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Behavioural Analytics: Mathematics of the Mind

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Behavioural analytics provides insights into individual and crowd behaviour, enabling analysis of what previously happened and predictions for how people may be likely to act in the future. In defence and security, this analysis allows organisations to achieve tactical and strategic advantage through influence campaigns, a key counterpart to physical activities. Before action can be taken, online and real-world behaviour must be analysed to determine the level of threat. Huge data volumes mean that automated processes are required to attain an accurate understanding of risk. We describe the mathematical basis of technologies to analyse quotes in multiple languages. These include a Bayesian network to understand behavioural factors, state estimation algorithms for time series analysis, and machine learning algorithms for classification. We present results from studies of quotes in English, French, and Arabic, from anti-violence campaigners, politicians, extremists, and terrorists. The algorithms correctly identify extreme statements; and analysis at individual, group, and population levels detects both trends over time and sharp changes attributed to major geopolitical events. Group analysis shows that additional population characteristics can be determined, such as polarisation over particular issues and large-scale shifts in attitude. Finally, MP voting behaviour and statements from publicly-available records are analysed to determine the level of correlation between what people say and what they do.


MRJ-Agent: An Effective Jailbreak Agent for Multi-Round Dialogue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate outstanding performance in their reservoir of knowledge and understanding capabilities, but they have also been shown to be prone to illegal or unethical reactions when subjected to jailbreak attacks. To ensure their responsible deployment in critical applications, it is crucial to understand the safety capabilities and vulnerabilities of LLMs. Previous works mainly focus on jailbreak in single-round dialogue, overlooking the potential jailbreak risks in multi-round dialogues, which are a vital way humans interact with and extract information from LLMs. Some studies have increasingly concentrated on the risks associated with jailbreak in multi-round dialogues. These efforts typically involve the use of manually crafted templates or prompt engineering techniques. However, due to the inherent complexity of multi-round dialogues, their jailbreak performance is limited. To solve this problem, we propose a novel multi-round dialogue jailbreaking agent, emphasizing the importance of stealthiness in identifying and mitigating potential threats to human values posed by LLMs. We propose a risk decomposition strategy that distributes risks across multiple rounds of queries and utilizes psychological strategies to enhance attack strength. Extensive experiments show that our proposed method surpasses other attack methods and achieves state-of-the-art attack success rate. We will make the corresponding code and dataset available for future research. The code will be released soon.


Advanced Persistent Threats (APT) Attribution Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of the DRL model for malware attribution involved extensive research, iterative coding, and numerous adjustments based on the insights gathered from predecessor models and contemporary research papers. This preparatory work was essential to establish a robust foundation for the model, ensuring it could adapt and respond effectively to the dynamic nature of malware threats. Initially, the model struggled with low accuracy levels, but through persistent adjustments to its architecture and learning algorithms, accuracy improved dramatically from about 7 percent to over 73 percent in early iterations. By the end of the training, the model consistently reached accuracy levels near 98 percent, demonstrating its strong capability to accurately recognise and attribute malware activities. This upward trajectory in training accuracy is graphically represented in the Figure, which vividly illustrates the model maturation and increasing proficiency over time.


Where AI Assurance Might Go Wrong: Initial lessons from engineering of critical systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We draw on our experience working on system and software assurance and evaluation for systems important to society to summarise how safety engineering is performed in traditional critical systems, such as aircraft flight control. We analyse how this critical systems perspective might support the development and implementation of AI Safety Frameworks. We present the analysis in terms of: system engineering, safety and risk analysis, and decision analysis and support. We consider four key questions: What is the system? How good does it have to be? What is the impact of criticality on system development? and How much should we trust it? We identify topics worthy of further discussion. In particular, we are concerned that system boundaries are not broad enough, that the tolerability and nature of the risks are not sufficiently elaborated, and that the assurance methods lack theories that would allow behaviours to be adequately assured. We advocate the use of assurance cases based on Assurance 2.0 to support decision making in which the criticality of the decision as well as the criticality of the system are evaluated. We point out the orders of magnitude difference in confidence needed in critical rather than everyday systems and how everyday techniques do not scale in rigour. Finally we map our findings in detail to two of the questions posed by the FAISC organisers and we note that the engineering of critical systems has evolved through open and diverse discussion. We hope that topics identified here will support the post-FAISC dialogues.


KG-TRICK: Unifying Textual and Relational Information Completion of Knowledge for Multilingual Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multilingual knowledge graphs (KGs) provide high-quality relational and textual information for various NLP applications, but they are often incomplete, especially in non-English languages. Previous research has shown that combining information from KGs in different languages aids either Knowledge Graph Completion (KGC), the task of predicting missing relations between entities, or Knowledge Graph Enhancement (KGE), the task of predicting missing textual information for entities. Although previous efforts have considered KGC and KGE as independent tasks, we hypothesize that they are interdependent and mutually beneficial. To this end, we introduce KG-TRICK, a novel sequence-to-sequence framework that unifies the tasks of textual and relational information completion for multilingual KGs. KG-TRICK demonstrates that: i) it is possible to unify the tasks of KGC and KGE into a single framework, and ii) combining textual information from multiple languages is beneficial to improve the completeness of a KG. As part of our contributions, we also introduce WikiKGE10++, the largest manually-curated benchmark for textual information completion of KGs, which features over 25,000 entities across 10 diverse languages.


