Government
Bayesian SegNet for Semantic Segmentation with Improved Interpretation of Microstructural Evolution During Irradiation of Materials
Oostrom, Marjolein, Hagen, Alex, LaHaye, Nicole, Pazdernik, Karl
Understanding the relationship between the evolution of microstructures of irradiated LiAlO2 pellets and tritium diffusion, retention and release could improve predictions of tritium-producing burnable absorber rod performance. Given expert-labeled segmented images of irradiated and unirradiated pellets, we trained Deep Convolutional Neural Networks to segment images into defect, grain, and boundary classes. Qualitative microstructural information was calculated from these segmented images to facilitate the comparison of unirradiated and irradiated pellets. We tested modifications to improve the sensitivity of the model, including incorporating meta-data into the model and utilizing uncertainty quantification. The predicted segmentation was similar to the expert-labeled segmentation for most methods of microstructural qualification, including pixel proportion, defect area, and defect density. Overall, the high performance metrics for the best models for both irradiated and unirradiated images shows that utilizing neural network models is a viable alternative to expert-labeled images.
Multi-Agent Risks from Advanced AI
Hammond, Lewis, Chan, Alan, Clifton, Jesse, Hoelscher-Obermaier, Jason, Khan, Akbir, McLean, Euan, Smith, Chandler, Barfuss, Wolfram, Foerster, Jakob, Gavenčiak, Tomáš, Han, The Anh, Hughes, Edward, Kovařík, Vojtěch, Kulveit, Jan, Leibo, Joel Z., Oesterheld, Caspar, de Witt, Christian Schroeder, Shah, Nisarg, Wellman, Michael, Bova, Paolo, Cimpeanu, Theodor, Ezell, Carson, Feuillade-Montixi, Quentin, Franklin, Matija, Kran, Esben, Krawczuk, Igor, Lamparth, Max, Lauffer, Niklas, Meinke, Alexander, Motwani, Sumeet, Reuel, Anka, Conitzer, Vincent, Dennis, Michael, Gabriel, Iason, Gleave, Adam, Hadfield, Gillian, Haghtalab, Nika, Kasirzadeh, Atoosa, Krier, Sébastien, Larson, Kate, Lehman, Joel, Parkes, David C., Piliouras, Georgios, Rahwan, Iyad
The rapid development of advanced AI agents and the imminent deployment of many instances of these agents will give rise to multi-agent systems of unprecedented complexity. These systems pose novel and under-explored risks. In this report, we provide a structured taxonomy of these risks by identifying three key failure modes (miscoordination, conflict, and collusion) based on agents' incentives, as well as seven key risk factors (information asymmetries, network effects, selection pressures, destabilising dynamics, commitment problems, emergent agency, and multi-agent security) that can underpin them. We highlight several important instances of each risk, as well as promising directions to help mitigate them. By anchoring our analysis in a range of real-world examples and experimental evidence, we illustrate the distinct challenges posed by multi-agent systems and their implications for the safety, governance, and ethics of advanced AI.
Can Community Notes Replace Professional Fact-Checkers?
Borenstein, Nadav, Warren, Greta, Elliott, Desmond, Augenstein, Isabelle
Two commonly-employed strategies to combat the rise of misinformation on social media are (i) fact-checking by professional organisations and (ii) community moderation by platform users. Policy changes by Twitter/X and, more recently, Meta, signal a shift away from partnerships with fact-checking organisations and towards an increased reliance on crowdsourced community notes. However, the extent and nature of dependencies between fact-checking and helpful community notes remain unclear. To address these questions, we use language models to annotate a large corpus of Twitter/X community notes with attributes such as topic, cited sources, and whether they refute claims tied to broader misinformation narratives. Our analysis reveals that community notes cite fact-checking sources up to five times more than previously reported. Fact-checking is especially crucial for notes on posts linked to broader narratives, which are twice as likely to reference fact-checking sources compared to other sources. In conclusion, our results show that successful community moderation heavily relies on professional fact-checking.
Benchmarking LLMs for Political Science: A United Nations Perspective
Liang, Yueqing, Yang, Liangwei, Wang, Chen, Xia, Congying, Meng, Rui, Xu, Xiongxiao, Wang, Haoran, Payani, Ali, Shu, Kai
Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant advances in natural language processing, yet their potential for high-stake political decision-making remains largely unexplored. This paper addresses the gap by focusing on the application of LLMs to the United Nations (UN) decision-making process, where the stakes are particularly high and political decisions can have far-reaching consequences. We introduce a novel dataset comprising publicly available UN Security Council (UNSC) records from 1994 to 2024, including draft resolutions, voting records, and diplomatic speeches. Using this dataset, we propose the United Nations Benchmark (UNBench), the first comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs across four interconnected political science tasks: co-penholder judgment, representative voting simulation, draft adoption prediction, and representative statement generation. These tasks span the three stages of the UN decision-making process--drafting, voting, and discussing--and aim to assess LLMs' ability to understand and simulate political dynamics. Our experimental analysis demonstrates the potential and challenges of applying LLMs in this domain, providing insights into their strengths and limitations in political science. This work contributes to the growing intersection of AI and political science, opening new avenues for research and practical applications in global governance. The UNBench Repository can be accessed at: https://github.com/yueqingliang1/UNBench.
