In this paper, we introduce an algorithm designed to address the problem of time-optimal formation reshaping in three-dimensional environments while preventing collisions between agents. The utility of the proposed approach is particularly evident in mobile robotics, where agents benefit from being organized and navigated in formation for a variety of real-world applications requiring frequent alterations in formation shape for efficient navigation or task completion. Given the constrained operational time inherent to battery-powered mobile robots, the time needed to complete the formation reshaping process is crucial for their efficient operation, especially in case of multi-rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The proposed Collision-Aware Time-Optimal formation Reshaping Algorithm (CAT-ORA) builds upon the Hungarian algorithm for the solution of the robot-to-goal assignment implementing the inter-agent collision avoidance through direct constraints on mutually exclusive robot-goal pairs combined with a trajectory generation approach minimizing the duration of the reshaping process. Theoretical validations confirm the optimality of CAT-ORA, with its efficacy further showcased through simulations, and a real-world outdoor experiment involving 19 UAVs. Thorough numerical analysis shows the potential of CAT-ORA to decrease the time required to perform complex formation reshaping tasks by up to 49%, and 12% on average compared to commonly used methods in randomly generated scenarios.

This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders (SAE), to improve investment strategy performance. Using the Sharpe and Information Ratios, it specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling on risk-adjusted returns. The study focuses on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum as the traded assets from January 1, 2016, to April 30, 2022. Findings indicate that supervised autoencoders, with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size, significantly boost strategy effectiveness. However, excessive noise and large bottleneck sizes can impair performance.

Robotic manipulators are critical in many applications but are known to degrade over time. This degradation is influenced by the nature of the tasks performed by the robot. Tasks with higher severity, such as handling heavy payloads, can accelerate the degradation process. One way this degradation is reflected is in the position accuracy of the robot's end-effector. In this paper, we present a prognostic modeling framework that predicts a robotic manipulator's Remaining Useful Life (RUL) while accounting for the effects of task severity. Our framework represents the robot's position accuracy as a Brownian motion process with a random drift parameter that is influenced by task severity. The dynamic nature of task severity is modeled using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). To evaluate RUL, we discuss two approaches -- (1) a novel closed-form expression for Remaining Lifetime Distribution (RLD), and (2) Monte Carlo simulations, commonly used in prognostics literature. Theoretical results establish the equivalence between these RUL computation approaches. We validate our framework through experiments using two distinct physics-based simulators for planar and spatial robot fleets. Our findings show that robots in both fleets experience shorter RUL when handling a higher proportion of high-severity tasks.

Control structure design is an important but tedious step in P&ID development. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) promises to reduce P&ID development time by supporting engineers. Previous research on generative AI in chemical process design mainly represented processes by sequences. However, graphs offer a promising alternative because of their permutation invariance. We propose the Graph-to-SFILES model, a generative AI method to predict control structures from flowsheet topologies. The Graph-to-SFILES model takes the flowsheet topology as a graph input and returns a control-extended flowsheet as a sequence in the SFILES 2.0 notation. We compare four different graph encoder architectures, one of them being a graph neural network (GNN) proposed in this work. The Graph-to-SFILES model achieves a top-5 accuracy of 73.2% when trained on 10,000 flowsheet topologies. In addition, the proposed GNN performs best among the encoder architectures. Compared to a purely sequence-based approach, the Graph-to-SFILES model improves the top-5 accuracy for a relatively small training dataset of 1,000 flowsheets from 0.9% to 28.4%. However, the sequence-based approach performs better on a large-scale dataset of 100,000 flowsheets. These results highlight the potential of graph-based AI models to accelerate P&ID development in small-data regimes but their effectiveness on industry relevant case studies still needs to be investigated.

Creativity is a fundamental skill of human cognition. We use textual forma mentis networks (TFMN) to extract network (semantic/syntactic associations) and emotional features from approximately one thousand human-and GPT3.5-generated stories. Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) we test whether features relative to Mednick's associative theory of creativity can explain creativity ratings assigned by humans and GPT-3.5. Using XGBoost, we examine 3 scenarios: (i) human ratings of human stories, (ii) GPT-3.5 ratings of human stories, and (iii) GPT-3.5 ratings of GPT-generated stories. Our findings reveal that GPT-3.5 ratings differ significantly from human ratings not only in terms of correlations but also because of feature patterns identified with XAI methods. GPT-3.5 favours "its own" stories and rates human stories differently from humans. Feature importance analysis with SHAP scores shows that: (i) network features are more predictive for human creativity ratings but also for GPT-3.5 s ratings of human stories; (ii) emotional features played a greater role than semantic/syntactic network structure in GPT-3.5 rating its own stories. These quantitative results underscore key limitations in GPT-3.5 s ability to align with human assessments of creativity. We emphasise the need for caution when using GPT-3.5 to assess and generate creative content, as it does not yet capture the nuanced complexity that characterises human creativity.

