We introduce novel techniques to enhance Frank-Wolfe algorithms by leveraging function smoothness beyond traditional short steps. Our study focuses on Frank-Wolfe algorithms with step sizes that incorporate primal-dual guarantees, offering practical stopping criteria. We present a new Frank-Wolfe algorithm utilizing an optimistic framework and provide a primal-dual convergence proof. Additionally, we propose a generalized short-step strategy aimed at optimizing a computable primal-dual gap. Interestingly, this new generalized short-step strategy is also applicable to gradient descent algorithms beyond Frank-Wolfe methods. As a byproduct, our work revisits and refines primal-dual techniques for analyzing Frank-Wolfe algorithms, achieving tighter primal-dual convergence rates. Empirical results demonstrate that our optimistic algorithm outperforms existing methods, highlighting its practical advantages.

Antibiotics are often grouped by their mechanisms of action, such as blocking protein synthesis, disrupting folate biosynthesis, changing cell wall construction, compromising the cell membrane integrity and affecting DNA replication [93, 25]. These antibiotics, whether created in labs or found in nature, serve as the primary defence against bacterial infections. However, bacteria employ a series of strategies in response to resist these antibiotics, including inactivating antibiotics through enzymatic degradation, altering the antibiotic target, modifying cell membrane permeability, and using efflux pumps to maintain intracellular antibiotic concentrations of antibiotics below inhibitory levels [25]. Moreover, the gene transfer of antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) further aggravates this challenge [92].

Autonomous systems are increasingly expected to operate in the presence of adversaries, though an adversary may infer sensitive information simply by observing a system, without even needing to interact with it. Therefore, in this work we present a deceptive decision-making framework that not only conceals sensitive information, but in fact actively misleads adversaries about it. We model autonomous systems as Markov decision processes, and we consider adversaries that attempt to infer their reward functions using inverse reinforcement learning. To counter such efforts, we present two regularization strategies for policy synthesis problems that actively deceive an adversary about a system's underlying rewards. The first form of deception is ``diversionary'', and it leads an adversary to draw any false conclusion about what the system's reward function is. The second form of deception is ``targeted'', and it leads an adversary to draw a specific false conclusion about what the system's reward function is. We then show how each form of deception can be implemented in policy optimization problems, and we analytically bound the loss in total accumulated reward that is induced by deception. Next, we evaluate these developments in a multi-agent sequential decision-making problem with one real agent and multiple decoys. We show that diversionary deception can cause the adversary to believe that the most important agent is the least important, while attaining a total accumulated reward that is $98.83\%$ of its optimal, non-deceptive value. Similarly, we show that targeted deception can make any decoy appear to be the most important agent, while still attaining a total accumulated reward that is $99.25\%$ of its optimal, non-deceptive value.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to produce predictions that serve as input data in subsequent statistical analyses. For example, computer vision predictions of economic and environmental indicators based on satellite imagery are used in downstream regressions; similarly, language models are widely used to approximate human ratings and opinions in social science research. However, failure to properly account for errors in the machine learning predictions renders standard statistical procedures invalid. Prior work uses what we call the Predict-Then-Debias estimator to give valid confidence intervals when machine learning algorithms impute missing variables, assuming a small complete sample from the population of interest. We expand the scope by introducing bootstrap confidence intervals that apply when the complete data is a nonuniform (i.e., weighted, stratified, or clustered) sample and to settings where an arbitrary subset of features is imputed. Importantly, the method can be applied to many settings without requiring additional calculations. We prove that these confidence intervals are valid under no assumptions on the quality of the machine learning model and are no wider than the intervals obtained by methods that do not use machine learning predictions.

Federated Learning (FL) is increasingly being adopted in military collaborations to develop Large Language Models (LLMs) while preserving data sovereignty. However, prompt injection attacks-malicious manipulations of input prompts-pose new threats that may undermine operational security, disrupt decision-making, and erode trust among allies. This perspective paper highlights four potential vulnerabilities in federated military LLMs: secret data leakage, free-rider exploitation, system disruption, and misinformation spread. To address these potential risks, we propose a human-AI collaborative framework that introduces both technical and policy countermeasures. On the technical side, our framework uses red/blue team wargaming and quality assurance to detect and mitigate adversarial behaviors of shared LLM weights. On the policy side, it promotes joint AI-human policy development and verification of security protocols. Our findings will guide future research and emphasize proactive strategies for emerging military contexts.

