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Introducing Spectral Attention for Long-Range Dependency in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sequence modeling faces challenges in capturing long-range dependencies across diverse tasks. Recent linear and transformer-based forecasters have shown superior performance in time series forecasting. However, they are constrained by their inherent inability to effectively address long-range dependencies in time series data, primarily due to using fixed-size inputs for prediction. Furthermore, they typically sacrifice essential temporal correlation among consecutive training samples by shuffling them into mini-batches. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a fast and effective Spectral Attention mechanism, which preserves temporal correlations among samples and facilitates the handling of long-range information while maintaining the base model structure. Spectral Attention preserves long-period trends through a low-pass filter and facilitates gradient to flow between samples. Spectral Attention can be seamlessly integrated into most sequence models, allowing models with fixed-sized look-back windows to capture long-range dependencies over thousands of steps. Through extensive experiments on 11 real-world time series datasets using 7 recent forecasting models, we consistently demonstrate the efficacy of our Spectral Attention mechanism, achieving state-of-the-art results.


Assessment of LLM Responses to End-user Security Questions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Answering end user security questions is challenging. While large language models (LLMs) like GPT, LLAMA, and Gemini are far from error-free, they have shown promise in answering a variety of questions outside of security. We studied LLM performance in the area of end user security by qualitatively evaluating 3 popular LLMs on 900 systematically collected end user security questions. While LLMs demonstrate broad generalist ``knowledge'' of end user security information, there are patterns of errors and limitations across LLMs consisting of stale and inaccurate answers, and indirect or unresponsive communication styles, all of which impacts the quality of information received. Based on these patterns, we suggest directions for model improvement and recommend user strategies for interacting with LLMs when seeking assistance with security.


Incentives to Build Houses, Trade Houses, or Trade House Building Skills in Simulated Worlds under Various Governing Systems or Institutions: Comparing Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning to Generative Agent-based Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It has been shown that social institutions impact human motivations to produce different behaviours, such as amount of working or specialisation in labor. With advancement in artificial intelligence (AI), specifically large language models (LLMs), now it is possible to perform in-silico simulations to test various hypotheses around this topic. Here, I simulate two somewhat similar worlds using multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework of the AI-Economist and generative agent-based model (GABM) framework of the Concordia. In the extended versions of the AI-Economist and Concordia, the agents are able to build houses, trade houses, and trade house building skill. Moreover, along the individualistic-collectivists axis, there are a set of three governing systems: Full-Libertarian, Semi-Libertarian/Utilitarian, and Full-Utilitarian. Additionally, in the extended AI-Economist, the Semi-Libertarian/Utilitarian system is further divided to a set of three governing institutions along the discriminative axis: Inclusive, Arbitrary, and Extractive. Building on these, I am able to show that among governing systems and institutions of the extended AI-Economist, under the Semi-Libertarian/Utilitarian and Inclusive government, the ratios of building houses to trading houses and trading house building skill are higher than the rest. Furthermore, I am able to show that in the extended Concordia when the central government care about equality in the society, the Full-Utilitarian system generates agents building more houses and trading more house building skill. In contrast, these economic activities are higher under the Full-Libertarian system when the central government cares about productivity in the society. Overall, the focus of this paper is to compare and contrast two advanced techniques of AI, MARL and GABM, to simulate a similar social phenomena with limitations.


Social Media Algorithms Can Shape Affective Polarization via Exposure to Antidemocratic Attitudes and Partisan Animosity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There is widespread concern about the negative impacts of social media feed ranking algorithms on political polarization. Leveraging advancements in large language models (LLMs), we develop an approach to re-rank feeds in real-time to test the effects of content that is likely to polarize: expressions of antidemocratic attitudes and partisan animosity (AAPA). In a preregistered 10-day field experiment on X/Twitter with 1,256 consented participants, we increase or decrease participants' exposure to AAPA in their algorithmically curated feeds. We observe more positive outparty feelings when AAPA exposure is decreased and more negative outparty feelings when AAPA exposure is increased. Exposure to AAPA content also results in an immediate increase in negative emotions, such as sadness and anger. The interventions do not significantly impact traditional engagement metrics such as re-post and favorite rates. These findings highlight a potential pathway for developing feed algorithms that mitigate affective polarization by addressing content that undermines the shared values required for a healthy democracy.


Developing a Safety Management System for the Autonomous Vehicle Industry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Safety Management Systems (SMSs) have been used in many safety-critical industries and are now being developed and deployed in the automated driving system (ADS)-equipped vehicle (AV) sector. Industries with decades of SMS deployment have established frameworks tailored to their specific context. Several frameworks for an AV industry SMS have been proposed or are currently under development. These frameworks borrow heavily from the aviation industry although the AV and aviation industries differ in many significant ways. In this context, there is a need to review the approach to develop an SMS that is tailored to the AV industry, building on generalized lessons learned from other safety-sensitive industries. A harmonized AV-industry SMS framework would establish a single set of SMS practices to address management of broad safety risks in an integrated manner and advance the establishment of a more mature regulatory framework. This paper outlines a proposed SMS framework for the AV industry based on robust taxonomy development and validation criteria and provides rationale for such an approach. Keywords: Safety Management System (SMS), Automated Driving System (ADS), ADS-Equipped Vehicle, Autonomous Vehicles (AV)


