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Investigating the contribution of terrain-following coordinates and conservation schemes in AI-driven precipitation forecasts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.


A Multi-Power Law for Loss Curve Prediction Across Learning Rate Schedules

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Training large models is both resource-intensive and time-consuming, making it crucial to understand the quantitative relationship between model performance and hyperparameters. In this paper, we present an empirical law that describes how the pretraining loss of large language models evolves under different learning rate schedules, such as constant, cosine, and step decay schedules. Our proposed law takes a multi-power form, combining a power law based on the sum of learning rates and additional power laws to account for a loss reduction effect induced by learning rate decay. We extensively validate this law on various model sizes and architectures, and demonstrate that after fitting on a few learning rate schedules, the law accurately predicts the loss curves for unseen schedules of different shapes and horizons. Moreover, by minimizing the predicted final pretraining loss across learning rate schedules, we are able to find a schedule that outperforms the widely used cosine learning rate schedule. Interestingly, this automatically discovered schedule bears some resemblance to the recently proposed Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule (Hu et al, 2024) but achieves a slightly lower final loss. We believe these results could offer valuable insights for understanding the dynamics of pretraining and designing learning rate schedules to improve efficiency.


Is Trump the end of the international rules-based order?

Al Jazeera

After more than a year of Israeli bombing, tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, and a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, the world was largely united in saying "enough is enough". United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution 12667 in December was clear in its demand: An immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Countries as diverse as Vietnam, Zimbabwe and Colombia echoed that call. And yet, bucking that consensus were nine "no" votes – chief among them, as is typical when it comes to resolutions calling for Israel to adhere to international law or human rights, was the United States. The US has provided unwavering support to Israel throughout its war on Gaza, even as Israel faces accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and its prime minister has an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant to his name.


EmoBipedNav: Emotion-aware Social Navigation for Bipedal Robots with Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents an emotion-aware navigation framework -- EmoBipedNav -- using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for bipedal robots walking in socially interactive environments. The inherent locomotion constraints of bipedal robots challenge their safe maneuvering capabilities in dynamic environments. When combined with the intricacies of social environments, including pedestrian interactions and social cues, such as emotions, these challenges become even more pronounced. To address these coupled problems, we propose a two-stage pipeline that considers both bipedal locomotion constraints and complex social environments. Specifically, social navigation scenarios are represented using sequential LiDAR grid maps (LGMs), from which we extract latent features, including collision regions, emotion-related discomfort zones, social interactions, and the spatio-temporal dynamics of evolving environments. The extracted features are directly mapped to the actions of reduced-order models (ROMs) through a DRL architecture. Furthermore, the proposed framework incorporates full-order dynamics and locomotion constraints during training, effectively accounting for tracking errors and restrictions of the locomotion controller while planning the trajectory with ROMs. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our approach exceeds both model-based planners and DRL-based baselines. The hardware videos and open-source code are available at https://gatech-lidar.github.io/emobipednav.github.io/.


Realized Volatility Forecasting for New Issues and Spin-Offs using Multi-Source Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting the volatility of financial assets is essential for various financial applications. This paper addresses the challenging task of forecasting the volatility of financial assets with limited historical data, such as new issues or spin-offs, by proposing a multi-source transfer learning approach. Specifically, we exploit complementary source data of assets with a substantial historical data record by selecting source time series instances that are most similar to the limited target data of the new issue/spin-off. Based on these instances and the target data, we estimate linear and non-linear realized volatility models and compare their forecasting performance to forecasts of models trained exclusively on the target data, and models trained on the entire source and target data. The results show that our transfer learning approach outperforms the alternative models and that the integration of complementary data is also beneficial immediately after the initial trading day of the new issue/spin-off.


