Energy
Nonmyopic Global Optimisation via Approximate Dynamic Programming
Airaldi, Filippo, De Schutter, Bart, Dabiri, Azita
Unconstrained global optimisation aims to optimise expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions without gradient information. Bayesian optimisation, one of the most well-known techniques, typically employs Gaussian processes as surrogate models, leveraging their probabilistic nature to balance exploration and exploitation. However, Gaussian processes become computationally prohibitive in high-dimensional spaces. Recent alternatives, based on inverse distance weighting (IDW) and radial basis functions (RBFs), offer competitive, computationally lighter solutions. Despite their efficiency, both traditional global and Bayesian optimisation strategies suffer from the myopic nature of their acquisition functions, which focus solely on immediate improvement neglecting future implications of the sequential decision making process. Nonmyopic acquisition functions devised for the Bayesian setting have shown promise in improving long-term performance. Yet, their use in deterministic strategies with IDW and RBF remains unexplored. In this work, we introduce novel nonmyopic acquisition strategies tailored to IDW- and RBF-based global optimisation. Specifically, we develop dynamic programming-based paradigms, including rollout and multi-step scenario-based optimisation schemes, to enable lookahead acquisition. These methods optimise a sequence of query points over a horizon (instead of only at the next step) by predicting the evolution of the surrogate model, inherently managing the exploration-exploitation trade-off in a systematic way via optimisation techniques. The proposed approach represents a significant advance in extending nonmyopic acquisition principles, previously confined to Bayesian optimisation, to the deterministic framework. Empirical results on synthetic and hyperparameter tuning benchmark problems demonstrate that these nonmyopic methods outperform conventional myopic approaches.
KEDformer:Knowledge Extraction Seasonal Trend Decomposition for Long-term Sequence Prediction
Qin, Zhenkai, Wei, Baozhong, Gao, Caifeng, Ni, Jianyuan
Time series forecasting is a critical task in domains such as energy, finance, and meteorology, where accurate long-term predictions are essential. While Transformer-based models have shown promise in capturing temporal dependencies, their application to extended sequences is limited by computational inefficiencies and limited generalization. In this study, we propose KEDformer, a knowledge extraction-driven framework that integrates seasonal-trend decomposition to address these challenges. KEDformer leverages knowledge extraction methods that focus on the most informative weights within the self-attention mechanism to reduce computational overhead. Additionally, the proposed KEDformer framework decouples time series into seasonal and trend components. This decomposition enhances the model's ability to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term patterns. Extensive experiments on five public datasets from energy, transportation, and weather domains demonstrate the effectiveness and competitiveness of KEDformer, providing an efficient solution for long-term time series forecasting.
Uncertainty Quantification for Transformer Models for Dark-Pattern Detection
Muรฑoz, Javier, Huertas-Garcรญa, รlvaro, Martรญ-Gonzรกlez, Carlos, Ambite, Enrique De Miguel
The opaque nature of transformer-based models, particularly in applications susceptible to unethical practices such as dark-patterns in user interfaces, requires models that integrate uncertainty quantification to enhance trust in predictions. This study focuses on dark-pattern detection, deceptive design choices that manipulate user decisions, undermining autonomy and consent. We propose a differential fine-tuning approach implemented at the final classification head via uncertainty quantification with transformer-based pre-trained models. Employing a dense neural network (DNN) head architecture as a baseline, we examine two methods capable of quantifying uncertainty: Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Processes (SNGPs) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). These methods are evaluated on a set of open-source foundational models across multiple dimensions: model performance, variance in certainty of predictions and environmental impact during training and inference phases. Results demonstrate that integrating uncertainty quantification maintains performance while providing insights into challenging instances within the models. Moreover, the study reveals that the environmental impact does not uniformly increase with the incorporation of uncertainty quantification techniques. The study's findings demonstrate that uncertainty quantification enhances transparency and provides measurable confidence in predictions, improving the explainability and clarity of black-box models. This facilitates informed decision-making and mitigates the influence of dark-patterns on user interfaces. These results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty quantification techniques in developing machine learning models, particularly in domains where interpretability and trustworthiness are critical.