The remarkable achievements of large models in the fields of natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) have sparked interest in their application to time series forecasting within industrial contexts. This paper explores the application of a pre-trained large time series model, Timer, which was initially trained on a wide range of time series data from multiple domains, in the prediction of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data collected from wind turbines. The model was fine-tuned on SCADA datasets sourced from two wind farms, which exhibited differing characteristics, and its accuracy was subsequently evaluated. Additionally, the impact of data volume was studied to evaluate the few-shot ability of the Timer. Finally, an application study on one-turbine fine-tuning for whole-plant prediction was implemented where both few-shot and cross-turbine generalization capacity is required. The results reveal that the pre-trained large model does not consistently outperform other baseline models in terms of prediction accuracy whenever the data is abundant or not, but demonstrates superior performance in the application study. This result underscores the distinctive advantages of the pre-trained large time series model in facilitating swift deployment.

Renewable energies and their operation are becoming increasingly vital for the stability of electrical power grids since conventional power plants are progressively being displaced, and their contribution to redispatch interventions is thereby diminishing. In order to consider renewable energies like Wind Power (WP) for such interventions as a substitute, day-ahead forecasts are necessary to communicate their availability for redispatch planning. In this context, automated and scalable forecasting models are required for the deployment to thousands of locally-distributed onshore WP turbines. Furthermore, the irregular interventions into the WP generation capabilities due to redispatch shutdowns pose challenges in the design and operation of WP forecasting models. Since state-of-the-art forecasting methods consider past WP generation values alongside day-ahead weather forecasts, redispatch shutdowns may impact the forecast. Therefore, the present paper highlights these challenges and analyzes state-of-the-art forecasting methods on data sets with both regular and irregular shutdowns. Specifically, we compare the forecasting accuracy of three autoregressive Deep Learning (DL) methods to methods based on WP curve modeling. Interestingly, the latter achieve lower forecasting errors, have fewer requirements for data cleaning during modeling and operation while being computationally more efficient, suggesting their advantages in practical applications.

Optimizing smart grid operations relies on critical decision-making informed by uncertainty quantification, making probabilistic forecasting a vital tool. Designing such forecasting models involves three key challenges: accurate and unbiased uncertainty quantification, workload reduction for data scientists during the design process, and limitation of the environmental impact of model training. In order to address these challenges, we introduce AutoPQ, a novel method designed to automate and optimize probabilistic forecasting for smart grid applications. AutoPQ enhances forecast uncertainty quantification by generating quantile forecasts from an existing point forecast by using a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN). AutoPQ also automates the selection of the underlying point forecasting method and the optimization of hyperparameters, ensuring that the best model and configuration is chosen for each application. For flexible adaptation to various performance needs and available computing power, AutoPQ comes with a default and an advanced configuration, making it suitable for a wide range of smart grid applications. Additionally, AutoPQ provides transparency regarding the electricity consumption required for performance improvements. We show that AutoPQ outperforms state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting methods while effectively limiting computational effort and hence environmental impact. Additionally and in the context of sustainability, we quantify the electricity consumption required for performance improvements.

Time-series forecasting has seen significant advancements with the introduction of token prediction mechanisms such as multi-head attention. However, these methods often struggle to achieve the same performance as in language modeling, primarily due to the quadratic computational cost and the complexity of capturing long-range dependencies in time-series data. State-space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have shown promise in addressing these challenges by offering efficient solutions with linear RNNs capable of modeling long sequences with larger context windows. However, there remains room for improvement in accuracy and scalability. We propose the use of Test-Time Training (TTT) modules in a parallel architecture to enhance performance in long-term time series forecasting. Through extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that TTT modules consistently outperform state-of-the-art models, including the Mamba-based TimeMachine, particularly in scenarios involving extended sequence and prediction lengths. Our results show significant improvements in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), especially on larger datasets such as Electricity, Traffic, and Weather, underscoring the effectiveness of TTT in capturing long-range dependencies. Additionally, we explore various convolutional architectures within the TTT framework, showing that even simple configurations like 1D convolution with small filters can achieve competitive results. This work sets a new benchmark for time-series forecasting and lays the groundwork for future research in scalable, high-performance forecasting models.

In this work, we present a new unsupervised anomaly (outlier) detection (AD) method using the sliced-Wasserstein metric. This filtering technique is conceptually interesting for MLOps pipelines deploying machine learning models in critical sectors, e.g., energy, as it offers a conservative data selection. Additionally, we open the first dataset showcasing localized critical peak rebate demand response in a northern climate. We demonstrate the capabilities of our method on synthetic datasets as well as standard AD datasets and use it in the making of a first benchmark for our open-source localized critical peak rebate dataset.