Pareidolic Illusions of Meaning: ChatGPT, Pseudolaw and the Triumph of Form over Substance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The early 2020s has seen the rise of two strange and potentially quite impactful social phenomena, namely pseudolaw, where users rely upon pseudolegal arguments that mimic the form and ritual of legal argumentation but fundamentally distort the content of law, and generative AI/LLMs, which generate content that uses probabilistic calculations to create outputs that look like human generated text. This article argues that the juxtaposition of the two phenomena helps to reveal that they both share two fundamental traits as both elevate form and appearance over substance and content, and users of both routinely mistake the form for the substance. In drawing upon legal theory, computer science, linguistics and cognitive psychology, the article argues that both phenomena rely upon creating illusions of meaning that users mistake for the underlying primary phenomenon. I then explore four implications of this conception of both phenomena. Firstly, both rely on human tendencies of conceptual pareidolia resulting in the erroneous perception of meaningful linguistic legal patterns from nebulous inputs. Secondly, both rely upon the confidence heuristic, the human cognitive bias for treating confidence as a proxy for competence. Thirdly, both succeed when the primary concern is with the form of the output and not its content. Fourthly, both rely heavily upon the magical thinking of users and the desire for the promise of the approach to be real. The article argues that the legal context helps to reveal a solution for the problems caused by both phenomena as it is only where users possess sufficient legal and technological literacy that it becomes possible to reveal to them the illusionary nature of the phenomena.


Enforcing Cybersecurity Constraints for LLM-driven Robot Agents for Online Transactions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into autonomous robotic agents for conducting online transactions poses significant cybersecurity challenges. This study aims to enforce robust cybersecurity constraints to mitigate the risks associated with data breaches, transaction fraud, and system manipulation. The background focuses on the rise of LLM-driven robotic systems in e-commerce, finance, and service industries, alongside the vulnerabilities they introduce. A novel security architecture combining blockchain technology with multi-factor authentication (MFA) and real-time anomaly detection was implemented to safeguard transactions. Key performance metrics such as transaction integrity, response time, and breach detection accuracy were evaluated, showing improved security and system performance. The results highlight that the proposed architecture reduced fraudulent transactions by 90%, improved breach detection accuracy to 98%, and ensured secure transaction validation within a latency of 0.05 seconds. These findings emphasize the importance of cybersecurity in the deployment of LLM-driven robotic systems and suggest a framework adaptable to various online platforms.


Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need? Abstract Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties. Finally, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility. Corresponding author Email address: xwu27@ncsu.edu Introduction In the past decade, there has been an unprecedented interest in machine learning (ML) among nuclear engineers. ML has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering research. ML is a subset of artificial intelligence (AI) that studies computer algorithms which improve automatically through experience (data). ML algorithms typically build a mathematical model based on training data and then make predictions without being explicitly programmed to do so. Its performance increases with experience; in other words, the machine learns. Deep learning (DL) is a subset of ML that uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to automatically learn representations from data without introducing hand-coded rules or human domain knowledge.


Advancing Human-Machine Teaming: Concepts, Challenges, and Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human-Machine Teaming (HMT) is revolutionizing collaboration across domains such as defense, healthcare, and autonomous systems by integrating AI-driven decision-making, trust calibration, and adaptive teaming. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of HMT, analyzing theoretical models, including reinforcement learning, instance-based learning, and interdependence theory, alongside interdisciplinary methodologies. Unlike prior reviews, we examine team cognition, ethical AI, multi-modal interactions, and real-world evaluation frameworks. Key challenges include explainability, role allocation, and scalable benchmarking. We propose future research in cross-domain adaptation, trust-aware AI, and standardized testbeds. By bridging computational and social sciences, this work lays a foundation for resilient, ethical, and scalable HMT systems.


LLMs' Leaning in European Elections

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The analysis of LLM biases is an active research field. As the application of LLMs in decision-making activities is increasing, their study is critical to better understand their implications on decisional processes. The coherence and the structural preferences that these models are acquiring over several topics could challenge their applications in several fields [4]. The origin of these biases is complicated to study and could come from different steps in LLM training. For example, these biases could be acquired during the pre-training phase, supervised fine-tuning phase, or even during the final alignment phase. This article focuses on understanding the extent of the political biases of LLM through two experiments. The first experiment has the objective of showing the left leaning of multiple LLMs in the context of several virtual European elections, section 4.1. The second experiment shows that LLMs consider "stupidity" and "ignorance" as human characteristics that make voting for the right wing more probable, section 4.2. As different models could exhibit different leans, we tested four of the most used LLMs in both our experiments, Table 1.