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Do we actually understand the impact of renewables on electricity prices? A causal inference approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical to design policies and market interventions that ensure affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy systems. However, identifying causal effects from observational data is a major challenge, requiring innovative causal inference approaches that go beyond conventional regression analysis only. We build upon the state of the art by developing and applying a local partially linear double machine learning approach. Its application yields the first robust causal evidence on the distinct and non-linear effects of wind and solar power generation on UK wholesale electricity prices, revealing key insights that have eluded previous analyses. We find that, over 2018-2024, wind power generation has a U-shaped effect on prices: at low penetration levels, a 1 GWh increase in energy generation reduces prices by up to 7 GBP/MWh, but this effect gets close to none at mid-penetration levels (20-30%) before intensifying again. Solar power places substantial downward pressure on prices at very low penetration levels (up to 9 GBP/MWh per 1 GWh increase in energy generation), though its impact weakens quite rapidly. We also uncover a critical trend where the price-reducing effects of both wind and solar power have become more pronounced over time (from 2018 to 2024), highlighting their growing influence on electricity markets amid rising penetration. Our study provides both novel analysis approaches and actionable insights to guide policymakers in appraising the way renewables impact electricity markets.


Task Delay and Energy Consumption Minimization for Low-altitude MEC via Evolutionary Multi-objective Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The low-altitude economy (LAE), driven by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other aircraft, has revolutionized fields such as transportation, agriculture, and environmental monitoring. In the upcoming six-generation (6G) era, UAV-assisted mobile edge computing (MEC) is particularly crucial in challenging environments such as mountainous or disaster-stricken areas. The computation task offloading problem is one of the key issues in UAV-assisted MEC, primarily addressing the trade-off between minimizing the task delay and the energy consumption of the UAV. In this paper, we consider a UAV-assisted MEC system where the UAV carries the edge servers to facilitate task offloading for ground devices (GDs), and formulate a calculation delay and energy consumption multi-objective optimization problem (CDECMOP) to simultaneously improve the performance and reduce the cost of the system. Then, by modeling the formulated problem as a multi-objective Markov decision process (MOMDP), we propose a multi-objective deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithm within an evolutionary framework to dynamically adjust the weights and obtain non-dominated policies. Moreover, to ensure stable convergence and improve performance, we incorporate a target distribution learning (TDL) algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can better balance multiple optimization objectives and obtain superior non-dominated solutions compared to other methods.


Environmental large language model Evaluation (ELLE) dataset: A Benchmark for Evaluating Generative AI applications in Eco-environment Domain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI holds significant potential for ecological and environmental applications such as monitoring, data analysis, education, and policy support. However, its effectiveness is limited by the lack of a unified evaluation framework. To address this, we present the Environmental Large Language model Evaluation (ELLE) question answer (QA) dataset, the first benchmark designed to assess large language models and their applications in ecological and environmental sciences. The ELLE dataset includes 1,130 question answer pairs across 16 environmental topics, categorized by domain, difficulty, and type. This comprehensive dataset standardizes performance assessments in these fields, enabling consistent and objective comparisons of generative AI performance. By providing a dedicated evaluation tool, ELLE dataset promotes the development and application of generative AI technologies for sustainable environmental outcomes. The dataset and code are available at https://elle.ceeai.net/ and https://github.com/CEEAI/elle.


Efficient Transition State Searches by Freezing String Method with Graph Neural Network Potentials

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Transition states are a critical bottleneck in chemical transformations. Significant efforts have been made to develop algorithms that efficiently locate transition states on potential energy surfaces. However, the computational cost of ab-initio potential energy surface evaluation limits the size of chemical systems that can routinely studied. In this work, we develop and fine-tune a graph neural network potential energy function suitable for describing organic chemical reactions and use it to rapidly identify transition state guess structures. We successfully refine guess structures and locate a transition state in each test system considered and reduce the average number of ab-initio calculations by 47% though use of the graph neural network potential energy function. Our results show that modern machine learning models have reached levels of reliability whereby they can be used to accelerate routine computational chemistry tasks.


Explaining Deep Learning-based Anomaly Detection in Energy Consumption Data by Focusing on Contextually Relevant Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Detecting anomalies in energy consumption data is crucial for identifying energy waste, equipment malfunction, and overall, for ensuring efficient energy management. Machine learning, and specifically deep learning approaches, have been greatly successful in anomaly detection; however, they are black-box approaches that do not provide transparency or explanations. SHAP and its variants have been proposed to explain these models, but they suffer from high computational complexity (SHAP) or instability and inconsistency (e.g., Kernel SHAP). To address these challenges, this paper proposes an explainability approach for anomalies in energy consumption data that focuses on context-relevant information. The proposed approach leverages existing explainability techniques, focusing on SHAP variants, together with global feature importance and weighted cosine similarity to select background dataset based on the context of each anomaly point. By focusing on the context and most relevant features, this approach mitigates the instability of explainability algorithms. Experimental results across 10 different machine learning models, five datasets, and five XAI techniques, demonstrate that our method reduces the variability of explanations providing consistent explanations. Statistical analyses confirm the robustness of our approach, showing an average reduction in variability of approximately 38% across multiple datasets.


