Accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries is essential for ensuring safety, reducing maintenance costs, and optimizing usage. However, predicting RUL is challenging due to the nonlinear characteristics of the degradation caused by complex chemical reactions. Machine learning allows precise predictions by learning the latent functions of degradation relationships based on cycling behavior. This study introduces an accurate RUL prediction approach based on feature engineering and DLinear, applied to the dataset from NASA's Prognostics Center of Excellence. Among the 20 features generated from current, voltage, temperature, and time provided in this dataset, key features contributing to degradation are selected using Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapley values. Shapley value-based feature selection effectively reflects cell-to-cell variability, showing similar importance rankings across all cells. The DLinear-based RUL prediction using key features efficiently captures the time-series trend, demonstrating significantly better performance compared to Long Short-Term Memory and Transformer models.

--Foundation models are rapidly improving the capability of robots in performing everyday tasks autonomously such as meal preparation, yet robots will still need to be instructed by humans due to model performance, the difficulty of capturing user preferences, and the need for user agency. Robots can be instructed using various methods--natural language conveys immediate instructions but can be abstract or ambiguous, whereas end-user programming supports longer-horizon tasks but interfaces face difficulties in capturing user intent. In this work, we propose using direct manipulation of images as an alternative paradigm to instruct robots, and introduce a specific instantiation called ImageInThat which allows users to perform direct manipulation on images in a timeline-style interface to generate robot instructions. Through a user study, we demonstrate the efficacy of ImageInThat to instruct robots in kitchen manipulation tasks, comparing it to a text-based natural language instruction method. The results show that participants were faster with ImageInThat and preferred to use it over the text-based method. Supplementary material including code can be found at: https://image-in-that.github.io/. Advances in foundation models are rapidly improving the capabilities of autonomous robots, bringing us closer to robots entering our homes where they can complete everyday tasks. However, the need for human instructions will persist-- whether due to limitations in robot policies, models trained on internet-scale data that may not capture the specifics of users' environments or preferences, or simply the desire for users to maintain control over their robots' actions. For instance, a robot asked to wash dishes might follow a standard cleaning routine--e.g., by placing everything in the dishwasher and then putting them away in the cupboard--but may not respect a user's preferences-- e.g., needing to wash delicate glasses "by hand" or organizing cleaned dishes in a specific way--thus necessitating human intervention. We introduce a new paradigm for instructing robots through the direct manipulation of images. ImageInThat is a specific instantiation of this paradigm where users can manipulate images in a timeline-style interface to create instructions for the robot to execute. Existing methods for instructing robots range from those that focus on commanding the robot for the purpose of immediate execution ( e.g., uttering a language instruction to wash glasses by hand [1]) to methods that program the robot such as learning from demonstration [2] or end-user robot programming [3]. However, prior methods, whether they are used for commanding or programming, have notable drawbacks.

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of four significant California wildfires: Palisades, Eaton, Kenneth, and Hurst, examining their impacts through multiple dimensions, including land cover change, jurisdictional management, structural damage, and demographic vulnerability. Using the Chebyshev-Kolmogorov-Arnold network model applied to Sentinel-2 imagery, the extent of burned areas was mapped, ranging from 315.36 to 10,960.98 hectares. Our analysis revealed that shrubland ecosystems were consistently the most affected, comprising 57.4-75.8% of burned areas across all events. The jurisdictional assessment demonstrated varying management complexities, from singular authority (98.7% in the Palisades Fire) to distributed management across multiple agencies. A structural impact analysis revealed significant disparities between urban interface fires (Eaton: 9,869 structures; Palisades: 8,436 structures) and rural events (Kenneth: 24 structures; Hurst: 17 structures). The demographic analysis showed consistent gender distributions, with 50.9% of the population identified as female and 49.1% as male. Working-age populations made up the majority of the affected populations, ranging from 53.7% to 54.1%, with notable temporal shifts in post-fire periods. The study identified strong correlations between urban interface proximity, structural damage, and population exposure. The Palisades and Eaton fires affected over 20,000 people each, compared to fewer than 500 in rural events. These findings offer valuable insights for the development of targeted wildfire management strategies, particularly in wildland urban interface zones, and emphasize the need for age- and gender-conscious approaches in emergency response planning.

Current work on forecasting emergency department (ED) admissions focuses on disease aggregates or singular disease types. However, given differences in the dynamics of individual diseases, it is unlikely that any single forecasting model would accurately account for each disease and for all time, leading to significant forecast model uncertainty. Yet, forecasting models for ED admissions to-date do not explore the utility of forecast combinations to improve forecast accuracy and stability. It is also unknown whether improvements in forecast accuracy can be yield from (1) incorporating a large number of environmental and anthropogenic covariates or (2) forecasting total ED causes by aggregating cause-specific ED forecasts. To address this gap, we propose high-dimensional forecast combination schemes to combine a large number of forecasting individual models for forecasting cause-specific ED admissions over multiple causes and forecast horizons. We use time series data of ED admissions with an extensive set of explanatory lagged variables at the national level, including meteorological/ambient air pollutant variables and ED admissions of all 16 causes studied. We show that the simple forecast combinations yield forecast accuracies of around 3.81%-23.54% across causes. Furthermore, forecast combinations outperform individual forecasting models, in more than 50% of scenarios (across all ED admission categories and horizons) in a statistically significant manner. Inclusion of high-dimensional covariates and aggregating cause-specific forecasts to provide all-cause ED forecasts provided modest improvements in forecast accuracy. Forecasting cause-specific ED admissions can provide fine-scale forward guidance on resource optimization and pandemic preparedness and forecast combinations can be used to hedge against model uncertainty when forecasting across a wide range of admission categories.

