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Assessing and Predicting Air Pollution in Asia: A Regional and Temporal Study (2018-2023)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study analyzes and predicts air pollution in Asia, focusing on PM 2.5 levels from 2018 to 2023 across five regions: Central, East, South, Southeast, and West Asia. South Asia emerged as the most polluted region, with Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan consistently having the highest PM 2.5 levels and death rates, especially in Nepal, Pakistan, and India. East Asia showed the lowest pollution levels. K-means clustering categorized countries into high, moderate, and low pollution groups. The ARIMA model effectively predicted 2023 PM 2.5 levels (MAE: 3.99, MSE: 33.80, RMSE: 5.81, R: 0.86). The findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions to address severe pollution and health risks in South Asia.


One Model to Forecast Them All and in Entity Distributions Bind Them

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic forecasting in power systems often involves multi-entity datasets like households, feeders, and wind turbines, where generating reliable entity-specific forecasts presents significant challenges. Traditional approaches require training individual models for each entity, making them inefficient and hard to scale. This study addresses this problem using GUIDE-VAE, a conditional variational autoencoder that allows entity-specific probabilistic forecasting using a single model. GUIDE-VAE provides flexible outputs, ranging from interpretable point estimates to full probability distributions, thanks to its advanced covariance composition structure. These distributions capture uncertainty and temporal dependencies, offering richer insights than traditional methods. To evaluate our GUIDE-VAE-based forecaster, we use household electricity consumption data as a case study due to its multi-entity and highly stochastic nature. Experimental results demonstrate that GUIDE-VAE outperforms conventional quantile regression techniques across key metrics while ensuring scalability and versatility. These features make GUIDE-VAE a powerful and generalizable tool for probabilistic forecasting tasks, with potential applications beyond household electricity consumption.


Renewable Energy Prediction: A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Models for Complex Dataset Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing focus on predicting renewable energy production aligns with advancements in deep learning (DL). The inherent variability of renewable sources and the complexity of prediction methods require robust approaches, such as DL models, in the renewable energy sector. DL models are preferred over traditional machine learning (ML) because they capture complex, nonlinear relationships in renewable energy datasets. This study examines key factors influencing DL technique accuracy, including sampling and hyperparameter optimization, by comparing various methods and training and test ratios within a DL framework. Seven machine learning methods, LSTM, Stacked LSTM, CNN, CNN-LSTM, DNN, Time-Distributed MLP (TD-MLP), and Autoencoder (AE), are evaluated using a dataset combining weather and photovoltaic power output data from 12 locations. Regularization techniques such as early stopping, neuron dropout, L1 and L2 regularization are applied to address overfitting. The results demonstrate that the combination of early stopping, dropout, and L1 regularization provides the best performance to reduce overfitting in the CNN and TD-MLP models with larger training set, while the combination of early stopping, dropout, and L2 regularization is the most effective to reduce the overfitting in CNN-LSTM and AE models with smaller training set.


Visualizing the Local Atomic Environment Features of Machine Learning Interatomic Potential

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses the challenges of creating efficient and high-quality datasets for machine learning potential functions. We present a novel approach, termed DV-LAE (Difference Vectors based on Local Atomic Environments), which utilizes the properties of atomic local environments and employs histogram statistics to generate difference vectors. This technique facilitates dataset screening and optimization, effectively minimizing redundancy while maintaining data diversity. We have validated the optimized datasets in high-temperature and high-pressure hydrogen systems as well as the {\alpha}-Fe/H binary system, demonstrating a significant reduction in computational resource usage without compromising prediction accuracy. Additionally, our method has revealed new structures that emerge during simulations but were underrepresented in the initial training datasets. The redundancy in the datasets and the distribution of these new structures can be visually analyzed through the visualization of difference vectors. This approach enhances our understanding of the characteristics of these newly formed structures and their impact on physical processes.


FAVbot: An Autonomous Target Tracking Micro-Robot with Frequency Actuation Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robotic autonomy at centimeter scale requires compact and miniaturization-friendly actuation integrated with sensing and neural network processing assembly within a tiny form factor. Applications of such systems have witnessed significant advancements in recent years in fields such as healthcare, manufacturing, and post-disaster rescue. The system design at this scale puts stringent constraints on power consumption for both the sensory front-end and actuation back-end and the weight of the electronic assembly for robust operation. In this paper, we introduce FAVbot, the first autonomous mobile micro-robotic system integrated with a novel actuation mechanism and convolutional neural network (CNN) based computer vision - all integrated within a compact 3-cm form factor. The novel actuation mechanism utilizes mechanical resonance phenomenon to achieve frequency-controlled steering with a single piezoelectric actuator. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of FAVbot's frequency-controlled actuation, which offers a diverse selection of resonance modes with different motion characteristics. The actuation system is complemented with the vision front-end where a camera along with a microcontroller supports object detection for closed-loop control and autonomous target tracking. This enables adaptive navigation in dynamic environments. This work contributes to the evolving landscape of neural network-enabled micro-robotic systems showing the smallest autonomous robot built using controllable multi-directional single-actuator mechanism.