Mechanics and Design of Metastructured Auxetic Patches with Bio-inspired Materials

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Metastructured auxetic patches, characterized by negative Poisson's ratios, offer unique mechanical properties that closely resemble the behavior of human tissues and organs. As a result, these patches have gained significant attention for their potential applications in organ repair and tissue regeneration. This study focuses on neural networks-based computational modeling of auxetic patches with a sinusoidal metastructure fabricated from silk fibroin, a bio-inspired material known for its biocompatibility and strength. The primary objective of this research is to introduce a novel, data-driven framework for patch design. To achieve this, we conducted experimental fabrication and mechanical testing to determine material properties and validate the corresponding finite element models. Finite element simulations were then employed to generate the necessary data, while greedy sampling, an active learning technique, was utilized to reduce the computational cost associated with data labeling. Two neural networks were trained to accurately predict Poisson's ratios and stresses for strains up to 15\%, respectively. Both models achieved $R^2$ scores exceeding 0.995, which indicates highly reliable predictions. Building on this, we developed a neural network-based design model capable of tailoring patch designs to achieve specific mechanical properties. This model demonstrated superior performance when compared to traditional optimization methods, such as genetic algorithms, by providing more efficient and precise design solutions. The proposed framework represents a significant advancement in the design of bio-inspired metastructures for medical applications, paving the way for future innovations in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.


HIVEX: A High-Impact Environment Suite for Multi-Agent Research (extended version)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Games have been vital test beds for the rapid development of Agent-based research. Remarkable progress has been achieved in the past, but it is unclear if the findings equip for real-world problems. While pressure grows, some of the most critical ecological challenges can find mitigation and prevention solutions through technology and its applications. Most real-world domains include multi-agent scenarios and require machine-machine and human-machine collaboration. Open-source environments have not advanced and are often toy scenarios, too abstract or not suitable for multi-agent research. By mimicking real-world problems and increasing the complexity of environments, we hope to advance state-of-the-art multi-agent research and inspire researchers to work on immediate real-world problems. Here, we present HIVEX, an environment suite to benchmark multi-agent research focusing on ecological challenges. HIVEX includes the following environments: Wind Farm Control, Wildfire Resource Management, Drone-Based Reforestation, Ocean Plastic Collection, and Aerial Wildfire Suppression. We provide environments, training examples, and baselines for the main and sub-tasks. All trained models resulting from the experiments of this work are hosted on Hugging Face. We also provide a leaderboard on Hugging Face and encourage the community to submit models trained on our environment suite.


Multimodal Multihop Source Retrieval for Web Question Answering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work deals with the challenge of learning and reasoning over multi-modal multi-hop question answering (QA). We propose a graph reasoning network based on the semantic structure of the sentences to learn multi-source reasoning paths and find the supporting facts across both image and text modalities for answering the question. In this paper, we investigate the importance of graph structure for multi-modal multi-hop question answering. Our analysis is centered on WebQA. We construct a strong baseline model, that finds relevant sources using a pairwise classification task. We establish that, with the proper use of feature representations from pre-trained models, graph structure helps in improving multi-modal multi-hop question answering. We point out that both graph structure and adjacency matrix are task-related prior knowledge, and graph structure can be leveraged to improve the retrieval performance for the task. Experiments and visualized analysis demonstrate that message propagation over graph networks or the entire graph structure can replace massive multimodal transformers with token-wise cross-attention. We demonstrated the applicability of our method and show a performance gain of \textbf{4.6$\%$} retrieval F1score over the transformer baselines, despite being a very light model. We further demonstrated the applicability of our model to a large scale retrieval setting.


Machine learning applications in archaeological practices: a review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence and machine learning applications in archaeology have increased significantly in recent years, and these now span all subfields, geographical regions, and time periods. The prevalence and success of these applications have remained largely unexamined, as recent reviews on the use of machine learning in archaeology have only focused only on specific subfields of archaeology. Our review examined an exhaustive corpus of 135 articles published between 1997 and 2022. We observed a significant increase in the number of relevant publications from 2019 onwards. Automatic structure detection and artefact classification were the most represented tasks in the articles reviewed, followed by taphonomy, and archaeological predictive modelling. From the review, clustering and unsupervised methods were underrepresented compared to supervised models. Artificial neural networks and ensemble learning account for two thirds of the total number of models used. However, if machine learning is gaining in popularity it remains subject to misunderstanding. We observed, in some cases, poorly defined requirements and caveats of the machine learning methods used. Furthermore, the goals and the needs of machine learning applications for archaeological purposes are in some cases unclear or poorly expressed. To address this, we proposed a workflow guide for archaeologists to develop coherent and consistent methodologies adapted to their research questions, project scale and data. As in many other areas, machine learning is rapidly becoming an important tool in archaeological research and practice, useful for the analyses of large and multivariate data, although not without limitations. This review highlights the importance of well-defined and well-reported structured methodologies and collaborative practices to maximise the potential of applications of machine learning methods in archaeology.


Beyond Factual Accuracy: Evaluating Coverage of Diverse Factual Information in Long-form Text Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents ICAT, an evaluation framework for measuring coverage of diverse factual information in long-form text generation. ICAT breaks down a long output text into a list of atomic claims and not only verifies each claim through retrieval from a (reliable) knowledge source, but also computes the alignment between the atomic factual claims and various aspects expected to be presented in the output. We study three implementations of the ICAT framework, each with a different assumption on the availability of aspects and alignment method. By adopting data from the diversification task in the TREC Web Track and the ClueWeb corpus, we evaluate the ICAT framework. We demonstrate strong correlation with human judgments and provide comprehensive evaluation across multiple state-of-the-art LLMs. Our framework further offers interpretable and fine-grained analysis of diversity and coverage. Its modular design allows for easy adaptation to different domains and datasets, making it a valuable tool for evaluating the qualitative aspects of long-form responses produced by LLMs.