While internet-scale data often comes in pairs (e.g., audio/image, image/text), we often want to perform inferences over modalities unseen together in the training data (e.g., audio/text). Empirically, this can often be addressed by learning multiple contrastive embedding spaces between existing modality pairs, implicitly hoping that unseen modality pairs will end up being aligned. This theoretical paper proves that this hope is well founded, under certain assumptions. Starting with the proper Bayesian approach of integrating out intermediate modalities, we show that directly comparing the representations of data from unpaired modalities can recover the same likelihood ratio. Our analysis builds on prior work on the geometry and probabilistic interpretation of contrastive representations, showing how these representations can answer many of the same inferences as probabilistic graphical models. Our analysis suggests two new ways of using contrastive representations: in settings with pre-trained contrastive models, and for handling language ambiguity in reinforcement learning. Our numerical experiments study the importance of our assumptions and demonstrate these new applications. Much of the appeal of contrastive learning is that it gives a "plug-n-play" approach for swapping one modality for another. Because representations from different modalities are trained to be aligned when representing the same object, the hope is that (say) a language representation and image representation of the same scene can be used as substitutes. This property is practically appealing for at least two reasons. First, it allows us to make use of pre-trained models. If you have a model that wants to make use of (say) language input and you have access to a pre-trained image-language contrastive model, you might simply train your model on the pre-trained image representations and hope that it will continue to work when you swap in the language representations.

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the interpretability of posterior predictive distributions. We demonstrate that under a discretized prior for the inner layer weights, we can exactly characterize the posterior predictive distribution as a Gaussian mixture. This setting allows us to define equivalence classes of network parameter values which produce the same likelihood (training error) and to relate the elements of these classes to the network's scaling regime -- defined via ratios of the training sample size, the size of each layer, and the number of final layer parameters. Of particular interest are distinct parameter realizations that map to low training error and yet correspond to distinct modes in the posterior predictive distribution. We identify settings that exhibit such predictive multimodality, and thus provide insight into the accuracy of unimodal posterior approximations. We also characterize the capacity of a model to "learn from data" by evaluating contraction of the posterior predictive in different scaling regimes.

Dataset poisoning attacks present a threat against machine learning models because they introduce subtle, ostensibly undetectable changes to the data on which the model will be trained. Moreover, attackers often craft attacks to deterministically change a model's behavior by invoking a latent trigger that they set in the resultant model. We will introduce the precise threat model in which we are interested in Section 2. Researchers often frame dataset poisoning and its analysis from the point of view of optimization theory [1]-[5]. E.g., in the computer vision setting, one might attempt to alter as few pixels as possible in as few images as possible while still producing targeted misclassifications. For text generation, one might aim to change as few tokens as possible to as few corpus sentences as possible while causing targeted semantic misalignment on the next phrase or sentence. In general, this vantage is convenient for conducting attacks. Even locally optimizing the criteria for an attack typically yields a dataset that effectively attacks models trained on it. From this perspective, it is natural to also frame detection of data poisoning as an optimization problem. For example, in [4], it is hypothesized that poisoning a dataset impacts the most dominant features in neural networks trained on it and it is shown that under this assumption poisoning can be provably detected by solving an optimization problem.

Data assimilation plays a pivotal role in understanding and predicting turbulent systems within geoscience and weather forecasting, where data assimilation is used to address three fundamental challenges, i.e., high-dimensionality, nonlinearity, and partial observations. Recent advances in machine learning (ML)-based data assimilation methods have demonstrated encouraging results. In this work, we develop an ensemble score filter (EnSF) that integrates image inpainting to solve the data assimilation problems with partial observations. The EnSF method exploits an exclusively designed training-free diffusion models to solve high-dimensional nonlinear data assimilation problems. Its performance has been successfully demonstrated in the context of having full observations, i.e., all the state variables are directly or indirectly observed. However, because the EnSF does not use a covariance matrix to capture the dependence between the observed and unobserved state variables, it is nontrivial to extend the original EnSF method to the partial observation scenario. In this work, we incorporate various image inpainting techniques into the EnSF to predict the unobserved states during data assimilation. At each filtering step, we first use the diffusion model to estimate the observed states by integrating the likelihood information into the score function. Then, we use image inpainting methods to predict the unobserved state variables. We demonstrate the performance of the EnSF with inpainting by tracking the Surface Quasi-Geostrophic (SQG) model dynamics under a variety of scenarios. The successful proof of concept paves the way to more in-depth investigations on exploiting modern image inpainting techniques to advance data assimilation methodology for practical geoscience and weather forecasting problems.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, which lead to incorrect predictions. In black-box settings, transfer attacks can be conveniently used to generate adversarial examples. However, such examples tend to overfit the specific architecture and feature representations of the source model, resulting in poor attack performance against other target models. To overcome this drawback, we propose a novel model modification-based transfer attack: Blurred-Dilated method (BD) in this paper. In summary, BD works by reducing downsampling while introducing BlurPool and dilated convolutions in the source model.

Innovation is a major driver of economic and social development, and information about many kinds of innovation is embedded in semi-structured data from patents and patent applications. Though the impact and novelty of innovations expressed in patent data are difficult to measure through traditional means, machine learning offers a promising set of techniques for evaluating novelty, summarizing contributions, and embedding semantics. In this paper, we introduce the Harvard USPTO Patent Dataset (HUPD), a large-scale, well-structured, and multi-purpose corpus of English-language patent applications filed to the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2004 and 2018. With more than 4.5 million patent documents, HUPD is two to three times larger than comparable corpora. Unlike other NLP patent datasets, HUPD contains the inventor-submitted versions of patent applications, not the final versions of granted patents, allowing us to study patentability at the time of filing using NLP methods for the first time.