CND-IDS: Continual Novelty Detection for Intrusion Detection Systems
Fuhrman, Sean, Gungor, Onat, Rosing, Tajana
--Intrusion detection systems (IDS) play a crucial role in IoT and network security by monitoring system data and alerting to suspicious activities. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising solution for IDS, offering highly accurate intrusion detection. However, ML-IDS solutions often overlook two critical aspects needed to build reliable systems: continually changing data streams and a lack of attack labels. Streaming network traffic and associated cyber attacks are continually changing, which can degrade the performance of deployed ML models. Labeling attack data, such as zero-day attacks, in real-world intrusion scenarios may not be feasible, making the use of ML solutions that do not rely on attack labels necessary. T o address both these challenges, we propose CND-IDS, a continual novelty detection IDS framework which consists of (i) a learning-based feature extractor that continuously updates new feature representations of the system data, and (ii) a novelty detector that identifies new cyber attacks by leveraging principal component analysis (PCA) reconstruction. Our results on realistic intrusion datasets show that CND-IDS achieves up to 6.1 F-score improvement, and up to 6.5 improved forward transfer over the SOT A unsupervised continual learning algorithm. Our code will be released upon acceptance. I NTRODUCTION In today's digital landscape, cybersecurity is essential for safeguarding sensitive data and maintaining trust in digital systems. With cyber threats becoming more sophisticated, organizations must adopt thorough security measures to protect against breaches and unauthorized access [1].
Dehumanizing Machines: Mitigating Anthropomorphic Behaviors in Text Generation Systems
Cheng, Myra, Blodgett, Su Lin, DeVrio, Alicia, Egede, Lisa, Olteanu, Alexandra
As text generation systems' outputs are increasingly anthropomorphic -- perceived as human-like -- scholars have also raised increasing concerns about how such outputs can lead to harmful outcomes, such as users over-relying or developing emotional dependence on these systems. How to intervene on such system outputs to mitigate anthropomorphic behaviors and their attendant harmful outcomes, however, remains understudied. With this work, we aim to provide empirical and theoretical grounding for developing such interventions. To do so, we compile an inventory of interventions grounded both in prior literature and a crowdsourced study where participants edited system outputs to make them less human-like. Drawing on this inventory, we also develop a conceptual framework to help characterize the landscape of possible interventions, articulate distinctions between different types of interventions, and provide a theoretical basis for evaluating the effectiveness of different interventions.
Neurosymbolic artificial intelligence via large language models and coherence-driven inference
Huntsman, Steve, Thomas, Jewell
We devise an algorithm to generate sets of propositions that objectively instantiate graphs that support coherence-driven inference. We then benchmark the ability of large language models (LLMs) to reconstruct coherence graphs from (a straightforward transformation of) propositions expressed in natural language, with promising results from a single prompt to models optimized for reasoning. Combining coherence-driven inference with consistency evaluations by neural models may advance the state of the art in machine cognition.
Image compositing is all you need for data augmentation
Shermaine, Ang Jia Ning, Lazarou, Michalis, Stathaki, Tania
This paper investigates the impact of various data augmentation techniques on the performance of object detection models. Specifically, we explore classical augmentation methods, image compositing, and advanced generative models such as Stable Diffusion XL and ControlNet. The objective of this work is to enhance model robustness and improve detection accuracy, particularly when working with limited annotated data. Using YOLOv8, we fine-tune the model on a custom dataset consisting of commercial and military aircraft, applying different augmentation strategies. Our experiments show that image compositing offers the highest improvement in detection performance, as measured by precision, recall, and mean Average Precision (mAP@0.50). Other methods, including Stable Diffusion XL and ControlNet, also demonstrate significant gains, highlighting the potential of advanced data augmentation techniques for object detection tasks. The results underline the importance of dataset diversity and augmentation in achieving better generalization and performance in real-world applications. Future work will explore the integration of semi-supervised learning methods and further optimizations to enhance model performance across larger and more complex datasets.
Playing Hex and Counter Wargames using Reinforcement Learning and Recurrent Neural Networks
Palma, Guilherme, Santos, Pedro A., Dias, João
Hex and Counter Wargames are adversarial two-player simulations of real military conflicts requiring complex strategic decision-making. Unlike classical board games, these games feature intricate terrain/unit interactions, unit stacking, large maps of varying sizes, and simultaneous move and combat decisions involving hundreds of units. This paper introduces a novel system designed to address the strategic complexity of Hex and Counter Wargames by integrating cutting-edge advancements in Recurrent Neural Networks with AlphaZero, a reliable modern Reinforcement Learning algorithm. The system utilizes a new Neural Network architecture developed from existing research, incorporating innovative state and action representations tailored to these specific game environments. With minimal training, our solution has shown promising results in typical scenarios, demonstrating the ability to generalize across different terrain and tactical situations. Additionally, we explore the system's potential to scale to larger map sizes. The developed system is openly accessible, facilitating continued research and exploration within this challenging domain.
Fine-grained Fallacy Detection with Human Label Variation
Ramponi, Alan, Daffara, Agnese, Tonelli, Sara
We introduce Faina, the first dataset for fallacy detection that embraces multiple plausible answers and natural disagreement. Faina includes over 11K span-level annotations with overlaps across 20 fallacy types on social media posts in Italian about migration, climate change, and public health given by two expert annotators. Through an extensive annotation study that allowed discussion over multiple rounds, we minimize annotation errors whilst keeping signals of human label variation. Moreover, we devise a framework that goes beyond "single ground truth" evaluation and simultaneously accounts for multiple (equally reliable) test sets and the peculiarities of the task, i.e., partial span matches, overlaps, and the varying severity of labeling errors. Our experiments across four fallacy detection setups show that multi-task and multi-label transformer-based approaches are strong baselines across all settings. We release our data, code, and annotation guidelines to foster research on fallacy detection and human label variation more broadly.