Spatiotemporal Density Correction of Multivariate Global Climate Model Projections using Deep Learning
Majumder, Reetam, Fang, Shiqi, Sankarasubramanian, A., Hector, Emily C., Reich, Brian J.
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are numerical models that simulate complex physical processes within the Earth's climate system and are essential for understanding and predicting climate change. However, GCMs suffer from systemic biases due to simplifications made to the underlying physical processes. GCM output therefore needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for future climate projections. Most common bias correction methods, however, cannot preserve spatial, temporal, or inter-variable dependencies. We propose a new semi-parametric conditional density estimation (SPCDE) for density correction of the joint distribution of daily precipitation and maximum temperature data obtained from gridded GCM spatial fields. The Vecchia approximation is employed to preserve dependencies in the observed field during the density correction process, which is carried out using semi-parametric quantile regression. The ability to calibrate joint distributions of GCM projections has potential advantages not only in estimating extremes, but also in better estimating compound hazards, like heat waves and drought, under potential climate change. Illustration on historical data from 1951-2014 over two 5x5 spatial grids in the US indicate that SPCDE can preserve key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and maximum temperature, and predictions obtained using SPCDE are better calibrated compared to predictions using asynchronous quantile mapping and canonical correlation analysis, two commonly used bias correction approaches.
Power Plant Detection for Energy Estimation using GIS with Remote Sensing, CNN & Vision Transformers
Austin-Gabriel, Blessing, Monsalve, Cristian Noriega, Varde, Aparna S.
In this research, we propose a hybrid model for power plant detection to assist energy estimation applications, by pipelining GIS (Geographical Information Systems) having Remote Sensing capabilities with CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks) and ViT (Vision Transformers). Our proposed approach enables real-time analysis with multiple data types on a common map via the GIS, entails feature-extraction abilities due to the CNN, and captures long-range dependencies through the ViT. This hybrid approach is found to enhance classification, thus helping in the monitoring and operational management of power plants; hence assisting energy estimation and sustainable energy planning in the future. It exemplifies adequate deployment of machine learning methods in conjunction with domain-specific approaches to enhance performance.
A Survey of Sustainability in Large Language Models: Applications, Economics, and Challenges
Singh, Aditi, Patel, Nirmal Prakashbhai, Ehtesham, Abul, Kumar, Saket, Khoei, Tala Talaei
Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed numerous domains by providing advanced capabilities in natural language understanding, generation, and reasoning. Despite their groundbreaking applications across industries such as research, healthcare, and creative media, their rapid adoption raises critical concerns regarding sustainability. This survey paper comprehensively examines the environmental, economic, and computational challenges associated with LLMs, focusing on energy consumption, carbon emissions, and resource utilization in data centers. By synthesizing insights from existing literature, this work explores strategies such as resource-efficient training, sustainable deployment practices, and lifecycle assessments to mitigate the environmental impacts of LLMs. Key areas of emphasis include energy optimization, renewable energy integration, and balancing performance with sustainability. The findings aim to guide researchers, practitioners, and policymakers in developing actionable strategies for sustainable AI systems, fostering a responsible and environmentally conscious future for artificial intelligence.
ByteScience: Bridging Unstructured Scientific Literature and Structured Data with Auto Fine-tuned Large Language Model in Token Granularity
Xie, Tong, Zhang, Hanzhi, Wang, Shaozhou, Wan, Yuwei, Razzak, Imran, Kit, Chunyu, Zhang, Wenjie, Hoex, Bram
Natural Language Processing (NLP) is widely used to supply summarization ability from long context to structured information. However, extracting structured knowledge from scientific text by NLP models remains a challenge because of its domain-specific nature to complex data preprocessing and the granularity of multi-layered device-level information. To address this, we introduce ByteScience, a non-profit cloud-based auto fine-tuned Large Language Model (LLM) platform, which is designed to extract structured scientific data and synthesize new scientific knowledge from vast scientific corpora. The platform capitalizes on DARWIN, an open-source, fine-tuned LLM dedicated to natural science. The platform was built on Amazon Web Services (AWS) and provides an automated, user-friendly workflow for custom model development and data extraction. The platform achieves remarkable accuracy with only a small amount of well-annotated articles. This innovative tool streamlines the transition from the science literature to structured knowledge and data and benefits the advancements in natural informatics.