The New Anticipatory Governance Culture for Innovation: Regulatory Foresight, Regulatory Experimentation and Regulatory Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapid pace of technological innovation, traditional methods of policy formation and legislating are becoming conspicuously anachronistic. The need for regulatory choices to be made to counter the deadening effect of regulatory lag is more important to developing markets and fostering growth than achieving one off regulatory perfection. This article advances scholarship on innovation policy and the regulation of technological innovation in the European Union. It does so by considering what building an agile yet robust anticipatory governance regulatory culture involves. It systematically excavates a variety of tools and elements that are being put into use in inventive ways and argues that these need to be more cohesively and systemically integrated into the regulatory toolbox. Approaches covered include strategic foresight, the critical embrace of iterative policy development and regulatory learning in the face of uncertainty and the embrace of bottom up approaches to cocreation of policy such as Policy Labs and the testing and regulatory learning through pilot regulation and experimentation. The growing use of regulatory sandboxes as an EU policy tool to boost innovation and navigate regulatory complexity as seen in the EU AI Act is also probed


Discovery of sustainable energy materials via the machine-learned material space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Does a machine learning model actually gain an understanding of the material space? We answer this question in the affirmative on the example of the OptiMate model, a graph attention network trained to predict the optical properties of semiconductors and insulators. By applying the UMAP dimensionality reduction technique to its latent embeddings, we demonstrate that the model captures a nuanced and interpretable representation of the materials space, reflecting chemical and physical principles, without any user-induced bias. This enables clustering of almost 10,000 materials based on optical properties and chemical similarities. Beyond this understanding, we demonstrate how the learned material space can be used to identify more sustainable alternatives to critical materials in energy-related technologies, such as photovoltaics. These findings demonstrate the dual utility of machine learning models in materials science: Accurately predicting material properties while providing insights into the underlying materials space. The approach demonstrates the broader potential of leveraging learned materials spaces for the discovery and design of materials for diverse applications, and is easily applicable to any state-of-the-art machine learning model.


Decentralized Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large-scale AI model training divides work across thousands of GPUs, then synchronizes gradients across them at each step. This incurs a significant network burden that only centralized, monolithic clusters can support, driving up infrastructure costs and straining power systems. We propose Decentralized Diffusion Models, a scalable framework for distributing diffusion model training across independent clusters or datacenters by eliminating the dependence on a centralized, high-bandwidth networking fabric. Our method trains a set of expert diffusion models over partitions of the dataset, each in full isolation from one another. At inference time, the experts ensemble through a lightweight router. We show that the ensemble collectively optimizes the same objective as a single model trained over the whole dataset. This means we can divide the training burden among a number of "compute islands," lowering infrastructure costs and improving resilience to localized GPU failures. Decentralized diffusion models empower researchers to take advantage of smaller, more cost-effective and more readily available compute like on-demand GPU nodes rather than central integrated systems. We conduct extensive experiments on ImageNet and LAION Aesthetics, showing that decentralized diffusion models FLOP-for-FLOP outperform standard diffusion models. We finally scale our approach to 24 billion parameters, demonstrating that high-quality diffusion models can now be trained with just eight individual GPU nodes in less than a week.


Dolphin: Closed-loop Open-ended Auto-research through Thinking, Practice, and Feedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The scientific research paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation owing to the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent works demonstrate that various AI-assisted research methods can largely improve research efficiency by improving data analysis, accelerating computation, and fostering novel idea generation. To further move towards the ultimate goal (i.e., automatic scientific research), in this paper, we propose Dolphin, the first closed-loop open-ended auto-research framework to further build the entire process of human scientific research. Dolphin can generate research ideas, perform experiments, and get feedback from experimental results to generate higher-quality ideas. More specifically, Dolphin first generates novel ideas based on relevant papers which are ranked by the topic and task attributes. Then, the codes are automatically generated and debugged with the exception-traceback-guided local code structure. Finally, Dolphin automatically analyzes the results of each idea and feeds the results back to the next round of idea generation. Experiments are conducted on the benchmark datasets of different topics and results show that Dolphin can generate novel ideas continuously and complete the experiment in a loop. We highlight that Dolphin can automatically propose methods that are comparable to the state-of-the-art in some tasks such as 2D image classification and 3D point classification.


Bridging Today and the Future of Humanity: AI Safety in 2024 and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advancements in generative AI inevitably raise concerns about their risks and safety implications, which, in return, catalyzes significant progress in AI safety. However, as this field continues to evolve, a critical question arises: are our current efforts on AI safety aligned with the advancements of AI as well as the long-term goal of human civilization? This paper presents a blueprint for an advanced human society and leverages this vision to guide current AI safety efforts. It outlines a future where the Internet of Everything becomes reality, and creates a roadmap of significant technological advancements towards this envisioned future. For each stage of the advancements, this paper forecasts potential AI safety issues that humanity may face. By projecting current efforts against this blueprint, this paper examines the alignment between the current efforts and the long-term needs, and highlights unique challenges and missions that demand increasing attention from AI safety practitioners in the 2020s. This vision paper aims to offer a broader perspective on AI safety, emphasizing that our current efforts should not only address immediate concerns but also anticipate potential risks in the expanding AI landscape, thereby promoting a safe and sustainable future of AI and human civilization.