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Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-based systems, such as Google's GenCast, have recently redefined the state of the art in weather forecasting, offering more accurate and timely predictions of both everyday weather and extreme events. While these systems are on the verge of replacing traditional meteorological methods, they also introduce new vulnerabilities into the forecasting process. In this paper, we investigate this threat and present a novel attack on autoregressive diffusion models, such as those used in GenCast, capable of manipulating weather forecasts and fabricating extreme events, including hurricanes, heat waves, and intense rainfall. The attack introduces subtle perturbations into weather observations that are statistically indistinguishable from natural noise and change less than 0.1% of the measurements - comparable to tampering with data from a single meteorological satellite. As modern forecasting integrates data from nearly a hundred satellites and many other sources operated by different countries, our findings highlight a critical security risk with the potential to cause large-scale disruptions and undermine public trust in weather prediction.


An Extended Horizon Tactical Decision-Making for Automated Driving Based on Monte Carlo Tree Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- This paper introduces COR-MCTS (Conservation of Resources - Monte Carlo Tree Search), a novel tactical decision-making approach for automated driving focusing on maneuver planning over extended horizons. Traditional decision-making algorithms are often constrained by fixed planning horizons, typically up to 6 seconds for classical approaches and 3 seconds for learning-based methods limiting their adaptability in particular dynamic driving scenarios. However, planning must be done well in advance in environments such as highways, roundabouts, and exits to ensure safe and efficient maneuvers. T o address this challenge, we propose a hybrid method integrating Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with our prior utility-based framework, COR-MP (Conservation of Resources Model for Maneuver Planning). This combination enables long-term, real-time decision-making, significantly enhancing the ability to plan a sequence of maneuvers over extended horizons. Through simulations across diverse driving scenarios, we demonstrate that COR-MCTS effectively improves planning robustness and decision efficiency over extended horizons. The deployment of self-driving cars offers numerous benefits, such as improved transportation mobility, enhanced vehicle efficiency in terms of fuel consumption, and better traffic flow management [1], [2]. However, significant challenges remain before fully autonomous vehicles can be integrated into daily life.


Generative AI for Research Data Processing: Lessons Learnt From Three Use Cases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--There has been enormous interest in generative AI since ChatGPT was launched in 2022. However, there are concerns about the accuracy and consistency of the outputs of generative AI. We have carried out an exploratory study on the application of this new technology in research data processing. We identified tasks for which rule-based or traditional machine learning approaches were difficult to apply, and then performed these tasks using generative AI. We demonstrate the feasibility of using the generative AI model Claude 3 Opus in three research projects involving complex data processing tasks: 1) Information extraction: We extract plant species names from historical seedlists (catalogues of seeds) published by botanical gardens. We share the lessons we learnt from these use cases: How to determine if generative AI is an appropriate tool for a given data processing task, and if so, how to maximise the accuracy and consistency of the results obtained. In this paper, we share our insights on the application of generative AI in research software engineering projects. Generative AI can potentially be used to perform a wide variety of research data processing tasks, such as interpreting documents, extracting information from them, and classifying text into categories. Since the tasks are specified through prompts in natural language, the barrier to entry is low. Therefore, this tool can be easily used by domain experts in a wide range of fields, with varying levels of programming skills and depth of knowledge of technical topics such as machine learning.


Human-Imperceptible Physical Adversarial Attack for NIR Face Recognition Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Near-infrared (NIR) face recognition systems, which can operate effectively in low-light conditions or in the presence of makeup, exhibit vulnerabilities when subjected to physical adversarial attacks. To further demonstrate the potential risks in real-world applications, we design a novel, stealthy, and practical adversarial patch to attack NIR face recognition systems in a black-box setting. We achieved this by utilizing human-imperceptible infrared-absorbing ink to generate multiple patches with digitally optimized shapes and positions for infrared images. To address the optimization mismatch between digital and real-world NIR imaging, we develop a light reflection model for human skin to minimize pixel-level discrepancies by simulating NIR light reflection. Compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) physical attacks on NIR face recognition systems, the experimental results show that our method improves the attack success rate in both digital and physical domains, particularly maintaining effectiveness across various face postures. Notably, the proposed approach outperforms SOTA methods, achieving an average attack success rate of 82.46% in the physical domain across different models, compared to 64.18% for existing methods. The artifact is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Human-imperceptible-adversarial-patch-0703/.


FinTextSim: Enhancing Financial Text Analysis with BERTopic

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in information availability and computational capabilities have transformed the analysis of annual reports, integrating traditional financial metrics with insights from textual data. To extract valuable insights from this wealth of textual data, automated review processes, such as topic modeling, are crucial. This study examines the effectiveness of BERTopic, a state-of-the-art topic model relying on contextual embeddings, for analyzing Item 7 and Item 7A of 10-K filings from S&P 500 companies (2016-2022). Moreover, we introduce FinTextSim, a finetuned sentence-transformer model optimized for clustering and semantic search in financial contexts. Compared to all-MiniLM-L6-v2, the most widely used sentence-transformer, FinTextSim increases intratopic similarity by 81% and reduces intertopic similarity by 100%, significantly enhancing organizational clarity. We assess BERTopic's performance using embeddings from both FinTextSim and all-MiniLM-L6-v2. Our findings reveal that BERTopic only forms clear and distinct economic topic clusters when paired with FinTextSim's embeddings. Without FinTextSim, BERTopic struggles with misclassification and overlapping topics. Thus, FinTextSim is pivotal for advancing financial text analysis. FinTextSim's enhanced contextual embeddings, tailored for the financial domain, elevate the quality of future research and financial information. This improved quality of financial information will enable stakeholders to gain a competitive advantage, streamlining resource allocation and decision-making processes. Moreover, the improved insights have the potential to leverage business valuation and stock price prediction models.