America's energy crisis is hiding in plain sight and it's worse than you know

FOX News

While headlines often scream about crises in the oil and gas sector, the real state of emergency in the U.S. lies elsewhere: in the outdated, unreliable, and vulnerable electrical grid. Ironically, as oil and gas production hits record highs, the energy industry and the country as a whole face a broader challenge--and a significant opportunity--in modernizing the infrastructure that distributes power to millions of homes, businesses, and importantly, Artificial Intelligence. The oil and gas industry in the United States is thriving. Advances in technology and operational efficiency have enabled this growth while requiring fewer workers, with many operations managed remotely or even overseas. The rallying cry of "drill, baby, drill" still symbolizes economic opportunity and investment, but in today's reality, it no longer equates to "jobs, baby, jobs."


Predictive Lagrangian Optimization for Constrained Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Constrained optimization is popularly seen in reinforcement learning for addressing complex control tasks. From the perspective of dynamic system, iteratively solving a constrained optimization problem can be framed as the temporal evolution of a feedback control system. Classical constrained optimization methods, such as penalty and Lagrangian approaches, inherently use proportional and integral feedback controllers. In this paper, we propose a more generic equivalence framework to build the connection between constrained optimization and feedback control system, for the purpose of developing more effective constrained RL algorithms. Firstly, we define that each step of the system evolution determines the Lagrange multiplier by solving a multiplier feedback optimal control problem (MFOCP). In this problem, the control input is multiplier, the state is policy parameters, the dynamics is described by policy gradient descent, and the objective is to minimize constraint violations. Then, we introduce a multiplier guided policy learning (MGPL) module to perform policy parameters updating. And we prove that the resulting optimal policy, achieved through alternating MFOCP and MGPL, aligns with the solution of the primal constrained RL problem, thereby establishing our equivalence framework. Furthermore, we point out that the existing PID Lagrangian is merely one special case within our framework that utilizes a PID controller. We also accommodate the integration of other various feedback controllers, thereby facilitating the development of new algorithms. As a representative, we employ model predictive control (MPC) as the feedback controller and consequently propose a new algorithm called predictive Lagrangian optimization (PLO). Numerical experiments demonstrate its superiority over the PID Lagrangian method, achieving a larger feasible region up to 7.2% and a comparable average reward.


Learning-Enhanced Safeguard Control for High-Relative-Degree Systems: Robust Optimization under Disturbances and Faults

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Merely pursuing performance may adversely affect the safety, while a conservative policy for safe exploration will degrade the performance. How to balance the safety and performance in learning-based control problems is an interesting yet challenging issue. This paper aims to enhance system performance with safety guarantee in solving the reinforcement learning (RL)-based optimal control problems of nonlinear systems subject to high-relative-degree state constraints and unknown time-varying disturbance/actuator faults. First, to combine control barrier functions (CBFs) with RL, a new type of CBFs, termed high-order reciprocal control barrier function (HO-RCBF) is proposed to deal with high-relative-degree constraints during the learning process. Then, the concept of gradient similarity is proposed to quantify the relationship between the gradient of safety and the gradient of performance. Finally, gradient manipulation and adaptive mechanisms are introduced in the safe RL framework to enhance the performance with a safety guarantee. Two simulation examples illustrate that the proposed safe RL framework can address high-relative-degree constraint, enhance safety robustness and improve system performance.


A Review on Self-Supervised Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection: Recent Advances and Open Challenges

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series anomaly detection presents various challenges due to the sequential and dynamic nature of time-dependent data. Traditional unsupervised methods frequently encounter difficulties in generalization, often overfitting to known normal patterns observed during training and struggling to adapt to unseen normality. In response to this limitation, self-supervised techniques for time series have garnered attention as a potential solution to undertake this obstacle and enhance the performance of anomaly detectors. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the recent methods that make use of self-supervised learning for time series anomaly detection. A taxonomy is proposed to categorize these methods based on their primary characteristics, facilitating a clear understanding of their diversity within this field. The information contained in this survey, along with additional details that will be periodically updated, is available on the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/Aitorzan3/Awesome-Self-Supervised-Time-Series-Anomaly-Detection.


A Game-Theoretic Framework for Distributed Load Balancing: Static and Dynamic Game Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motivated by applications in job scheduling, queuing networks, and load balancing in cyber-physical systems, we develop and analyze a game-theoretic framework to balance the load among servers in both static and dynamic settings. In these applications, jobs/tasks are often held by selfish entities that do not want to coordinate with each other, yet the goal is to balance the load among servers in a distributed manner. First, we provide a static game formulation in which each player holds a job with a certain processing requirement and wants to schedule it fractionally among a set of heterogeneous servers to minimize its average processing time. We show that this static game is a potential game and admits a pure Nash equilibrium (NE). In particular, the best-response dynamics converge to such an NE after $n$ iterations, where $n$ is the number of players. We then extend our results to a dynamic game setting, where jobs arrive and get processed in the system, and players observe the load (state) on the servers to decide how to schedule their jobs among the servers in order to minimize their averaged cumulative processing time. In this setting, we show that if the players update their strategies using dynamic best-response strategies, the system eventually becomes fully load-balanced and the players' strategies converge to the pure NE of the static game. In particular, we show that the convergence time scales only polynomially with respect to the game parameters. Finally, we provide numerical results to evaluate the performance of our proposed algorithms under both static and dynamic settings.