Energy
Retro-Rank-In: A Ranking-Based Approach for Inorganic Materials Synthesis Planning
Prein, Thorben, Pan, Elton, Haddouti, Sami, Lorenz, Marco, Jehkul, Janik, Wilk, Tymoteusz, Moran, Cansu, Fotiadis, Menelaos Panagiotis, Toshev, Artur P., Olivetti, Elsa, Rupp, Jennifer L. M.
Retrosynthesis strategically plans the synthesis of a chemical target compound from simpler, readily available precursor compounds. This process is critical for synthesizing novel inorganic materials, yet traditional methods in inorganic chemistry continue to rely on trial-and-error experimentation. Emerging machine-learning approaches struggle to generalize to entirely new reactions due to their reliance on known precursors, as they frame retrosynthesis as a multi-label classification task. To address these limitations, we propose Retro-Rank-In, a novel framework that reformulates the retrosynthesis problem by embedding target and precursor materials into a shared latent space and learning a pairwise ranker on a bipartite graph of inorganic compounds. We evaluate Retro-Rank-In's generalizability on challenging retrosynthesis dataset splits designed to mitigate data duplicates and overlaps. For instance, for Cr2AlB2, it correctly predicts the verified precursor pair CrB + Al despite never seeing them in training, a capability absent in prior work. Extensive experiments show that Retro-Rank-In sets a new state-of-the-art, particularly in out-of-distribution generalization and candidate set ranking, offering a powerful tool for accelerating inorganic material synthesis.
Conformal Prediction for Electricity Price Forecasting in the Day-Ahead and Real-Time Balancing Market
O'Connor, Ciaran, Bahloul, Mohamed, Rossi, Roberto, Prestwich, Steven, Visentin, Andrea
The integration of renewable energy into electricity markets poses significant challenges to price stability and increases the complexity of market operations. Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting is crucial for effective market participation, where price dynamics can be significantly more challenging to predict. Probabilistic forecasting, through prediction intervals, efficiently quantifies the inherent uncertainties in electricity prices, supporting better decision-making for market participants. This study explores the enhancement of probabilistic price prediction using Conformal Prediction (CP) techniques, specifically Ensemble Batch Prediction Intervals and Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference. These methods provide precise and reliable prediction intervals, outperforming traditional models in validity metrics. We propose an ensemble approach that combines the efficiency of quantile regression models with the robust coverage properties of time series adapted CP techniques. This ensemble delivers both narrow prediction intervals and high coverage, leading to more reliable and accurate forecasts. We further evaluate the practical implications of CP techniques through a simulated trading algorithm applied to a battery storage system. The ensemble approach demonstrates improved financial returns in energy trading in both the Day-Ahead and Balancing Markets, highlighting its practical benefits for market participants.
Convergent NMPC-based Reinforcement Learning Using Deep Expected Sarsa and Nonlinear Temporal Difference Learning
Salaje, Amine, Chevet, Thomas, Langlois, Nicolas
In this paper, we present a learning-based nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC) using an original reinforcement learning (RL) method to learn the optimal weights of the NMPC scheme. The controller is used as the current action-value function of a deep Expected Sarsa where the subsequent action-value function, usually obtained with a secondary NMPC, is approximated with a neural network (NN). With respect to existing methods, we add to the NN's input the current value of the NMPC's learned parameters so that the network is able to approximate the action-value function and stabilize the learning performance. Additionally, with the use of the NN, the real-time computational burden is approximately halved without affecting the closed-loop performance. Furthermore, we combine gradient temporal difference methods with parametrized NMPC as function approximator of the Expected Sarsa RL method to overcome the potential parameters divergence and instability issues when nonlinearities are present in the function approximation. The simulation result shows that the proposed approach converges to a locally optimal solution without instability problems.
Leveraging Hypernetworks and Learnable Kernels for Consumer Energy Forecasting Across Diverse Consumer Types
Danish, Muhammad Umair, Grolinger, Katarina
Consumer energy forecasting is essential for managing energy consumption and planning, directly influencing operational efficiency, cost reduction, personalized energy management, and sustainability efforts. In recent years, deep learning techniques, especially LSTMs and transformers, have been greatly successful in the field of energy consumption forecasting. Nevertheless, these techniques have difficulties in capturing complex and sudden variations, and, moreover, they are commonly examined only on a specific type of consumer (e.g., only offices, only schools). Consequently, this paper proposes HyperEnergy, a consumer energy forecasting strategy that leverages hypernetworks for improved modeling of complex patterns applicable across a diversity of consumers. Hypernetwork is responsible for predicting the parameters of the primary prediction network, in our case LSTM. A learnable adaptable kernel, comprised of polynomial and radial basis function kernels, is incorporated to enhance performance. The proposed HyperEnergy was evaluated on diverse consumers including, student residences, detached homes, a home with electric vehicle charging, and a townhouse. Across all consumer types, HyperEnergy consistently outperformed 10 other techniques, including state-of-the-art models such as LSTM, AttentionLSTM, and transformer.