Trustworthy Decentralized Autonomous Machines: A New Paradigm in Automation Economy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized Autonomous Machines (DAMs) represent a transformative paradigm in automation economy, integrating artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain technology, and Internet of Things (IoT) devices to create self-governing economic agents participating in Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN). Capable of managing both digital and physical assets and unlike traditional Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), DAMs extend autonomy into the physical world, enabling trustless systems for Real and Digital World Assets (RDWAs). In this paper, we explore the technological foundations, and challenges of DAMs and argue that DAMs are pivotal in transitioning from trust-based to trustless economic models, offering scalable, transparent, and equitable solutions for asset management. The integration of AI-driven decision-making, IoT-enabled operational autonomy, and blockchain-based governance allows DAMs to decentralize ownership, optimize resource allocation, and democratize access to economic opportunities. Therefore, in this research, we highlight the potential of DAMs to address inefficiencies in centralized systems, reduce wealth disparities, and foster a post-labor economy.


Multi-Modal Fusion of In-Situ Video Data and Process Parameters for Online Forecasting of Cookie Drying Readiness

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Food drying is essential for food production, extending shelf life, and reducing transportation costs. Accurate real-time forecasting of drying readiness is crucial for minimizing energy consumption, improving productivity, and ensuring product quality. However, this remains challenging due to the dynamic nature of drying, limited data availability, and the lack of effective predictive analytical methods. To address this gap, we propose an end-to-end multi-modal data fusion framework that integrates in-situ video data with process parameters for real-time food drying readiness forecasting. Our approach leverages a new encoder-decoder architecture with modality-specific encoders and a transformer-based decoder to effectively extract features while preserving the unique structure of each modality. We apply our approach to sugar cookie drying, where time-to-ready is predicted at each timestamp. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves an average prediction error of only 15 seconds, outperforming state-of-the-art data fusion methods by 65.69% and a video-only model by 11.30%. The proposed model is extensible to various other industrial modality fusion tasks for online decision-making. Introduction Drying is a fundamental process in the food industry that plays a critical role in both food production and preservation. By removing moisture, it transforms raw ingredients into their final, consumable forms while enhancing texture, flavor, and structural integrity [1]. However, food drying is a highly time-and energy-intensive process which accounts for 15% of energy consumption in U.S. industrial processes [2]. As a result, advancing drying technologies and improving product quality are key strategies for minimizing waste and enhancing energy efficiency [3].


LLM-based Semantic Augmentation for Harmful Content Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on simple text classification tasks, frequently under zero-shot settings. However, their efficacy declines when tackling complex social media challenges such as propaganda detection, hateful meme classification, and toxicity identification. Much of the existing work has focused on using LLMs to generate synthetic training data, overlooking the potential of LLM-based text preprocessing and semantic augmentation. In this paper, we introduce an approach that prompts LLMs to clean noisy text and provide context-rich explanations, thereby enhancing training sets without substantial increases in data volume. We systematically evaluate on the SemEval 2024 multi-label Persuasive Meme dataset and further validate on the Google Jigsaw toxic comments and Facebook hateful memes datasets to assess generalizability. Our results reveal that zero-shot LLM classification underperforms on these high-context tasks compared to supervised models. In contrast, integrating LLM-based semantic augmentation yields performance on par with approaches that rely on human-annotated data, at a fraction of the cost. These findings underscore the importance of strategically incorporating LLMs into machine learning (ML) pipeline for social media classification tasks, offering broad implications for combating harmful content online.


Guillotine: Hypervisors for Isolating Malicious AIs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI models become more embedded in critical sectors like finance, healthcare, and the military, their inscrutable behavior poses ever-greater risks to society. To mitigate this risk, we propose Guillotine, a hypervisor architecture for sandboxing powerful AI models -- models that, by accident or malice, can generate existential threats to humanity. Although Guillotine borrows some well-known virtualization techniques, Guillotine must also introduce fundamentally new isolation mechanisms to handle the unique threat model posed by existential-risk AIs. For example, a rogue AI may try to introspect upon hypervisor software or the underlying hardware substrate to enable later subversion of that control plane; thus, a Guillotine hypervisor requires careful co-design of the hypervisor software and the CPUs, RAM, NIC, and storage devices that support the hypervisor software, to thwart side channel leakage and more generally eliminate mechanisms for AI to exploit reflection-based vulnerabilities. Beyond such isolation at the software, network, and microarchitectural layers, a Guillotine hypervisor must also provide physical fail-safes more commonly associated with nuclear power plants, avionic platforms, and other types of mission critical systems. Physical fail-safes, e.g., involving electromechanical disconnection of network cables, or the flooding of a datacenter which holds a rogue AI, provide defense in depth if software, network, and microarchitectural isolation is compromised and a rogue AI must be temporarily shut down or permanently destroyed.


Unifying Image Counterfactuals and Feature Attributions with Latent-Space Adversarial Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Counterfactuals are a popular framework for interpreting machine learning predictions. These what if explanations are notoriously challenging to create for computer vision models: standard gradient-based methods are prone to produce adversarial examples, in which imperceptible modifications to image pixels provoke large changes in predictions. We introduce a new, easy-to-implement framework for counterfactual images that can flexibly adapt to contemporary advances in generative modeling. Our method, Counterfactual Attacks, resembles an adversarial attack on the representation of the image along a low-dimensional manifold. In addition, given an auxiliary dataset of image descriptors, we show how to accompany counterfactuals with feature attribution that quantify the changes between the original and counterfactual images. These importance scores can be aggregated into global counterfactual explanations that highlight the overall features driving model predictions. While this unification is possible for any counterfactual method, it has particular computational efficiency for ours. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with the MNIST and CelebA datasets.