Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Time series forecasting presents unique challenges that limit the effectiveness of traditional machine learning algorithms. To address these limitations, various approaches have incorporated linear constraints into learning algorithms, such as generalized additive models and hierarchical forecasting. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for integrating and combining linear constraints in time series forecasting. Within this framework, we show that the exact minimizer of the constrained empirical risk can be computed efficiently using linear algebra alone. This approach allows for highly scalable implementations optimized for GPUs. We validate the proposed methodology through extensive benchmarking on real-world tasks, including electricity demand forecasting and tourism forecasting, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

This story was originally published on the author's substack, Field Notes with Alexander C Kaufman, to which you can subscribe here. Artificial intelligence is driving up demand for electricity--the only question is how much, and what provides the power. Over the next three years, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates, AI's thirst for power will double or triple. Last month, OpenAI unveiled its Stargate Project, a plan to invest 500 billion in the infrastructure for artificial intelligence over the next four years that includes adding 25 gigawatts of new electricity capacity. Right now, the most likely source of electricity to power those data centers is gas.

At least one person was killed and four others, including a nine-year-old child, were injured by a Russian missile strike in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, the city's mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said. The strike caused damage and fires in at least four areas of the city. Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a woman was killed by a Ukrainian drone in Russia's Belgorod region. Gladkov said the drone struck the victim's car and killed her instantly. Ukraine's military said it shot down six out of seven ballistic missiles launched by Russia in an overnight attack.

Russia may be forced to throttle back its oil output in the coming months as U.S. sanctions hamper its access to tankers to sail to Asia and Ukrainian drone attacks hobble its refineries. The United States imposed sanctions last month that targeted 180 Russian tankers while Kyiv has stepped up drone attacks to improve its bargaining position amid expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump will press Russian leader Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Trump has said stopping the conflict is a priority and that he could impose new sanctions on Russia if his goals are not achieved.

Language models are aligned to the collective voice of many, resulting in generic outputs that do not align with specific users' styles. In this work, we present Trial-Error-Explain In-Context Learning (TICL), a tuning-free method that personalizes language models for text generation tasks with fewer than 10 examples per user. TICL iteratively expands an in-context learning prompt via a trial-error-explain process, adding model-generated negative samples and explanations that provide fine-grained guidance towards a specific user's style. TICL achieves favorable win rates on pairwise comparisons with LLM-as-a-judge up to 91.5% against the previous state-of-the-art and outperforms competitive tuning-free baselines for personalized alignment tasks of writing emails, essays and news articles. Both lexical and qualitative analyses show that the negative samples and explanations enable language models to learn stylistic context more effectively and overcome the bias towards structural and formal phrases observed in their zero-shot outputs. By front-loading inference compute to create a user-specific in-context learning prompt that does not require extra generation steps at test time, TICL presents a novel yet simple approach for personalized alignment.

Unstructured grid data are essential for modelling complex geometries and dynamics in computational physics. Yet, their inherent irregularity presents significant challenges for conventional machine learning (ML) techniques. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advanced ML methodologies designed to handle unstructured grid data in high-dimensional dynamical systems. Key approaches discussed include graph neural networks, transformer models with spatial attention mechanisms, interpolation-integrated ML methods, and meshless techniques such as physics-informed neural networks. These methodologies have proven effective across diverse fields, including fluid dynamics and environmental simulations. This review is intended as a guidebook for computational scientists seeking to apply ML approaches to unstructured grid data in their domains, as well as for ML researchers looking to address challenges in computational physics. It places special focus on how ML methods can overcome the inherent limitations of traditional numerical techniques and, conversely, how insights from computational physics can inform ML development. To support benchmarking, this review also provides a summary of open-access datasets of unstructured grid data in computational physics. Finally, emerging directions such as generative models with unstructured data, reinforcement learning for mesh generation, and hybrid physics-data-driven paradigms are discussed to inspire future advancements in this evolving field.

We introduce a computationally efficient method for the automation of inverse design in science and engineering. Based on simple least-square regression, the underlying dynamic mode decomposition algorithm can be used to construct a low-rank subspace spanning multiple experiments in parameter space. The proposed inverse design dynamic mode composition (ID-DMD) algorithm leverages the computed low-dimensional subspace to enable fast digital design and optimization on laptop-level computing, including the potential to prescribe the dynamics themselves. Moreover, the method is robust to noise, physically interpretable, and can provide uncertainty quantification metrics. The architecture can also efficiently scale to large-scale design problems using randomized algorithms in the ID-DMD. The simplicity of the method and its implementation are highly attractive in practice, and the ID-DMD has been demonstrated to be an order of magnitude more accurate than competing methods while simultaneously being 3-5 orders faster on challenging engineering design problems ranging from structural vibrations to fluid dynamics. Due to its speed, robustness, interpretability, and ease-of-use, ID-DMD in comparison with other leading machine learning methods represents a significant advancement in data-driven methods for inverse design and optimization, promising a paradigm shift in how to approach inverse design in practice.

Analyzing development projects is crucial for understanding donors aid strategies, recipients priorities, and to assess development finance capacity to adress development issues by on-the-ground actions. In this area, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developments (OECD) Creditor Reporting System (CRS) dataset is a reference data source. This dataset provides a vast collection of project narratives from various sectors (approximately 5 million projects). While the OECD CRS provides a rich source of information on development strategies, it falls short in informing project purposes due to its reporting process based on donors self-declared main objectives and pre-defined industrial sectors. This research employs a novel approach that combines Machine Learning (ML) techniques, specifically Natural Language Processing (NLP), an innovative Python topic modeling technique called BERTopic, to categorise (cluster) and label development projects based on their narrative descriptions. By revealing existing yet hidden topics of development finance, this application of artificial intelligence enables a better understanding of donor priorities and overall development funding and provides methods to analyse public and private projects narratives.

Realistic driving simulation requires that NPCs not only mimic natural driving behaviors but also react to the behavior of other simulated agents. Recent developments in diffusion-based scenario generation focus on creating diverse and realistic traffic scenarios by jointly modelling the motion of all the agents in the scene. However, these traffic scenarios do not react when the motion of agents deviates from their modelled trajectories. For example, the ego-agent can be controlled by a stand along motion planner. To produce reactive scenarios with joint scenario models, the model must regenerate the scenario at each timestep based on new observations in a Model Predictive Control (MPC) fashion. Although reactive, this method is time-consuming, as one complete possible future for all NPCs is generated per simulation step. Alternatively, one can utilize an autoregressive model (AR) to predict only the immediate next-step future for all NPCs. Although faster, this method lacks the capability for advanced planning. We present a rolling diffusion based traffic scene generation model which mixes the benefits of both methods by predicting the next step future and simultaneously predicting partially noised further future steps at the same time. We show that such model is efficient compared to diffusion model based AR, achieving a beneficial compromise between reactivity and computational efficiency.