Native Fortran Implementation of TensorFlow-Trained Deep and Bayesian Neural Networks
Furlong, Aidan, Zhao, Xingang, Salko, Bob, Wu, Xu
Over the past decade, the investigation of machine learning (ML) within the field of nuclear engineering has grown significantly. With many approaches reaching maturity, the next phase of investigation will determine the feasibility and usefulness of ML model implementation in a production setting. Several of the codes used for reactor design and assessment are primarily written in the Fortran language, which is not immediately compatible with TensorFlow-trained ML models. This study presents a framework for implementing deep neural networks (DNNs) and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) in Fortran, allowing for native execution without TensorFlow's C API, Python runtime, or ONNX conversion. Designed for ease of use and computational efficiency, the framework can be implemented in any Fortran code, supporting iterative solvers and UQ via ensembles or BNNs. Verification was performed using a two-input, one-output test case composed of a noisy sinusoid to compare Fortran-based predictions to those from TensorFlow. The DNN predictions showed negligible differences and achieved a 19.6x speedup, whereas the BNN predictions exhibited minor disagreement, plausibly due to differences in random number generation. An 8.0x speedup was noted for BNN inference. The approach was then further verified on a nuclear-relevant problem predicting critical heat flux (CHF), which demonstrated similar behavior along with significant computational gains. Discussion regarding the framework's successful integration into the CTF thermal-hydraulics code is also included, outlining its practical usefulness. Overall, this framework was shown to be effective at implementing both DNN and BNN model inference within Fortran, allowing for the continued study of ML-based methods in real-world nuclear applications.
Open Challenges in Time Series Anomaly Detection: An Industry Perspective
Current research in time-series anomaly detection is using definitions that miss critical aspects of how anomaly detection is commonly used in practice. We list several areas that are of practical relevance and that we believe are either under-investigated or missing entirely from the current discourse. Based on an investigation of systems deployed in a cloud environment, we motivate the areas of streaming algorithms, human-in-the-loop scenarios, point processes, conditional anomalies and populations analysis of time series. This paper serves as a motivation and call for action, including opportunities for theoretical and applied research, as well as for building new dataset and benchmarks.
Real Time Control of Tandem-Wing Experimental Platform Using Concerto Reinforcement Learning
Minghao, Zhang, Xiaojun, Yang, Zhihe, Wang, Liang, Wang
Recent advancements in motor technology and f abrication techniques, have significantly enhanced the performance of hover - capable flapping - wing aircraft, thereby demonstrating greater application flexibility [1 - 7] . Dragonfly - inspired hover - capable flapping - wing aircraft utilize a unique four - wing independent drive mechanism, enhancing maneuverability [8 - 11], Consequently, various types of dragonfly - inspired aircraft have been developed in recent years, including those employing mechanical structures to generate the reciprocating motions necessary for lift and asymmetric wing movements for control torques [12 - 14], as well as direct - drive aircraft utilizing miniature servo motors to simultaneously achieve reciprocating motions for lift and asymmetric wing movements for control torques [8, 15] . Among these, direct - drive biomimetic aircraft, with control architectures and manipulations more akin to conventional robotics [16] and leveraging direct - drive characteristics [17 - 20] for improved performance, have attracted significant research interest [10, 21, 22] . A typical example is the DDD - 1 aircraft, developed by the authors' team and illustrated in Fig.1 [9, 10, 22 - 25] . This platform faces significant challenges due to nonlinear, unsteady aerodynamic interactions resulting from its tandem wings [9, 10, 25] . While sufficient lift is generated to enable vertical motion along a track, achieving stable hovering remains challenging owing to the need for more sophisticated control strategies in the presence of additional aerodynamic interference from closely spac ed tandem wings compared to direct - drive dual - wing aircraft. To address this issue and maintain similarity with the DDD - 1 while circumventing the limitations that existing experiments cannot directly apply results to airborne biomimetic aircraft [26, 27], the Direct - Drive Tandem - Wing Experiment Platform (DDTWEP), as shown in Fig.2, equipped with a six - component balance, has been developed to explore the pitch, roll, and yaw control strategies of four - wing direct - drive biomimetic aircraft under the nonline ar and unsteady aerodynamic interference of tandem wings.
Drones, cameras and metal detectors: Edison faces new scrutiny over start of Eaton fire
Armed with drones, long-distance camera lenses and metal detectors, a hillside in Eaton Canyon has become the focus of intense scrutiny over the last month by teams of private investigators now seeking clues on whether Southern California Edison equipment caused the massive fire that destroyed large swaths of Altadena. Some of the findings and theories of these privately hired teams of fire investigators and electrical engineers have emerged in more than 40 lawsuits that residents have filed against the utility. Much of the focus has been centered on a group of transmission towers where the first flames were seen just as the Eaton fire exploded. Earlier this week, a new lawsuit alleged that an idle transmission tower on the hillside -- one that has not been in use for more than 50 years -- might have sparked the devastating blaze. With more than 9,000 homes lost and 17 people killed, liability is going to be a costly question that could affect how Altadena is rebuilt.
Explained: Generative AI's environmental impact
In a two-part series, MIT News explores the environmental implications of generative AI. In this article, we look at why this technology is so resource-intensive. A second piece will investigate what experts are doing to reduce genAI's carbon footprint and other impacts. The excitement surrounding potential benefits of generative AI, from improving worker productivity to advancing scientific research, is hard to ignore. While the explosive growth of this new technology has enabled rapid deployment of powerful models in many industries, the environmental consequences of this generative AI "gold rush" remain difficult to pin down, let alone mitigate.
Smart windows take a page from nature's pinecone playbook
Keep your home comfortable without using a single watt of electricity. Have you ever wondered how a pine cone knows when to open and close? Now, researchers have taken this cue from nature to create something pretty cool for our homes. Let's dive into how this revolutionary window technology works, keeping your home comfortable without using a single watt of electricity. GET SECURITY ALERTS, EXPERT TIPS - SIGN UP FOR KURT'S NEWSLETTER - THE CYBERGUY REPORT HERE Pine cones have these amazing scales that respond to moisture.