The rapid integration of machine learning (ML) predictors into in silico medicine has revolutionized the estimation of quantities of interest (QIs) that are otherwise challenging to measure directly. However, the credibility of these predictors is critical, especially when they inform high-stakes healthcare decisions. This position paper presents a consensus statement developed by experts within the In Silico World Community of Practice. We outline twelve key statements forming the theoretical foundation for evaluating the credibility of ML predictors, emphasizing the necessity of causal knowledge, rigorous error quantification, and robustness to biases. By comparing ML predictors with biophysical models, we highlight unique challenges associated with implicit causal knowledge and propose strategies to ensure reliability and applicability. Our recommendations aim to guide researchers, developers, and regulators in the rigorous assessment and deployment of ML predictors in clinical and biomedical contexts.

Tax evasion, usually the largest component of an informal economy, is a persistent challenge over history with significant socio-economic implications. Many socio-economic studies investigate its dynamics, including influencing factors, the role and influence of taxation policies, and the prediction of the tax evasion volume over time. These studies assumed such behavior is given, as observed in the real world, neglecting the "big bang" of such activity in a population. To this end, computational economy studies adopted developments in computer simulations, in general, and recent innovations in artificial intelligence (AI), in particular, to simulate and study informal economy appearance in various socio-economic settings. This study presents a novel computational framework to examine the dynamics of tax evasion and the emergence of informal economic activity. Employing an agent-based simulation powered by Large Language Models and Deep Reinforcement Learning, the framework is uniquely designed to allow informal economic behaviors to emerge organically, without presupposing their existence or explicitly signaling agents about the possibility of evasion. This provides a rigorous approach for exploring the socio-economic determinants of compliance behavior. The experimental design, comprising model validation and exploratory phases, demonstrates the framework's robustness in replicating theoretical economic behaviors. Findings indicate that individual personality traits, external narratives, enforcement probabilities, and the perceived efficiency of public goods provision significantly influence both the timing and extent of informal economic activity. The results underscore that efficient public goods provision and robust enforcement mechanisms are complementary; neither alone is sufficient to curtail informal activity effectively.

The release of DeepSeek R1 stunned Wall Street and Silicon Valley this month, spooking investors and impressing tech leaders. But amid all the talk, many overlooked a critical detail about the way the new Chinese AI model functions--a nuance that has researchers worried about humanity's ability to control sophisticated new artificial intelligence systems. It's all down to an innovation in how DeepSeek R1 was trained--one that led to surprising behaviors in an early version of the model, which researchers described in the technical documentation accompanying its release. During testing, researchers noticed that the model would spontaneously switch between English and Chinese while it was solving problems. When they forced it to stick to one language, thus making it easier for users to follow along, they found that the system's ability to solve the same problems would diminish.

The fast-rising Chinese AI lab DeepSeek is sparking national security concerns in the U.S., over fears that its AI models could be used by the Chinese government to spy on American civilians, learn proprietary secrets, and wage influence campaigns. In her first press briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the National Security Council was "looking into" the potential security implications of DeepSeek. This comes amid news that the U.S. Navy has banned use of DeepSeek among its ranks due to "potential security and ethical concerns." DeepSeek, which currently tops the Apple App Store in the U.S., marks a major inflection point in the AI arms race between the U.S. and China. For the last couple years, many leading technologists and political leaders have argued that whichever country developed AI the fastest will have a huge economic and military advantage over its rivals. DeepSeek shows that China's AI has developed much faster than many had believed, despite efforts from American policymakers to slow its progress.

In a section on "labour market risks", the report warns that the impact on jobs will "likely be profound", particularly if AI agents – tools that can carry out tasks without human intervention – become highly capable. "General-purpose AI, especially if it continues to advance rapidly, has the potential to automate a very wide range of tasks, which could have a significant effect on the labour market. This means that many people could lose their current jobs," says the report. The report adds that many economists believe job losses could be offset by the creation of new jobs or demand from sectors not touched by automation. According to the International Monetary Fund, about 60% of jobs in advanced economies such as the US and UK are exposed to AI and half of these jobs may be negatively affected.