weeks later, his administration may expand the rules and make them even tougher. While the US still leads the world in advanced AI development, the American government has grown increasingly concerned about China catching up soon. The new outbound investment restrictions are designed to work alongside other measures, such as export controls on advanced computer chips and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), to collectively hamper--or at least slow down--the progress of Chinese AI companies.

On Wednesday, during a gathering at Mar-a-Lago attended by some of Donald Trump's closest associates, a speaker demanded, "Where is the George Soros of the right?" In a scene that an attendee captured on video, Elon Musk, the fifty-three-year-old South African-born billionaire who reportedly spent about a hundred and thirty million dollars to aid Trump's campaign and support other Republicans in competitive races, raised his arm. Amid loud cheers, the speaker declared, "God bless you, Elon. We are so, so grateful." Musk has claimed publicly that he has never asked Trump for any favors, and that Trump has not offered him any. Despite spreading misinformation on X, his social-media platform, and heavily financing the campaign of someone who plotted an autogolpe, he has also denied being a political extremist.

Traditional Learning-To-Rank (LETOR) approaches, including pairwise methods like RankNet and LambdaMART, often fall short by solely focusing on pairwise comparisons, leading to sub-optimal global rankings. Conversely, deep learning based listwise methods, while aiming to optimise entire lists, require complex tuning and yield only marginal improvements over robust pairwise models. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Travelling Salesman Problem Rank (TSPRank), a hybrid pairwise-listwise ranking method. TSPRank reframes the ranking problem as a Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), a well-known combinatorial optimisation challenge that has been extensively studied for its numerous solution algorithms and applications. This approach enables the modelling of pairwise relationships and leverages combinatorial optimisation to determine the listwise ranking. This approach can be directly integrated as an additional component into embeddings generated by existing backbone models to enhance ranking performance. Our extensive experiments across three backbone models on diverse tasks, including stock ranking, information retrieval, and historical events ordering, demonstrate that TSPRank significantly outperforms both pure pairwise and listwise methods. Our qualitative analysis reveals that TSPRank's main advantage over existing methods is its ability to harness global information better while ranking. TSPRank's robustness and superior performance across different domains highlight its potential as a versatile and effective LETOR solution. The code and preprocessed data are available at https://github.com/waylonli/TSPRank-KDD2025.

Recent years have seen a notable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. With a rising number of power outages caused by these events, accurate prediction of power line outages is essential for safe and reliable operation of power grids. The Bayesian network is a probabilistic model that is very effective for predicting line outages under weather-related uncertainties. However, most existing studies in this area offer general risk assessments, but fall short of providing specific outage probabilities. In this work, we introduce a novel approach for predicting transmission line outage probabilities using a Bayesian network combined with Peter-Clark (PC) structural learning. Our approach not only enables precise outage probability calculations, but also demonstrates better scalability and robust performance, even with limited data. Case studies using data from BPA and NOAA show the effectiveness of this approach, while comparisons with several existing methods further highlight its advantages.

Multimodal sensing systems are increasingly prevalent in various real-world applications. Most existing multimodal learning approaches heavily rely on training with a large amount of complete multimodal data. However, such a setting is impractical in real-world IoT sensing applications where data is typically collected by distributed nodes with heterogeneous data modalities, and is also rarely labeled. In this paper, we propose MMBind, a new framework for multimodal learning on distributed and heterogeneous IoT data. The key idea of MMBind is to construct a pseudo-paired multimodal dataset for model training by binding data from disparate sources and incomplete modalities through a sufficiently descriptive shared modality. We demonstrate that data of different modalities observing similar events, even captured at different times and locations, can be effectively used for multimodal training. Moreover, we propose an adaptive multimodal learning architecture capable of training models with heterogeneous modality combinations, coupled with a weighted contrastive learning approach to handle domain shifts among disparate data. Evaluations on ten real-world multimodal datasets highlight that MMBind outperforms state-of-the-art baselines under varying data incompleteness and domain shift, and holds promise for advancing multimodal foundation model training in IoT applications.