Physics-informed reduced order model with conditional neural fields
Kim, Minji, Wen, Tianshu, Lee, Kookjin, Choi, Youngsoo
This study presents the conditional neural fields for reduced-order modeling (CNF-ROM) framework to approximate solutions of parametrized partial differential equations (PDEs). The approach combines a parametric neural ODE (PNODE) for modeling latent dynamics over time with a decoder that reconstructs PDE solutions from the corresponding latent states. We introduce a physics-informed learning objective for CNF-ROM, which includes two key components. First, the framework uses coordinate-based neural networks to calculate and minimize PDE residuals by computing spatial derivatives via automatic differentiation and applying the chain rule for time derivatives. Second, exact initial and boundary conditions (IC/BC) are imposed using approximate distance functions (ADFs) [Sukumar and Srivastava, CMAME, 2022]. However, ADFs introduce a trade-off as their second- or higher-order derivatives become unstable at the joining points of boundaries. To address this, we introduce an auxiliary network inspired by [Gladstone et al., NeurIPS ML4PS workshop, 2022]. Our method is validated through parameter extrapolation and interpolation, temporal extrapolation, and comparisons with analytical solutions.
Predicting Organic-Inorganic Halide Perovskite Photovoltaic Performance from Optical Properties of Constituent Films through Machine Learning
Zhang, Ruiqi, Motes, Brandon, Tan, Shaun, Lu, Yongli, Shih, Meng-Chen, Hao, Yilun, Yang, Karen, Srinivasan, Shreyas, Bawendi, Moungi G., Bulovic, Vladimir
We demonstrate a machine learning (ML) approach that accurately predicts the current-voltage behavior of 3D/2D-structured (FAMA)Pb(IBr)3/OABr hybrid organic-inorganic halide perovskite (HOIP) solar cells under AM1.5 illumination. Our neural network algorithm is trained on measured responses from several hundred HOIP solar cells, using three simple optical measurements of constituent HOIP films as input: optical transmission spectrum, spectrally-resolved photoluminescence, and time-resolved photoluminescence, from which we predict the open-circuit voltage (Voc), short-circuit current (Jsc), and fill factors (FF) values of solar cells that contain the HOIP active layers. Determined average prediction accuracies for 95 % of the predicted Voc, Jsc, and FF values are 91%, 94% and 89%, respectively, with R2 coefficients of determination of 0.47, 0.77, and 0.58, respectively. Quantifying the connection between ML predictions and physical parameters extracted from the measured HOIP films optical properties, allows us to identify the most significant parameters influencing the prediction results. With separate ML-classifying algorithms, we identify degraded solar cells using the same optical input data, achieving over 90% classification accuracy through support vector machine, cross entropy loss, and artificial neural network algorithms. To our knowledge, the demonstrated regression and classification work is the first to use ML to predict device photovoltaic properties solely from the optical properties of constituent materials.
CIKAN: Constraint Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for Autonomous Spacecraft Rendezvous using Time Shift Governor
Kim, Taehyeun, Girard, Anouck, Kolmanovsky, Ilya
The paper considers a Constrained-Informed Neural Network (CINN) approximation for the Time Shift Governor (TSG), which is an add-on scheme to the nominal closed-loop system used to enforce constraints by time-shifting the reference trajectory in spacecraft rendezvous applications. We incorporate Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), an emerging architecture in the AI community, as a fundamental component of CINN and propose a Constrained-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (CIKAN)-based approximation for TSG. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the CIKAN-based TSG through simulations of constrained spacecraft rendezvous missions on highly elliptic orbits and present comparisons between CIKANs, MLP-based CINNs, and the conventional TSG.