Predictive Analytics of Air Alerts in the Russian-Ukrainian War

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Starting from February 24, 2022, the date of Russian invasion in Ukraine, it has been very important to understand the structure and patterns of air alerts and predict when and how long an air alert is going to take place. Initially, we created a channel in Telegram Messenger social network for air alerts forecast in Ukraine. The main approach was based on loading messages from other Telegram Messenger channels, analyze them using NLP methods, and then, using experimental heuristics, make prediction when an air alert is about to start. Currently, there are many similar channels in Telegram Messenger, which publish up-to-date information about current air alerts. At the same time, there are many datasets with historical data about air alerts. Our experience of air alerts intuitively shows that there is a geospatial pattern in emerging alerts in different regions of Ukraine. As a result, knowing the cause of the alert and how alerts propagated in different regions, we can anticipate when an air alert is going to start and how long it is going to last in our region. Air alerts analytics is also considered in [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8]. The main goal of our study is to conduct an exploratory data analysis and create a predictive model to forecast the duration of air alerts.


Exploring the Adversarial Vulnerabilities of Vision-Language-Action Models in Robotics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently in robotics, Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a transformative approach, enabling robots to execute complex tasks by integrating visual and linguistic inputs within an end-to-end learning framework. While VLA models offer significant capabilities, they also introduce new attack surfaces, making them vulnerable to adversarial attacks. With these vulnerabilities largely unexplored, this paper systematically quantifies the robustness of VLA-based robotic systems. Recognizing the unique demands of robotic execution, our attack objectives target the inherent spatial and functional characteristics of robotic systems. In particular, we introduce an untargeted position-aware attack objective that leverages spatial foundations to destabilize robotic actions, and a targeted attack objective that manipulates the robotic trajectory. Additionally, we design an adversarial patch generation approach that places a small, colorful patch within the camera's view, effectively executing the attack in both digital and physical environments. Our evaluation reveals a marked degradation in task success rates, with up to a 100\% reduction across a suite of simulated robotic tasks, highlighting critical security gaps in current VLA architectures. By unveiling these vulnerabilities and proposing actionable evaluation metrics, this work advances both the understanding and enhancement of safety for VLA-based robotic systems, underscoring the necessity for developing robust defense strategies prior to physical-world deployments.


GIS Copilot: Towards an Autonomous GIS Agent for Spatial Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in Generative AI offer promising capabilities for spatial analysis. Despite their potential, the integration of generative AI with established GIS platforms remains underexplored. In this study, we propose a framework for integrating LLMs directly into existing GIS platforms, using QGIS as an example. Our approach leverages the reasoning and programming capabilities of LLMs to autonomously generate spatial analysis workflows and code through an informed agent that has comprehensive documentation of key GIS tools and parameters. The implementation of this framework resulted in the development of a "GIS Copilot" that allows GIS users to interact with QGIS using natural language commands for spatial analysis. The GIS Copilot was evaluated with over 100 spatial analysis tasks with three complexity levels: basic tasks that require one GIS tool and typically involve one data layer to perform simple operations; intermediate tasks involving multi-step processes with multiple tools, guided by user instructions; and advanced tasks which involve multi-step processes that require multiple tools but not guided by user instructions, necessitating the agent to independently decide on and executes the necessary steps. The evaluation reveals that the GIS Copilot demonstrates strong potential in automating foundational GIS operations, with a high success rate in tool selection and code generation for basic and intermediate tasks, while challenges remain in achieving full autonomy for more complex tasks. This study contributes to the emerging vision of Autonomous GIS, providing a pathway for non-experts to engage with geospatial analysis with minimal prior expertise. While full autonomy is yet to be achieved, the GIS Copilot demonstrates significant potential for simplifying GIS workflows and enhancing decision-making processes.


Whack-a-Chip: The Futility of Hardware-Centric Export Controls

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

U.S. export controls on semiconductors are widely known to be permeable, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) steadily creating state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) models with exfiltrated chips. This paper presents the first concrete, public evidence of how leading PRC AI labs evade and circumvent U.S. export controls. We examine how Chinese companies, notably Tencent, are not only using chips that are restricted under U.S. export controls but are also finding ways to circumvent these regulations by using software and modeling techniques that maximize less capable hardware. Specifically, we argue that Tencent's ability to power its Hunyuan-Large model with non-export controlled NVIDIA H20s exemplifies broader gains in efficiency in machine learning that have eroded the moat that the United States initially built via its existing export controls. Finally, we examine the implications of this finding for the future of the United States' export control strategy.


Learning Fair Robustness via Domain Mixup

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial training is one of the predominant techniques for training classifiers that are robust to adversarial attacks. Recent work, however has found that adversarial training, which makes the overall classifier robust, it does not necessarily provide equal amount of robustness for all classes. In this paper, we propose the use of mixup for the problem of learning fair robust classifiers, which can provide similar robustness across all classes. Specifically, the idea is to mix inputs from the same classes and perform adversarial training on mixed up inputs. We present a theoretical analysis of this idea for the case of linear classifiers and show that mixup combined with adversarial training can provably reduce the class-wise robustness disparity. This method not only contributes to reducing the disparity in class-wise adversarial risk, but also the class-wise natural risk. Complementing our theoretical analysis, we also provide experimental results on both synthetic data and the real world dataset (CIFAR-10), which shows improvement in class wise disparities for both natural and adversarial risks.